This Page Intentionally Left Blank Reducing Inflation Studies in Business Cycles Volume30 National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Research in Business Cycles Reducing Inflation Motivation and Strategy Christina D. Romer and Edited by David H. Romer The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London CHRISTINDA. ROMERis professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. DAVIDH . ROMERis professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London 0 1997 by the National Bureau of Economic Research All rights reserved. Published 1997 Printed in the United States of America 06050403020100999897 12345 ISBN: 0-226-72484-0 (cloth) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Reducing inflation : motivation and strategy /edited by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer. p. cm. - (Studies in business cycles; v. 30) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-226-72484-0 (cloth : alk. paper) I. Inflation (Finance) 2. Monetary policy. I. Romer, Christina. 11. Romer, David. 111. Series. HG229.R42 1997 332.4’ I -dc20 96-448 I1 CIP 8 The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI 239.48-1984. National Bureau of Economic Research Officers Paul W. McCracken, chairman Sam Parker, director ofjinance and corporate John H. Biggs, vice-chairman secretary Martin Feldstein, president and chief Susan Colligan, assistant corporate secretary executive oficer Deborah Mankiw, assistant corporate Gerald A. Polansky, treasurer secretary Directors at Large Peter C. Aldrich George C. Eads Robert T. Pany Elizabeth E. Bailey Martin Feldstein Peter G. Peterson John H. Biggs George Hatsopoulos Richard N. Rosett Andrew Brimmer Karen N. Horn Bert Seidman Carl F. Christ Lawrence R. Klein Kathleen P. Utgoff Don R. Conlan Leo Melamed Donald S. Wasserman Kathleen B. Cooper Merton H. Miller Marina v. N. Whitman Jean A. Crockett Michael H. Moskow John 0. Wilson Directors by University Appointment George Akerlof, California, Berkeley Joel Mokyr, Northwestern Jagdish Bhagwati, Columbia Andrew Postlewaite, Pennsylvania William C. Brainard, Yale Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford Glen G. Cain, Wisconsin Harold T. Shapiro, Princeton Franklin Fisher, Massachusetts Institute of Craig Swan, Minnesota Technology David B. Yoffie, Harvard Saul H. Hymans, Michigan Arnold Zellner, Chicago Marjorie B. McElroy, Duke Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Marcel Boyer, Canadian Economics Robert S. Hamada, American Finance Association Association Mark Drabenstott, American Agricultural Charles Lave, American Economic Economics Association Association William C. Dunkelberg, National Association Rudolph A. Oswald, American Federation of of Business Economists Labor and Congress of Industrial Richard A. Easterlin, Economic History Organizations Association Gerald A. Polansky, American Institute of Gail D. Fosler, The Conference Board Cert$ed Public Accountants A. Ronald Gallant, American Statistical Josh S. Weston, Committee for Economic Association Development Directors Emeriti Moses Abramovitz Franklin A. Lindsay George B. Roberts George T. Conklin, Jr. Paul W. McCracken Eli Shapiro Thomas D. Flynn Geoffrey H. Moore William S. Vickrey James J. 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The interval is allowed for the receipt of any memorandum of dissent or reservation, together with a brief statement of his reasons, that any member may wish to express; and such memorandum of dissent or reservation shall be published with thc manuscript if he so desires. Publication does not, however, imply that each member of the Board has read the manuscript, or that either members of the Board in general or the special committee have passed on its validity in every detail. 6. Publications of the National Bureau issued for informational purposes concerning the work of the Bureau and its staff, or issued to inform the public of activities of Bureau staff, and volumes issued as a result of various conferences involving the National Bureau shall contain a specific disclaimer noting that such publication has not passed through the normal review procedures re- quired in this resolution. The Executive Committee of the Board is charged with review of all such publications from time to time to ensure that they do not take on the character of formal research reports of the National Bureau, requiring formal Board approval. 7. Unless otherwise determined by the Board or exempted by the terms of paragraph 6, a copy of this resolution shall be printed in each National Bureau publication. (Re.wlutioii orloptrd October 25, 1926, as revised through Septembrr 30, 1974) Contents Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer 1. THEE FFECTSO F INFLATION 1. Why Do People Dislike Inflation? 13 Robert J. Shiller Comment: N. Gregory Mankiw 2. Does Inflation “Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market”? 71 David Card and Dean Hyslop Comment: John Shea 3. The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability 123 Martin Feldstein Comment: Andrew B. Abel 4. Disinflation and the NAIRU 167 Laurence Ball Comment: Olivier J. Blanchard 11. IMPROVINGT HE CONDUCOTF MONETARPYO LICY 5. How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment? 195 Douglas Staiger, James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson Comment: Alan B. Krueger vii viii Contents 6. America’s Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s 247 J. Bradford De Long Comment: John B. Taylor 7. Do “Shortages” Cause Inflation? 28 1 Owen Lamont Comment: Matthew D. Shapiro 111. THEC ONTRIBUTIOOFN M ONETARIYN STITUTIONS 8. Institutions for Monetary Stability 307 Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer Comment: Benjamin M. Friedman 9. Why Does Inflation Differ across Countries? 335 Marta Campillo and Jeffrey A. Miron Comment: Maurice Obstfeld 10. How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy 363 Richard Clarida and Mark Gertler Comment: Rudiger Dornbusch Contributors 413 Author Index 415 Subject Index 419
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