Recalibrating Alliance Contributions - RAND Corporation

320 Pages·2005·1.77 MB·English

by  Tatsuro Yoda

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Recalibrating Alliance
Contributions
Changing Policy Environment
and Military Alliances
Tatsuro Yoda
This document was submitted as a dissertation in June, 2005 in partial
fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at
the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and
approved the dissertation consisted of Charles Wolf, Jr. (Chair), Kevin Lewis,
and Greg Treverton. Richard Zeckhauser was the outside reader for
the dissertation.
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Abstract
According to the U.S. National Security Strategy in 2003, the U.S. needs to "strengthen
alliances to defeat global terrorism and work to prevent attacks against us and our friends." The
policy question explored in this study is how to encourage “our friends” to provide contributions
(alliance contributions) that are more beneficial to “us.”
In Part I, after reviewing previous research, I construct two conceptual models on alliance
contributions to analyze their change, or burden-shifting: the economic model and the policy process
model on alliance contributions. The first model is based on previous studies in public economics
and international relations. From this model, I found various kinds of conditions for the change in
provision of contributions in terms of types and sizes in relationship to the internal and external
environment. The second and complementary model is based on the agenda-setting theory in public
policy studies. From this model, I found a condition to bring about a large and sudden change in
alliance contributions.
In Part II, I apply an analytic framework based on the conceptual models to Japan’s
contributions to the U.S.-Japan alliance, for examining the validity of the models and showing their
practical utility for analysis. First, I examine Japan's Host Nation Support program (HNS) for the
U.S. Forces in Japan. Second, I examine Japan’s alliance contributions and the background
environment in the U.S.-Japan alliance during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. From those, I found key
causes to bring about the change of Japan's alliance contributions and that the causes support the
conditions pointed out in the theory.
In Part III, I analyze the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance based on the analytic framework
used above. First, I analyze the mid to long term case (10-20 years). I found the plausible direction of
changes in Japan’s alliance contributions, possible “fault lines” in the base case scenario, and how the
U.S. can influence the direction. Second, I analyze the short term case, focusing on the next Special
Measures Agreement for the HNS from April 2006. I found the plausible Japan’s stance towards the
SMA and effective U.S. negotiation tactics to it.
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Contents
Abstract iii
Tables and Figures vii
Acknowledgments xi
Chapter 1 Introduction 7
PART I THEORY
Chapter 2 Research background 13
Chapter 3 Two conceptual models on alliance contributions 23
PART II CASE STUDY
Chapter 4 Analytic framework for the U.S.-Japan security alliance 47
Chapter 5 Host Nation Support program (micro-analysis) 63
Chapter 6 Environment and alliance contributions (macro-analysis) 107
PART III APPLICATION
Chapter 7 Policy analysis on alliance contributions (mid-to-long term analysis) 207
Chapter 8 Policy analysis on Host Nation Support program (short-term analysis) 245
Chapter 9 Conclusion 277
Appendix 1 Environment variables 287
Appendix 2 Alliance contributions variables 292
Bibliography 295
v

Tables and Figures
Tables
Chapter 4
4.1 - Alliances that lasted more than 50 years (1816-2004) 49
4.2 – Element of Japan’s alliance contribution and its type 59
4.3 – Alliance contributions of Japan and their costs (2002) 61
4.4 – Alliance contributions of the U.S. and their costs 61
Chapter 6
6.1 – Change in environment-related variables 108
6.2 – Nuclear weapons in China 153
6.3 – Observed direction of change in Japan’s alliance contributions 169
6.4 - Japans’ participation in Peace Keeping Operations during the 1990s 179
6.5 - Japan’s international humanitarian relief activities during the 1990s 179
6.6 – Mid-Term Defense Program (MTDP) in the 1990s and early 2000s 190
6.7 – Change in exogenous variables and its potential effect on alliance contributions 191
6.8 – Change in environment-related variables 191
6.9 – Change in environment-related variables (related to the change in armament) 192
6.10 – Change in environment-related variables (related to the change in alliance autonomy) 192
6.11 – Observed direction of change in Japan’s alliance contributions 193
6.12 – Observed direction of change in Japan’s alliance contributions 193
Chapter 7
7.1 – Possible interdependencies among fault lines 241
Figures
Chapter 1
1.1 – Environment change and alliance 4
1.2 – Alliance contributions, alliance benefits and alliance goods (two-country alliance case) 5
Chapter 2
2.1 – Optimal level of deterrence for large and small allies 16
2.2 – Spillover effect of public goods 17
2.3 – Spillover effects of indivisible public goods 17
2.4 – Reaction curves in Tit for Tat (TFT) and one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) 22
Chapter 3
3.1 – Relationship among variables in alliance contribution model 24
3.2 – Dilemma of alliance, and relationship among alliance contributions, alliance, and
security in the economic model on alliance contributions 36
vii
3.3 – Block diagram on a conceptual feedback model on making policies and decisions
on alliance contributions 37
3.4 – Decision agenda, incrementalism and comprehensive-rational choice 41
Chapter 4
4.1 – Host Nation Support for U.S. forces in Japan (1978-2003, current price) 53
4.2 – Host Nation Support for U.S. forces in Japan (1978-2002, 1992 calendar year price) 54
4.3 – Host Nation Support as percentage of Japan’s GDP (1978-2003) 55
4.4 – Host Nation Support (in yen) and exchnage rate (dollar/yen) 55
4.5 – Local labor cost (converted to dollars) and its shares by the U.S. and Japan (1978-2002) 56
4.6 – Size and share of U.S. overseas stationing costs paid by allies (top 10 U.S. allies with
high share of stationing costs, 2001) 57
4.7 – Share of budget for equipment acquisition and Host Nation Support in defense
budget of Japan (1978-2003) 60
Chapter 5
5.1 – Nominal exchange rate (yen/dollar, annual average rate, 1967-2000) 67
5.2 – Number of Japanese Diet members whose questions in the Diet include Host
Nation Support (1978-2002) 78
5.3 – Number of newspaper articles on Host Nation Support (Asahi newspaper,
1984/1-2002/6) 79
5.4 – Number of newspaper articles on Host Nation Support (Yomiuri newspaper,
1986/1-2002/6) 79
5.5 - Number of Japanese diet members whose questions in the diet sessions
include Host Nation Support issues (1987 – 1991) 85
5.6 – Key factors in the policy process of the Host Nation Support program in the late 1970s 98
5.7 – Key factors in the policy process of the Host Nation Support program in the
mid to late 1980s 99
5.8 – Key factors in the policy process of the Host Nation Support program in the early 1990s 100
5.9 – Key factors in the policy-making process of the Host Nation Support program in
the mid to late 1990s 101
Chapter 6
6.1 – Gross domestic product of Japan (1967-2000, Unit: billion yen) 108
6.2 – Collective security and other arrangements in areas around Japan during the Cold War 113
6.3 – U.S. defense budget as percentage of GDP (1967-2000) 114
6.4 – Size of U.S. Army in the Asia and Pacific area (1967-1983) 118
6.5 – Size of U.S. Navy in the Asia and Pacific area (1967-1983) 118
6.6 – Size of U.S. Marine Corps in the Asia and Pacific area (1967-1983) 119
6.7 – Size of U.S. Air Force in the Asia and Pacific area (1967-1983) 119
6.8 – Size of U.S. Army in the Asia and Pacific area (1978-2001) 121
viii