Re: report link above

105 Pages·2012·3.24 MB·English

Life of the Land’s
Wayfinding:
Sowing the Seeds for
Transforming Energy Futures
Henry Curtis
(March 31, 2012)
1
Wayfinding Report
The State of Hawai`i should generate 90% of its electricity from distributed
renewable energy resources by 2025
Dedication
This Report is dedicated to the nearly 20,000 Americans who die each year
from fossil fuel air emissions & to the 100 millions of people worldwide who
will be displaced due to climate change.
Acknowledgments
I wish to thank Peggy Lucas Bond and Bob King for their suggestions and to
Sally Kaye for her thoughtful insight and superb editing of each draft of this
Report.
2
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Energy Efficiency
3. Continuous Energy Resources
4. Variable Energy Resources
5. Batteries
6. Moloka`i
7. Lana`i
8. Hawai`i
9. Maui
10. O`ahu
11. Kaua`i and Ni`ihau
12. The Future Utility and its Regulation
13. Summary
Appendix I: Comparative Costs
Acronyms
Glossary
References
3
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
This work is a follow-up to the chapter on Energy written by this author in "The
Value of Hawaii: Knowing the Past, Shaping the Future" (July 2010),1 which laid out
several competing scenarios or paths towards energy independence.
The author subsequently elaborated on one of the options: “Ocean Thermal Energy
Conversion (OTEC),” by discussing how each of the Hawaiian islands could be 100%
energy self-reliant for both electrical generation and ground, marine, and air
transportation by 2030 in: “Energy Independence for Hawai`i (2030) An Integrated
Approach to Economic Revitalization in a Culturally and Environmentally Sensitive
Way” (February 25, 2011).2
This Report now explores a second path forward: Distributed Generation, which
focuses on a decentralized, community-based model of energy self-sufficiency
utilizing local solutions. These are variously known as on-site generation, dispersed
generation, embedded generation, decentralized generation, and decentralized
energy.
Moving expeditiously to replace fossil-fuel-based electric generation makes great
economic sense. Each year Hawai`i buys 40 million barrels of oil from abroad. At
$100/barrel that is $4 billion dollars leaving the State. If in fact that money stayed
here, it would ripple through the economy, just as a rock dropped in the middle of a
pond sends ripples in all directions. Using the classic economic multiplier, DBEDT
estimates that each dollar invested locally adds three dollars to the economy. Thus
keeping $4 billion a year in Hawai`i would add $12 billion to State coffers. To put
this in easy-to-understand terms, the state Gross Domestic Product is $60 billion
per year, so adding $12 billion to the economy would result in 20% more economic
activity and a sharp rise in employment. This financial injection would provide
added tax revenue that would allow greater funding of core governmental functions
including education, health, and safety net programs.
In the traditional utility model, distribution lines brought electricity to every home.
In the modern, non-centralized utility model, homeowners, renters, businesses, and
industry can all produce most of their own power via rooftop solar and other
renewable technologies. It is the author’s belief that local communities will benefit
the most by moving to distributed renewable energy generation, and that local
communities should ultimately determine which resources are appropriate for their
homes and islands and which resources should not be deployed.
Unfortunately, Hawaiian Electric (HECO) and the State have elected to focus instead
on a different scenario, one based on a “Smart Grid,” which serves to perpetuate
the 19th century model of centralized energy system distribution.
1 Edited by CraigHowes and Jonathan Kay Kamakawiwo‘ole Osorio. Published for the Biographical
Research Center, University of Hawai‘i
2 http://www.lifeofthelandhawaii.org/Energy_Independence_for_Hawaii_2030.pdf
4
The essence of Smart Grid technology is to solve the problem of balancing supply
and demand by installing massive computers and telecommunication facilities in
order to have increasing top-down control over all aspects of generation,
transmission and use of energy. This will prove to be an extremely expensive
proposition.
Some Hawai`i energy “experts” believe in a Modified Smart Grid approach, where
smart grid technologies would be "in addition to," rather than "instead of," all
current primary resource options. These experts believe that smart grid
technologies will, in general, be the most cost effective means for optimizing the
integration of as-available and dispatchable renewable energy and energy storage
systems, at high renewable energy grid penetration levels.
The Smart Grid and the Modified Smart Grid both propose top-down centralized
control of the grid. The Smart Grid is advocated by those who feel that utility
control is paramount, and future renewable energy systems will only gradually be
interconnected to the grid. The Modified Smart Grid is advocated by those who
focus on developing and building renewable energy as quickly as possible, and view
making grid improvements the best way to achieve this.
The essence of Distributed Generation, on the other hand, is to balance supply and
demand by relying on small-scale, dispersed power generation systems located
adjacent to where the power is needed.
The Vortex
In the summer of 2010, Kris Mayes, Chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission3
(2009-10) spoke about “cascading natural deregulation” at an Institute of Electrical
and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) solar convention held at the Hawaiian Convention
Center.
She explained that “cascading natural deregulation” means that as the cost of
renewable systems trend downward and electric rates go up, those who can leave
the grid, will leave the grid, by building or installing on-site generation. The fixed
costs associated with energy production, transmission and distribution will then
have to be absorbed by the remaining smaller rate base. Thus, those who remain
will see their rates go up even more, causing more people to opt out of a
centralized grid, driving the rates for those who remain even higher. Under this
scenario, companies such as HECO would be sucked down into a bottomless vortex
and ultimately fail as a viable investor-owned corporation.
This could occur in Hawai`i first since the state not only has the highest utility rates
in the nation, and has held that record for decades, but also has some of the
3 The equivalent ofthe Hawaii Public UtilitiesCommission.
5
nation’s best alternative renewable sources in solar, wind, wave and geothermal
resources.
HECO is acutely aware of this. In the past few years the rate of solar installations
within Hawai`i has doubled each year. The number of renewable energy developers
who have made proposals to the utility for large-scale grid-connected renewable
energy projects has gone up ten-fold. The increasing use of various energy
efficiency systems are also driving down the demand for electricity. HECO, and its
subsidiaries Maui Electric (MECO) and Hawaii Electric Light (HELCO), experienced
peak energy use in 2004. Since then the demand for electricity has been dropping.
In anticipation of this dim future, the utility wrote the Hawai`i Clean Energy
Initiative (HCEI) in 2008. The document calls for the Legislature and the Hawaii
Public Utilities Commission to adopt policies to shield HECO from this impending
doomsday scenario. One such policy or concept is called “Decoupling.” This
mechanism states that the utility is entitled to a certain amount of profit, and as
sales drop they can automatically increase rates to keep their profits on target. The
PUC has already approved this mechanism.
An additional centerpiece of the HCEI is the development of industrial scale
renewable power plants that would require extensive cabling to send large amounts
of power to the primary load center, O`ahu.
Climate Change – one more reason to leave the grid
Moving away from fossil fuel use is not simply a matter of economics, but a matter
of slowing the rate of climate change.
As Life of the Land’s Vice President for Social Justice, Kat Brady, testified to the PUC
in 2009 in the matter of HECO’s proposed power plant at Campbell Industrial Park:
“The planet is in crisis. Global warming can no longer be ignored. The science is in
and the data is conclusive that global warming and climate change is primarily due
to the burning of fossil fuels. We no longer have a choice. We must change or
perish. The earth is in crisis and this proposed project does nothing to address the
fact that global warming is real - the planet is heating up faster than predicted and
the future is uncertain.”4
It is now a settled matter that ocean levels are rising due to the melting of land-
based glaciers and other snow and ice formations. While melting ice bergs do not
change the depth of the water, the oceans expand with rising temperatures. The
oceans are also becoming more acidic. Low lying areas are facing coastal erosion
and salt water intrusions into drinking water aquifers. Pacific Atolls and low-lying
islands are particularly vulnerable.
4 Testimony of Kat Brady, Vice President for Social Justice, Life of the Land, Hawai`i PublicUtilities
Commission, Docket No. 2005-0145, O`ahu Power Plant (“Brady LOL T-1”).
6
“The government of Tuvalu is in a quandary as salt water intrusion threatens their
aquifers and as they witness the loss of their shorelines and their food-producing
gardens to a rising sea. Tuvaluan officials have made arrangements with Aotearoa
(New Zealand) to relocate their people, but not all of the people want to leave.
Some fear the loss of their culture and would rather sink with the island than face
the cultural genocide of assimilation. The issue for Tuvalu is how to slow the
heating of the planet so that their culture will thrive in its homeland. Tuvaluans
have not caused the problem, but are suffering the very real impacts. Global
warming raises moral issues and health issues as well as scientific and
environmental issues.”5
Health Impacts
Continued use of fossil fuel also contributes to health issues. The National Academy
of Science, at the request of U.S. Congress, analyzed fossil fuel based air pollution
in 2010 (“Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production
and Use,”6 2010). The Report found that 20,000 people die prematurely each year
from fossil fuel air pollution, and that health impacts in the U.S. ($120 billion/year)
from the use of coal and oil were nearly equal. Pollen is an important trigger and
possible cause of asthma. Since higher temperatures and elevated atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations can promote the growth and earlier flowering of
pollen-producing plant species, the length and intensity of the pollen season and
expanding its geographical range is expanded.7
Although the report did NOT analyze the health impacts associated with global
warming; burning oil for trains, ships and planes; coal mining; and coal byproducts
dumped into streams and rivers,8 it did determine that renewable motor fuel (corn-
based ethanol) was slightly worse than gasoline in its environmental impact.
Ecosystems
According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service: “Conserving native species and
ecosystems is a challenging task that is destined to become progressively more
difficult as global climate change accelerates in the coming years. Temperature,
rainfall patterns, sea level and ocean chemistry, to name but a few, will move
beyond the range of our experience ...Climate change presents Pacific Islands with
unique challenges including rising temperatures, sea-level rise, contamination of
freshwater resources with saltwater, coastal erosion, an increase in extreme
weather events, coral reef bleaching, and ocean acidification. ...In Hawai‘i, the
seasonal and geographic distribution of rainfall and temperature has combined with
steep, mountainous terrain to produce a wide array of island-scale climate regimes.
5 Brady LOL T-1.
6 http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12794
7 http://www.epa.gov/iaq/pdfs/johngirman.pdf;
http://www.lung.org/associations/states/california/assets/pdfs/advocacy/global-warming-impacts-
public.pdf
8 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/20/science/earth/20fossil.html
7
These varying regimes in turn have supported the diversification of Hawai‘i native
plants and animals. Increasing amounts of human-caused greenhouse gases will
likely alter the archipelago’s terrestrial and marine environments.”9
The role that fossil fuel use by humans plays in contributing to climate change is
abundantly clear.
Proposed Solution
Rather than waiting for the inevitable escalating rate hikes, and for climate change
to reach crisis levels, communities should find ways of leaving the grid now. In the
process they can save money, increase the amount of revenue that stays and
circulates within their local communities, while creating local jobs, and decreasing
the environmental, social and cultural impacts associated with energy production,
transmission and use. Since each island has different resources and different
values it only makes sound social and economic sense to design each island system
differently.
9 http://www.fws.gov/pacific/Climatechange/changepi.html
8
CHAPTER II: ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Before turning to a discussion of island-specific potentials for distributed renewable
energy, a few facts about energy efficiency, the most cost-effective means to lower
costs for all islands, and firm and intermittent sources of energy.
Energy efficiency simply means doing the same work with less energy.
Hunter Lovins (co-founder of Rocky Mountain Institute, TIME Magazine's 2000
Millennium Hero of the Planet & the European financial community's 2008
Sustainability Pioneer) discussed energy efficiency at the Sustainable Hawaii
Conference (1997), co-sponsored by Maui Tomorrow and Maui's Grand Wailea
Resort.
Full of energy and positive outlook, Lovins is driven by the need to reduce wasteful
energy consumption -- "The key notion that makes getting off oil possible is
counter-intuitive: the best and cheapest ‘source’ of energy is not in fact supply, but
efficiency. Any effort in these directions will save money, increase American
national security, and help protect the environment. ... In nearly every case,
energy efficiency costs far less than the fuel or electricity it saves. It costs only
about 2 cents per kilowatt hour to save energy."10
Compact Fluorescent Light Bulb Light Emitting Diode (LED) Traffic
(CFL)11 Light12
CFL’s should replace incandescent light bulbs. Toy ovens, powered by an
incandescent light bulb, cooks food because practically all of the energy emerging
from the bulb is heat, not light. Buildings using incandescent lighting have to
remove this heat from rooms by using air conditioning. But by switching to CFLs, no
heat is created and the room does not need as much cooling.
A light-emitting diode (LED) is based on diode electronics. Currently they are
more expensive and require specific heat management and current specifications.
The advantages, however, include longer life, lower energy consumption and
smaller size.
10 “Makingit Last” by Hunter Lovins, August 10, 2004 http://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/can-we-
live-without-oil/1018
11 http://akagreen.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/cfl.jpg
12 http://www.fad.co.za/Diary/diary010/traffic-lights-led.jpg
9
Meters. Small devices can be installed between a plug and a wall outlet that
measure the flow to each device when the device is on. Phantom power loads refers
to the electricity used by a device when it is “off.” Often devices use almost as
much electricity in the off position, which is a "consumer" convenience allowing
quick starts.
The Energy Detective
(TED) costs between
$200-300 (depending on
the features desired) plus
the cost for an electrician
to install it. TED sends
real-time data every 10
minutes to either a
The Plug-in Energy Meter The Energy Detective14 customer's iGoogle gadget
& Electricity Cost or Google account.
Calculator13
Solar Water Heaters
Solar Screen15 Solar Water Heater16 Solar Water Heater
components17
Solar water heating, or a solar hot water system, uses water heated by solar
energy. Solar heating systems are generally composed of solar thermal collectors,
13 http://www.smarthome.com/11391/Plug-in-Energy-Meter-and-Electricity-Cost-Calculator/p.aspx
14 http://www.devicedaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/energy-detective.jpg
15 http://solarscreenusa.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/images/sun_solar.26322434_std.jpg
16 http://solar.calfinder.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/solar-water-heater-rooftop.jpg
17
http://www.energyeducation.tx.gov/renewables/section_3/topics/solar_water_heaters/img/fig20a_sol
ar_water.gif
10