RATIONING AND RATIONALITY IN THE NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE ECONOMIC ISSUES IN HEALTH CARE General editors Professor Gavin Mooney Dr Alistair McGuire Health Economics Research Unit Dept of Sociological Studies Dept of Public Health Wolfson College Medical School University of Oxford Aberdeen AN9 2ZD Oxford OX2 6UD The Challenges of Medical Practice Variations Edited by Tavs Folmer Andersen and Gavin Mooney (1990) Private Exchange and Public Interest By John Forbes (1990) Rationing and Rationality in the National Health Service Edited by Stephen J. Frankel and R. R. West (1993) Just Managing- Power and Culture in the NHS By Stephen Harrison, David J. Hunter, Gordon Marnoch and Christopher Pollitt (1993) Dental Care: An Economic View By David Parkin and Brian Yule (1990) RATIONING AND RATIONALITY IN THE NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE The Persistence of Waiting Lists Edited by Stephen Frankel and Robert West M MACMILLAN ©The editors and contributors 1993 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1993 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world ISBN 978-0-333-49007-5 ISBN 978-1-349-22553-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-22553-8 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Copy-edited and typeset by Cairns Craig Editorial, Edinburgh Contents List of Tables and Figures vi List of Contributors vii 1. The Origins of Waiting Lists 1 Stephen Frankel 2. Waiting Lists and Health Policy 15 John Cullis 3. Joining the Queue: Demand and Decision-making 42 Robert West 4. Opening the Gate: Referrals from Primary to Secondary Care 63 Stephen Farrow and David Jewell 5. Entering the Lobby: Access to Outpatient Assessment 80 Stephen Frankel and Margaret Robbins 6. And So to Bed: Access to Inpatient Services 96 Ian Harvey 7. What is to be Done? 115 Stephen Frankel and Robert West Bibliography 132 Index 149 v List of Tables and Figures TABLES 1.1 Patients on selected in-patient waiting lists 5 1.2 Critical categories of patients on selected in-patient waiting lists 6 1.3 The index of interest in various diagnoses 11 2.1 UK NHS expenditure as proportion of Gross 18 National Product (GNP) 2.2 NHS hospitals - number of in-patients on waiting list 19 2.3 An 'imputed' waiting list for California 24 2.4 A change in the 'implied' US waiting list 1979-82 26 2.5 Waiting lists and waiting times for Denmark 29 2.6 Illustrative service cost per QAL Y data 33 2.7 Mean and median waiting time (weeks) for typical waiting list conditions 1985 34 2.8 'Non-urgent' waiting in England and Wales (Sept. 1986) 35 2.9 Approaches to defining an optimum waiting list 39 FIGURES 1.1 Inpatient waiting lists and hospital throughput, England 4 2.1 Dealing with shortages: market v. state 17 2.2 California's medically uninsured, 1985 25 2.3 Health care systems: pictorial taxonomy 28 2.4 Waiting list management of QALYs 31 vi List of Contributors John Cullis School of Social Sciences University of Bath Claverton Down Bath BA2 7AY. Stephen Farrow Barnet Health Authority Colindale Hospital Colindale A venue London NW9 SHG. Stephen Frankel Health Care Evaluation Unit Department of Epidemiology and Public Health Medicine Canynge Hall Whiteladies Road Bristol BS8 2PR. Ian Harvey Health Care Evaluation Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health Medicine, Canynge Hall Whiteladies Road Bristol BS8 2PR. David Jewell General Practice Unit Department of Epidemiology and Public Health Medicine Canynge Hall Whiteladies Road Bristol BS8 2PR. vii viii List of Contributors Margaret Robbins Health Care Evaluation Unit Department of Epidemiology and Public Health Medicine Canynge Hall Whiteladies Road Bristol BS8 2PR. Robert West Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine University of Wales College of Medicine Heath Park Cardiff CF4 4XN. CHAPTER 1 The Origins of Waiting Lists Stephen Frankel The central observation underlying this book is that the National Health Service (NHS) appears to have selected for relative neglect those few con ditions where treatments are unequivocally effective, can be delivered at comparatively low cost, and are desired by the population. This outcome for over forty years' investment in health care would appear to fail any simple criteria of rationality. All health systems are now compelled to address the question of what are the true priorities amongst the range and volume of services which might ideally be provided. The broad thrust of the health econo mist's argument- that rational grounds must be sought for allocating finite resources in the face of overwhelming demands - is now broadly accepted. The current debate is concerned almost exclusively with how to make choices in resource allocation, rather than whether choices should be made. This intellectual consensus is now broken only by those phi losophers who point to the conflict between utilitarianism and the rights of individuals (Harris, 1988). The implication of the health economist's argument - that explicit rationing is preferable to the implicit rationing which characterises all health systems - is politically more contentious, but this too has been expressed in policy initiatives, both in the United States (Oregon Health Services Commission, 1991) and in Britain (Dean, 1991). The National Health Service was established as a 'comprehensive health service designed to secure improvement in the physical and men tal health of the people ... and the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of illness', and to do so 'free of charge' (NHS Act, 1946). Prior to the estab lishment of the NHS, health care rationing was determined by income, employment status and sex. Subsequent to its establishment, rationing for certain treatments has been ordered by willingness to wait. Waiting lists offer a device for blurring the boundaries of available provision by offering treatments where there may be no prospect that these treatments will be delivered. The recent reorganisation of the NHS (National Health Service and Community Care Act, 1990) was intended to redirect activity 1