Rationality and Social Responsibility: Essays in Honor of Robyn Mason Dawes (Modern Pioneers in Psychological Science: An Aps-Lea Series) PDF
Preview Rationality and Social Responsibility: Essays in Honor of Robyn Mason Dawes (Modern Pioneers in Psychological Science: An Aps-Lea Series)
RATIONALITY AND SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ER59969.indb 1 3/21/08 10:49:51 AM Modern Pioneers in Psychological science: an aPs-Psychology Press series This series celebrates the careers and contributions of a generation of pioneers in psychological science. Based on the proceedings of day-long Festschrift events at the annual meeting of the Association for Psycho- logical Science, each volume commemorates the research and life of an exceptionally influential scientist. These books document the profes- sional and personal milestones that have shaped the frontiers of prog- ress across a variety of areas, from theoretical discoveries to innovative applications and from experimental psychology to clinical research. The unifying element among the individuals and books in this series is a commitment to science as the key to understanding and improving the human condition. PUBLISHED TITLES 1. Psychological Clinical Science: Papers in Honor of Richard M. McFall, edited by Teresa A. Treat, Richard R. Bootzin, and Timothy B. Baker (2007). 2. Rationality and Social Responsibility: Essays in Honor of Robyn Mason Dawes, edited by Joachim I. Krueger (2008). ER59969.indb 2 3/21/08 10:49:52 AM RATIONALITY AND SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY Essays in Honor of Robyn Mason Dawes Edited by Joachim I. Krueger aps ASSOCIATION FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE ER59969.indb 3 3/21/08 10:49:52 AM Psychology Press Psychology Press Taylor & Francis Group Taylor & Francis Group 270 Madison Avenue 27 Church Road New York, NY 10016 Hove, East Sussex BN3 2FA © 2008 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Printed in the United States of America on acid‑free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number‑13: 978‑0‑8058‑5996‑6 (Hardcover) Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, trans‑ mitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data Rationality and social responsibility : essays in honor of Robyn Mason Dawes / editor, Joachim I. Krueger. p. cm. ‑‑ (Modern pioneers in psychological science) (An APS‑LEA series) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978‑0‑8058‑5996‑6 (alk. paper) 1. Reasoning (Psychology) 2. Thought and thinking. 3. Decision making. 4. Responsibility. I. Dawes, Robyn M., 1936‑ II. Krueger, Joachim I. BF442.R37 2008 153.4‑‑dc22 2007045940 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the Psychology Press Web site at http://www.psypress.com ER59969.indb 4 3/21/08 10:49:52 AM contents Acknowledgments vii Chapter 1 A Psychologist between Logos and Ethos 1 JoAChIm I. KRuEgER Chapter 2 The gambler’s Fallacy and the Coin’s memory 21 ERIC goLd goRdon hESTER Chapter 3 Being an Advocate for Linear models of Judgment Is not an Easy Life 47 hAL R. ARKES Chapter 4 What makes Improper Linear models Tick? 71 JASon dAnA Chapter 5 Why meta-Science Should Be Irresistible to decision Researchers 91 dAvId FAuST Chapter 6 The Robust Beauty of Simple Associations 111 JoAChIm I. KRuEgER Chapter 7 When It Is Rational for the majority to Believe That They Are Better Than Average 141 don mooRE dEBoRAh SmALL ER59969.indb 5 3/21/08 10:49:52 AM i • Contents Chapter 8 Wishful Thinking in Predicting World Cup Results 175 mAyA BAR-hILLEL dAvId v. BudESCu moTy AmAR Chapter 9 how Expectations Affect Behavior 187 CRISTInA BICChIERI Chapter 10 depersonalized Trust and Ingroup Cooperation 215 mARILynn B. BREWER Chapter 11 must good guys Finish Last? 233 dAvId mESSICK Chapter 12 Women’s Beliefs about Breast Cancer Risk Factors: A mental models Approach 245 STEPhAnIE J. ByRAm LISA m. SChWARTz STEvEn WoLoShIn BARuCh FISChhoFF Chapter 13 groups and the Evolution of good Stories and good Choices 275 LInndA R. CAPoRAEL Appendix 1 The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear models in decision making 321 RoByn m. dAWES Appendix 2 Behavior, Communication, and Assumptions about other People’s Behavior in a Commons dilemma Situation 345 RoByn m. dAWES JEAnnE mCTAvISh hARRIET ShAKLEE Appendix 3 Robyn m. dawes’s Festschrift Remarks 363 Appendix 4 Robyn m. dawes’s Biography and Selected Work 365 Contributors 371 Subject Index 377 Author Index 383 ER59969.indb 6 3/21/08 10:49:53 AM acknowledgMents Robyn m. dawes was honored in a day-long symposium on may 29, 2005, as part of the 17th Annual Convention of the Association for Psy- chological Science (APS) in Los Angeles, California. most of the chap- ters collected in this volume are records of contributions to this event. other chapters were solicited after the symposium. The production of this Festschrift was supported by grants of the Association for Psychological Science, The Society for Judgment and decision making, Carnegie mellon university (College of Arts and Sci- ences and department of Social and decision Sciences), and Lawrence Erlbaum and Associates. We gratefully acknowledge their support. ii ER59969.indb 7 3/21/08 10:49:53 AM ER59969.indb 8 3/21/08 10:49:53 AM 1 a Psychologist Between logos and ethos Joachim I. Krueger Brown University At the 17th Annual Convention of the Association for Psychological Science, Los Angeles, may 29, 2005, Robyn mason dawes was honored with a Festschrift conference. Following a convivial banquet on the eve of the Festschrift symposium, several of Robyn’s friends and colleagues presented papers on recent research that was, in one way or another, indebted to his intellectual inspiration over the years. This volume is composed of chapter-length reports of most of these research enter- prises as well as some chapters authored by individuals who did not speak at the symposium. With characteristic modesty, Robyn requested that the contributors present their finest work and refrain from empha- sizing his contributions to these efforts. It falls on this introductory chapter to provide the overarching context for these lines of research and a sense of Robyn’s abiding influence. It is fitting to begin with a biographical note. Robyn entered the graduate program in clinical psychology at the university of michi- gan in 1958. his stint in that program included some experiences that shaped his outlook on psychological science for years to come. Robyn noticed that clinical psychology was caught between the two frames of being seen as an art and a science. In his view, the latter was neglected. he found that scientific advances showing the limits of clinical diagno- sis were being ignored. In one poignant instance, Robyn was asked to administer a Rorschach test to a 16-year old girl who had been admit- ted because of sexual relations with an older man, which had led to ER59969.indb 1 3/21/08 10:49:53 AM
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