(cid:2) Quantitative Momentum (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing companyintheUnitedStates.WithofficesinNorthAmerica,Europe,Aus- tralia and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional andpersonalknowledgeandunderstanding. TheWileyFinanceseriescontainsbookswrittenspecificallyforfinance and investment professionals, as well as sophisticated individual investors and their financial advisers. Book topics range from portfolio management toe-commerce,riskmanagement,financialengineering,valuationandfinan- cialinstrumentanalysis,aswellasmuchmore. Foralistofavailabletitles,visitourwebsiteatwww.WileyFinance.com. (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) Quantitative Momentum A Practitioner’s Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System (cid:2) (cid:2) WESLEY R. GRAY JACK R. VOGEL (cid:2) (cid:2) Copyright©2016byWesleyR.GrayandJackR.Vogel.Allrightsreserved. PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey. PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedin anyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,or otherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyright Act,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthrough paymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetotheCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222 RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,(978)750-8400,fax(978)646-8600,orontheWeb atwww.copyright.com.RequeststothePublisherforpermissionshouldbeaddressedtothe PermissionsDepartment,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030, (201)748-6011,fax(201)748-6008,oronlineathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheirbest effortsinpreparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttothe accuracyorcompletenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimplied warrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybecreated orextendedbysalesrepresentativesorwrittensalesmaterials.Theadviceandstrategies containedhereinmaynotbesuitableforyoursituation.Youshouldconsultwitha professionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernorauthorshallbeliableforanyloss ofprofitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnotlimitedtospecial,incidental, consequential,orotherdamages. Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport,please (cid:2) contactourCustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800)762-2974,outside (cid:2) theUnitedStatesat(317)572-3993orfax(317)572-4002. Wileypublishesinavarietyofprintandelectronicformatsandbyprint-on-demand.Some materialincludedwithstandardprintversionsofthisbookmaynotbeincludedine-booksor inprint-on-demand.IfthisbookreferstomediasuchasaCDorDVDthatisnotincludedin theversionyoupurchased,youmaydownloadthismaterialathttp://booksupport.wiley.com. FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts,visitwww.wiley.com. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData: Names:Gray,WesleyR.,author.|Vogel,JackR.,1983-author. Title:Quantitativemomentum:apractitioner’sguidetobuildinga momentum-basedstockselectionsystem/WesleyR.Gray,JackR.Vogel. Description:Hoboken,NewJersey:JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,[2016]|Series: Wileyfinanceseries|Includesindex. Identifiers:LCCN2016023789(print)|LCCN2016035370(ebook)|ISBN 9781119237198(cloth)|ISBN9781119237266(pdf)|ISBN9781119237259 (epub) Subjects:LCSH:Stocks.|Investments.|Technicalanalysis(Investment analysis) Classification:LCCHG4661.G6762016(print)|LCCHG4661(ebook)|DDC 332.63/2042—dc23 LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2016023789 Coverimage:Wiley Coverdesign:©FrankRohde/Shutterstock PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 10987654321 (cid:2) (cid:2) Buy cheap; buy strong; hold ’em long. —Wes and Jack (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2) Contents Preface ix Acknowledgments xi AbouttheAuthors xiii PARTONE UnderstandingMomentum 1 CHAPTER1 (cid:2) (cid:2) LessReligion;MoreReason 3 CHAPTER2 WhyCanActiveInvestmentStrategiesWork? 14 CHAPTER3 MomentumInvestingIsNotGrowthInvesting 43 CHAPTER4 WhyAllValueInvestorsNeedMomentum 62 PARTTWO BuildingaMomentum-BasedStockSelectionModel 77 CHAPTER5 TheBasicsofBuildingaMomentumStrategy 79 CHAPTER6 MaximizingMomentum:ThePathMatters 93 vii (cid:2) (cid:2) viii CONTENTS CHAPTER7 MomentumInvestorsNeedtoKnowTheirSeasons 107 CHAPTER8 QuantitativeMomentumBeatstheMarket 120 CHAPTER9 MakingMomentumWorkinPractice 144 APPENDIXA InvestigatingAlternativeMomentumConcepts 155 APPENDIXB PerformanceStatisticsDefinitions 175 AbouttheCompanionWebsite 176 Index 177 (cid:2) (cid:2) (cid:2)
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