Quantitative Methods for Current Environmental Issues PDF
Preview Quantitative Methods for Current Environmental Issues
Quantitative Methods for Current Environmental Issues Springer London Berlin Heidelberg New York Barcelona HongKong Milan Paris Singapore Tokyo Clive W. Anderson, Vic Barnett, Philip C. Chatwin and Abdel H. EI-Shaarawi (Eds) Quantitative Methods for Current Environmental Issues With104Figures Springer CliveW.Anderson,MA,MSc,PhD SchoolofMathematicsandStatistics,UniversityofSheffield,TheHicksBuilding, SheffieldS37RH,UK VicBarnett,MSc,PhD,DSc,PIS SchoolofMathematicalSciences,UniversityofNottingham,UniversityPark, NottinghamNG72RD,UK PhilipC.Chatwin,MA,PhD,PSS SchoolofMathematicsandStatistics,UniversityofSheffield,TheHicksBuilding, SheffieldS37RH,UK AbdelH.EI-Shaarawi,PhD NationalWaterResearchInstitute,867LakeshoreRoad,Burlington, OntarioL7R4A6,Canada BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Quantitativemethodsforcurrentenvironmentalissues 1.Environmentalsciences- Statisticalmethods-Congresses 2.Environmentalmonitoring- Statisticalmethods-Congresses I.Anderson,C.W.(CliveWilliam),1944- 333.7'015195 ISBN-13:978-1-4471-1171-9 e-ISBN-13:978-1-4471-0657-9 DOl:10.1007/978-1-4471-0657-9 LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Quantitativemethodsforcurrentenvironmentalissues1CliveAnderson...[etal.I,eds. p. em. Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN-13:978-1-4471-1171-9(alk.paper) 1.Environmentalsciences-Statisticalmethods-Congresses. I.Anderson,C.W. (CliveW.) II.TIES/SPRUCE2000(2000:UniversityofSheffield) GE45.S73 Q36 2002 363.7'007'27-dc21 2001055021 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposesofresearch or private study, orcriticism or review, as permittedundertheCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,thispublicationmayonlybereproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing ofthe publishers,orinthecaseofreprographicreproductioninaccordancewiththetermsoflicencesissued bytheCopyrightLicensingAgency. Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethosetermsshouldbe senttothepublishers. ISBN-13:978-1-4471-1171-9 Springer-VerlagLondonBerlinHeidelberg amemberofBertelsmannSpringerScience+BusinessMediaGmbH http://www.springer.co.uk ©Springer-VerlagLondonLimited2002 Softcoverreprintofthehardcover1stedition2002 Theuseofregisterednames,trademarks,etc.inthispublicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofa specificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevantlawsandregulationsandthereforefree forgeneraluse. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied. with regard to the accuracy of the informationcontainedinthisbookandcannotacceptanylegalresponsibilityorliabilityforanyerrors oromissionsthatmaybemade. Typesetting:Camera-readybytheeditorsandThomasUnger 12/3830-543210 SPIN10761755 Preface One result of the developing public interest in and concern about environ mental issues in recent years has been an increased worldwide emphasis on relevant research. During the 1990s, two organizations were established that fostered this research, particularly its quantitative aspects. They were TIES (TheInternational EnvironmetricsSociety) and SPRUCE (Statistics in Public Resources, Utilities and in Care ofthe Environment). Amongst their varied activities has been the holding of regular and successful conferences. It was perhaps inevitable that the two organizations would one day hold a joint conference, and the first ofthese - TIES/SPRUCE 2000 - took place at the University ofSheffield, UK from 4 - 8 September 2000. The conference was organized to incorporate the most successful practices of previous meetings of both TIES and SPRUCE. It was considered specially important to emphasize the essentially multidisciplinary nature of research intoenvironmental issues. The best quantitative work in thefield requiresex pertise both in the underlyingscience and in statistical and/or mathematical methods. Such work is becoming more widespread as understanding deep ens and new collaborations are formed, but it remains difficult. It is hoped that conferences such as TIES/SPRUCE 2000 can help promote the necessary awareness and communication of ideas fundamental to such work, and can add something to the experience of participants which will place them in a stronger position to emphasize the need for new combinations ofskills in the training ofyoung research scientists. The theme of TIES/SPRUCE 2000 was Quantitative Methods in Current En vironmental Issues. Eleven distinguished scientists or engineers gave invited plenary lectures. They were: Julian Besag University of Washington, Seattle, USA Steve Buckland University ofSt Andrews, UK (J Stuart Hunter Lecturer) Brad Carlin University ofMinnesota, USA Joe Chang George Mason University, Virginia, USA Dave Higdon Duke University, North Carolina, USA Gudmund Host Norwegian Computing Centre, Oslo, Norway Jim McQuaid University ofSheffield, UK Tony 0'Hagan University ofSheffield, UK Paul Sampson University of Washington, Seattle, USA Hans Wackernagel Ecole des Mines de Paris, Fontainebleau, France Lucy Wyatt University ofSheffield, UK vi Preface This book contains articles based on nine of these presentations, together with three others based on peer-reviewed contributed papers (ofwhich there were more than 70). The articles are grouped around the themes of Spatial and Temporal Models and Methods, Environmental Sampling and Standards, Atmosphere and Ocean, and Risk and Uncertainty. The success ofTIES/SPRUCE 2000 owed much to the enthusiasm and hard work of the Organizing Committee. The Co-Chairs (Clive Anderson and Philip Chatwin) wish to record their thanks to Nils Mole, above all, and also to Paul Blackwell, Nirvana Bloor, Nancy Doss, Marianna Keray, Richard Martin, Maged Messeh, Rick Munro, Ruth Parker and Robertus von Fay Siebenburgen. The present volume contains a selection of the most important work now being undertaken on quantitative aspects of environmental issues. We hope it will prove interesting and valuable. Clive Anderson Vic Barnett Philip Chatwin Abdel EI-Shaarawi Sheffield Nottingham Burlington Contents Part I. Spatial and Temporal Models and Methods 1 Modeling Spatio-Temporally Misaligned Areal and Point Process Environmental Data 3 Bradley P. Carlin, Andrew S. Mugglin, Li Zhu, and Alan E. Gelfand 1.1 Introduction............................................ 4 1.2 Misaligned Areal Data Model Development ................. 5 1.3 Example: Radon Exposure near an Ohio Contamination Source 11 1.4 Misaligned Point-Block Data Model Development 18 1.5 Example: Ozone Exposure by Zip Code in Atlanta. .......... 24 1.6 Summary and Discussion. ................................ 30 References 31 2 Space and Space-Time Modeling using Process Convolutions 37 Dave Higdon 2.1 Introduction............................................ 37 2.2 Constructing Spatial Models via Moving Averages. .......... 38 2.3 Basic Spatial Model 42 2.4 A Multiresolution Model .............................. 45 2.5 Building Space-Time Models. ............................. 48 2.6 Discussion.............................................. 52 Appendix. ................................ ... ............... 52 References 54 3 Multivariate Kriging for Interpolating with Data from Different Sources. .. ......................... ............ ..... 57 H. Wackernagel, L. Bertino, J. P. Sierra, and J. Gonzalez del Rio 3.1 Introduction............................................ 57 3.2 Data from Different Sources. ............................. 58 3.3 Simple and Ordinary Cokriging ........................... 59 3.4 Cokriging with External Drifts. ........................... 60 3.5 Cokriging Neighborhood 61 3.6 Ebro Case Study ........................................ 64 References 74 viii Contents Part II. Environmental Sampling and Standards 4 Distance Sampling: Recent Advances and Future Directions .................................................... 79 S. T. Buckland, L. Thomas, F. F. C. Marques, S. Strindberg, S. L. Hedley, J. H. Pollard, D. L. Borchers, and M. L. Burt 4.1 Introduction............................................ 79 4.2 Standard Distance Sampling Methods. ..................... 81 4.3 Covariate Models for the Detection Function. ............... 83 4.4 Double-Platform Methods. ............................... 85 4.5 Spatial Distance Sampling Models. ........................ 87 4.6 Indirect Distance Sampling Surveys. ....................... 88 4.7 Automated Design Algorithms. ........................... 89 4.8 Adaptive Distance Sampling. ............................. 91 4.9 The Software DISTANCE. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 94 4.10 State-Space Models for Trend. ............................ 94 4.11 Discussion.............................................. 95 References ........................................ 96 5 Setting Environmental Standards: A Statistical Approach. 99 Vic Barnett and Marion Bown 5.1 Background............................................ 99 5.2 Setting a Statistically Verifiable Ideal Standard 102 5.3 A Best Linear Unbiased Quantile Estimator 103 5.4 Example: Copper Levels in River Water 106 5.5 Conclusion............................................. 107 References 108 Part III. Atmosphere and Ocean 6 The Interpretation and Validation ofMeasurements ofthe Ocean Wave Directional Spectrum ..................... 113 Lucy R. Wyatt 6.1 Introduction 113 6.2 The Statistical Description ofthe Sea Surface 114 6.3 Measurement Techniques 115 6.4 Validation/Intercomparison Issues 117 6.5 Methods Used and their Application 118 6.6 Concluding Remarks 125 References 127 Contents ix 7 Thermal Energy Emission and Propagation from Accidents 129 A. Pelliccioni, F. Altavilla, and S. Berardi 7.1 Introduction 129 7.2 Heat Transfer Theory 131 7.3 Global Radiative Model Architecture and Application 136 7.4 Comments on Model Results 140 7.5 Conclusions 144 References 145 8 Development and Application ofan Extended Methodology to Validate Short-Range Atmospheric Dispersion Models 147 Harry Eleveld and Harry Slaper 8.1 Introduction 147 8.2 Model Validation Tool 148 8.3 Descriptions ofDispersion Models TADMOD and TSTEP 151 8.4 Results and Discussion 152 8.5 Conclusions 160 Appendices 161 References 164 9 Uncertainty and Sensitivity ofDispersion Model Results to Meteorological Inputs: Two Case Studies 167 Joseph C. Chang 9.1 Introduction 168 9.2 Model Evaluation and Sensitivity Study with Dipole Pride 26 . 170 9.3 Persian Gulf War Exposure Study 187 9.4 Conclusions 197 References 199 Part IV. Risk and Uncertainty 10 Statistics and the Environmental Sciences: Approaches to Model Combination 207 Gudmund H{list 10.1 Introduction 207 10.2 Statistical Framework 208 10.3 Examples 212 10.4 Discussion 224 References .... .............................................. 225 x Contents 11 Bayesian Analysis of Computer Code Outputs 227 Marc C. Kennedy, Anthony O'Hagan, and Neil Higgins 11.1 Analysis of Computer Code Outputs 227 11.2 Bayesian Methods 231 11.3 Windscale Nuclear Accident 234 11.4 Discussion 241 References ........................................ 242 12 The Realities ofDecision Making on Risks ............... 245 Jim McQuaid 12.1 Introduction 245 12.2 Decision Making on Health and Safety 246 12.3 Changing Nature of Risk Debates 248 12.4 Changing Influence ofScience 251 12.5 Public Responses to Risk Issues 252 12.6 Features of the Public Debate on Risk Decision Making 253 12.7 Risk-Based Approach to Regulation 256 12.8 Risk Assessment 258 12.9 Strengths and Limitations ofRisk Assessment 259 12.10 Concluding Remarks 261 References 261 Index 265
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