Springer Series on Evidence-Based Crime Policy SeriesEditors: LawrenceW.Sherman,UniversityofPennsylvania HeatherStrang,AustralianNationalUniversity Crime prevention and criminal justice policies are domains of great and growing importancearoundtheworld.Despitetherigorousresearchdoneinthisfield,policy decisions are often based more on ideology or speculation than on science. One reason for this may be a lack of comprehensive presentations of the key research affecting policy deliberations. While scientific studies of crime prevention and criminal policy have become more numerous in recent years, they remain widely scattered across a wide range of journals and countries. The Springer Series on Evidence-Based Crime Policy aims to pull this evidence together while presenting newresearchresults.Thiscombination ineachbookshouldprovide,betweentwo covers(orinelectronicsearches),thebestevidenceoneachtopicofcrimepolicy. The series will publish primary research on crime policies and criminal justice practices, raising critical questions or providing guidance to policy change. The series will try to make it easier for research findings to become key components in decisions about crime and justice policy. The editors welcome proposals for bothmonographsandeditedvolumes.Therewillbeaspecialemphasisonstudies using rigorous methods (especially field experiments) to assess crime prevention interventions in areas such as policing, corrections, juvenile justice and crime prevention. PublishedinCooperationwiththeCampbellCrimeandJusticeGroup Forfurthervolumes: http://www.springer.com/series/8396 · Bruce J. Doran Melissa B. Burgess Putting Fear of Crime on the Map Investigating Perceptions of Crime Using Geographic Information Systems 123 BruceJ.Doran MelissaB.Burgess FennerSchoolofEnvironment&Society FennerSchoolofEnvironment&Society TheAustralianNationalUniversity TheAustralianNationalUniversity Canberra,ACT2601,Australia Canberra,ACT2601,Australia [email protected] ISBN978-1-4419-5646-0 e-ISBN978-1-4419-5647-7 DOI10.1007/978-1-4419-5647-7 SpringerNewYorkDordrechtHeidelbergLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2011934029 ©SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC2012 Allrightsreserved.Thisworkmaynotbetranslatedorcopiedinwholeorinpartwithoutthewritten permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY10013,USA),exceptforbriefexcerptsinconnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysis.Usein connectionwithanyformofinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware, orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdevelopedisforbidden. Theuseinthispublicationoftradenames,trademarks,servicemarks,andsimilarterms,eveniftheyare notidentifiedassuch,isnottobetakenasanexpressionofopinionastowhetherornottheyaresubject toproprietaryrights. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Dedication We would like to dedicate this book to the many survey participants who gave willingly their time and experience – without their contribution, the research in Wollongong and Kings Cross would not have been possible. The two-stage interview process used in the Wollongong study provided a means for informal discussions in addition to the survey itself. Very often people chose to share their thoughts on policing or crime in the area and to describe personal experiences, or thoseofworkcolleagues,friendsorfamily.Thefollowingaccountsarethestories of some of the participants and in many ways these personal reflections provide powerfulinsightsintotheimpactoffearofcrimeatanindividuallevel. ARealEstateAgentLeaves At the time of the survey, Amelia1 worked in the Piccadilly area of Wollongong. Shewasacommunity-mindedpersonwhotookgreatprideinthefactthatshehad raised a number of adopted children and was a key person in the local business community. She worked for a real estate agency and was based in the Piccadilly shopping mall, the key feature of the precinct and a focus of crime, disorder and fearintheCBDarea.Themall,despitebeingnexttothemainrailwaystationthat commutersusedtoaccesstheCBD,waspoorlyutilized.Theareahadlongproven to be a serious challenge for the police, the Wollongong City Council (WCC) and businessresidentsofthelocalcommunity. Amelia firmly believed that her job provided her with the potential to make positive changes in the area. As a senior real estate agent who primarily dealt in commercialproperty,shewasabletoencouragebuyerswhoshefeltwerelikelyto have a beneficial presence in the area. An example of this was the ongoing nego- tiations she was handling with a university who were considering the purchase of a motel above the mall. It was well known that the motel functioned as an infor- mal brothel and centre for drug dealing. Amelia felt that a university-run research 1Thenamesofrespondentshavebeenchangedtoprotectprivacy,butthecontentoftheirstories havenotbeenaltered. v vi Dedication facility would dramatically change the dynamics. One afternoon while locking up theshopfrontfortheagency,Ameliawasapproachedfrombehindanddousedwith petrol.Shewasthenconfrontedbyadrugaddictsheknewwell–someoneshewas notnormallybotheredbybutwho,onthisoccasion,washighanddidnotseemto recognizeher.Ameliafranticallypleadedwiththeaddictashewavedalighterand threatened to ignite her. After several terrifying moments, her attacker seemed to lose interest and walked away. Amelia was someone conditioned to minor disor- der. She knew by name many of the addicts, including her attacker, who used the methadoneclinics.Shewasalsounderstandingoftheweekendalcohol-relatedprob- lems,aswellastheyouthsinvolvedintagginggraffiti.However,theverydirectand personalattacksheexperiencedoutsidehershopfrontthatafternoonwastoomuch forher.Theattacktookplacebetweenthefirstandsecondstagesoftheinterview. Severalweekslater,shehadmovedtoanotherareaandacommunity-mindedper- son,whogenuinelybelievedPiccadillycouldchangeforthebetter,hadleftthearea forgood. ACobblerWhoWouldn’tEatOutside Tonywasahugemanstandingwellover6.5feettall.Heranasmallshoerepairshop thatopeneddirectlyoutontotheCrownStreetMall.Theareawasnotinthecoreof crimehotspotfortheCBDbutwasafocusofsocialdisorderontheweekends.Tony toldmethathehadrecentlyretiredattheageof35fromaspecialistmilitaryunitin theAustraliaDefenceForceandhadlocatedinWollongongforfamilyreasons.He haddescribedhowhehadbeenavictimofseveralseriouscrimesinthe12months precedingthesurvey.Onecrimewasparticularlyfearinspiring–agroupofyouths had attacked him with an iron bar while he was getting from his shop to his car at the back of the building after work. However, when asked about the incident, Tonyexplainedthatthisdidnotbotherhimbecauseofhisself-defencetrainingand thathewaseasilyabletodisarmtheattackers.Itwasallthemorestrikingthen,to hear him talk about how he would never eat his lunch or take breaks in the mall area directly outside his shop. His fear in this case related to the fact that, in his judgement, there was a chance of being attacked with a syringe and this was not a risk he was prepared to take. He explained that his first priority was his family andthatifhewasavictimofasyringeattack,hemaynolongerbeabletoactasa provider.ItishardtoimagineamorecapableguardianthanTony,yethisavoidance behaviour meant that he was effectively removed from the mall area only metres awayfromhisshopfront. ANightontheTownGoesWrong JohnranasmallshopbelowtheCrownStreetMallthatsoldspecialistfigurinesfor dungeonsanddragons-typeboardgames.Hewasasoftspokensmallmanwhowas 20yearsold.Hemaintainedacalmdemeanourduringtheinterviewbutpassionately Dedication vii related a story at the conclusion of the exercise. He undid the top three buttons of his shirt and revealed some massive scarring around the base of his neck. I could see that he had grown a beard to hide some of them. John went on to explain that two years back, he had been walking through Crown Street Mall late at night one weekend.Themalloftenservesasaconduitbetweentwonightclubstripsateither endofthevehicle-freearea.Hehadleftfriendsandwasgoingto‘kickon’atsome oftheclubsaloneonKeiraStreet.Hefoundhimselfsuddenlysurroundedbythree menwithskateboards–withoutwarningorprovocation;theypickeduptheboards and attacked him.Hewas seriouslyinjured butable towalk after theincident and attempted to get help from passers-by. When this proved to be unsuccessful, he attemptedtocatchataxifromCrownStreettothehospital,onlyakilometreaway butupasteepincline.Whennotaxiswouldstophewasforcedtowalktothehos- pital.Afterbuttoninguphisshirt,hestatedstronglythathewasdeterminednotto lettheexperience‘beathim’.Manymonthslater,Iwasconductingasocialdisorder assessment in the mall at 4 am and was aghast to see John walking determinedly, andalone,throughthepavedwalkwayarea.Hereappearedaclassicmanifestation oftherisk-victimizationparadox–ayoungmanwhowasrelativelymorelikelyto becomeavictimofcrimedisplayinganapparentlyirrationallackoffear.Ihadthe strongimpressionthoughthatJohnwascarryingsomethingtoprotecthimself. AHusbandThreatenstoTaketheLawintoHisOwnHands Probably one of the more horrific accounts related to me while conducting inter- views was the experience of Michelle, a petite mid-30s dress-shop owner, who workedatthebottomendofCrownStreetMall.Icouldseethatshewasnervousas thesurveymovedthroughasectiononvictimizationoverthepast12months.Atthe endoftheinterview,herhusbandcamefromthebackoftheshoptojointheconver- sation.Theywerebothverykeentoknowwhatthesurveydatawouldbeusedfor– woulditbeusedtopoliceantisocialbehaviourinthemall?Whowouldhaveaccess to the results? Was the study simply an academic exercise? It emerged that their concern stemmed from a serious attack that had taken place a number of months prior to the interview. Michelle had been accosted in her shop by a much larger womanwhodemandedcashfromtheregister.WhenMichellerefused,thewoman becameviolentandthrewheragainstadisplay.Herattackerthenwentintoafrenzy, kickingandpunchingherrepeatedly,aswellasbodilypickingherupandthrowing heraroundtheshop,asthesmallerwomandesperatelytriedtofendofftheblows. Theassaultcontinuedforsomeminutesbeforetheoffenderlefttheshop.Michelle wasbadlyshakenandhadsustainedseriousfacialinjuriesthatrequiredsurgery.She pressedcharges,astheoffenderwasgenerallyknownintheCBD.However,aweek later,Michelle’sattackerwasbackinhershoptothreatenheragain.Michelleand herhusbandspokeoftheirfrustrationwiththeauthorities–intheiropinion,thesys- temhadcompletelyfailedthemandhadleftthembothfeelingvulnerable.Michelle nolongerfeltsecureintheshopbyherself,soherhusband,whowasself-employed, hadmovedtotherearoftheshopandestablishedanoffice.Heemphasizedstrongly viii Dedication thathewouldnottolerateanyfutureintimidationandthatifitweretohappenagain, hewouldtakethelawintohisownhands. Theresponsestothesurveyvariedconsiderably.Somerespondentstoldofhow they carried their car keys when leaving work so that sharp ends protruded from between their fingers – if they needed to defend themselves they were ready. Otherpeoplespokeontheirmobilephoneswhenwalkinginpublictoavoidbeing addressed by strangers. Many people drew very detailed cognitive maps which outlined the areas they avoided because they were afraid of being robbed, beaten or attacked. In some cases, people were prisoners not in their homes but in their workplace,asisthecaseintheexamplebelow. Some of the cognitive maps drawn by a survey respondent in Wollongong outlining areas they avoidedaroundtheirworkplace(thehollowarrowindicatesthelocationoftheirworkplace) The point of these stories is not to overemphasize the shocking nature of some oftheexperiencesbutrathertoacknowledgetheindividualstoriesandbehavioural responsesthataresomewhatmaskedby,andlaybehind,thecollectivespatialanaly- sespresentedintheKingsCrossandWollongongstudies.Theseaccountsalsoserve toreinforcethefundamentalassumptionbehindthisbook,namelythatfearofcrime isasignificantproblemforsocietybecauseitpromptspeopletoadoptprotectiveand Dedication ix avoidancebehaviours.Thesebehaviourshavemanyconsequencesatthelevelofthe individual and community. They are complex and can be hard to understand but theyalsoprovidealensthroughwhichtoexamineinteractionsbetweenmembersof acommunity,publicspaceandrelationshipswithcrimeanddisorder.Weusetech- niques from behavioural geography in conjunction with Geographic Information Systems,todevelopanapproachwhichwehopewillcontributetotheliteratureon fearofcrimeaswellasthemanagementoftheproblem.Theapproachisrelatively simple,butstronglygroundedinwell-establishedprinciplesofcognitivemapping. It is transferable to other contexts and situations – in the final chapter we outline manypossiblefutureapplicationsandavenuesforresearch.Wewouldagainliketo thankthepeoplewhoparticipatedintheWollongongandKingsCrossstudiesasit istheircontributionthatallowsusto‘putfearonthemap’. Series Foreword Allovertheworld,politiciansandpolicymakersareincreasinglyinclinedtoclaim that their proposals are ‘evidence-based’. Social scientists have even caught this spirit of evidence, which may show in their occasional use of the malapropism of ‘evidence-basedresearch’(thusimplyingtheexistenceofsomeotherlegitimatecat- egoryofresearchthatisnotbasedonevidence,perhapsincludingwhatPeterReuter andothersdescribeas‘mythicalnumbers’i).Evenwhenpoliciescanclearlycitea relevantbodyofresearch,however,scientistscannotagreeonwhatmakesapolicy ‘evidence-based’.ii Thepresentbookseriesmustthereforegrapplewithaseriesofchallengestoits veryname,letalonetheordinaryhurdlesofgoodresearch.Onechallengeisabout thescopeofevidencethatisembracedbytheconceptof‘evidence-based’anything. Inforensicevidence,courtsusuallyofferaverybroadinvitationtofactsandmea- sures in support of a hypothesis that bears on the case. In the United States they evenallowtheoriesofcausationtobepresentedtojuries,apracticewidelyattacked as ‘junk science’ until the US Supreme Court barred the use of theories that had notbeentested,atleastinthefederalcourts(Daubertv.MerellDow,1993).While many court decisions may still turn on theories that most scientists would dismiss asnotadequatelyevidence-based,thestandardatleastrequiressomeevidence. A far narrower scope for what is ‘evidence-based’ has been implied by those whofocuson‘whatworks’,ortheimpactofprogrammesonoutcomes.iii Readers might expect a series on evidence-based crime prevention to use that boundary. They will, perhaps, be pleasantly surprised that we do not. As any definition of goodmedicalpracticeholds,anaccuratediagnosisisaprerequisitetochoosingan appropriatetreatment.Similarly,itisjustasimportanttoknow‘whatis’astoknow ‘whatworks’.Toolsandevidenceforclassifyingcrimesandcriminals,foranalysing trendsandpatternsincriminalevents,understandinghowcrimesarecommittedand maythereforebeprevented–alltheseareessentialformsofevidenceforthebroader enterpriseofcrimeprevention.Evenresearchthatfocusesoninterventions isusu- allyaccompaniedbydescriptiveanddiagnosticdataonthenatureofthecrimeissue inquestion.Anentireseriesofbookscancertainlyaffordtodothesame. Afurtherchallengeishowrigorousaseriesshouldbeindefiningadequateevi- denceofcauseandeffect,orevendescriptiveestimatesofcrimepatterns.Ouraim xi