Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World PDF
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Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World (cid:129) Marita Carballo Ulf Hjelmar Editors Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World 123 Dr.MaritaCarballo Dr.UlfHjelmar TNS Westgate London,W51UA UnitedKingdom [email protected] [email protected] ReferenceinthisbooktoGallupInternationalreferstotheGallupInternationalAssociation,whichisa SwissVereinthatwasfoundedas“GallupInternational”in1947byDrGeorgeHoraceGallupandhis colleagues. ISBN 978-3-540-75752-8 e-ISBN 978-3-540-75753-5 DOI 10.1007/978-3-540-75753-5 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2007937662 (cid:2)c 2008Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.Allrightsarereserved,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialis concerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation,broadcasting, reproductiononmicrofilmorinanyotherway,andstorageindatabanks.Duplicationofthispublication orpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheGermanCopyrightLawofSeptember9, 1965,initscurrentversion,andpermissionforusemustalwaysbeobtainedfromSpringer.Violations areliabletoprosecutionundertheGermanCopyrightLaw. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,etc.inthispublicationdoesnotimply, evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevantprotectivelaws andregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Production:LE-TEXJelonek,Schmidt&VöcklerGbR,Leipzig Coverdesign:WMXDesignGmbH,Heidelberg Printedonacid-freepaper 987654321 springer.com Preface The book contains results from opinion polls around the world, in total more than 50 countries. As the world becomes more integrated, political and social challenges have become increasingly global, pointing to a greater need for understanding between nations and for finding global trends. Understanding public opinion is integral to modern democracies around the world. It shapes public policies; it helps politicians to connect with their audiences; it reveals underlying issues that are of utmost importance for decision-makers. The initiative for this book has come from TNS Political and Social, a world leader in providing political and social information. TNS provides insights into public opinion, covers elections and analyzes other political, social and economic issues, in more than 70 coun- tries. Each year TNS conducts millions of interviews for clients to understand how the public is thinking or reacting to major issues on a national or international scale. This unique position on the interna- tional market has enabled us to conceive and produce this book. I hope this book will find a big audience. Public opinion polling is a powerful tool in the world of today and we need a thorough discus- sion of its role and its potential in politics and society at large. The following chapters explore and develop this idea. London, September 2007 Marita Carballo Global Head of Sector, TNS Political & Social Contents Preface...................................................................................V Introduction...........................................................................1 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar Part 1: International Polls The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy ..........................................................................13 Tony Cowling Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences ........................................................................25 Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives...........................................................43 Pascal Chelala Latin America’s Mixed Views About Globalization, Investments and the United States...................................61 Constanza Cilley How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future?.............77 Marchella Abrasheva VIII Contents Part 2: Public Opinion Polling in National Elections Exit Polls – A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts.............................................................................93 Richard Hilmer Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling: Lessons from ABC News’ 32-Night Tracking Poll..........109 Daniel Merkle, Gary Langer, and David Lambert The Presidential Elections in France 2007 – The Role of Opinion Polls................................................135 Brice Teinturier Voters Lack Commitment: Canada..................................153 Richard Jenkins Part 3: The Public Sector in Transition Developing Employment Policy in Europe.....................173 Harald Bielenski The School Sport Partnership Programme – Raising Levels of Participation in Physical Education and Sport in Schools in England............................................191 Susannah Quick Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case ............................................................207 Ole Ugland Contents IX Part 4: Asia on the Move The Role of Social Research in Development Programs: Examples from India......................................229 U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji A Framework for Social Development Assessment......247 Daniel Lindgren and John Budd Polling in Developing Democracies – The Case of the Philippines..................................................................267 Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Māori Television Services – Raising Knowledge of Māori Language and Culture in New Zealand ................281 Elizabeth Vink About the Authors............................................................293 Introduction Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar In recent years a number of studies have been published about the globalization process and how it affects our societies.1 It has been shown how the forces driving the process of cross-national integra- tion started many centuries ago and it has been convincingly demon- strated how this process has accelerated within the last couple of decades due to the growth of information technology, the opening of markets in Asia, Eastern Europe etc. We live in a world where global trends affect us all and public opin- ion seems to be among the key elements shaping our democracies2. Already back in 1922 Walter Lippmann stated that: “Representative government, either in what is ordinarily called politics, or in industry, cannot be worked successfully, no matter what the basis of election, unless there is an independent, expert organization for making the unseen facts intelligible to those who have to make the decisions.”3 Lippmann, in particular, referred to the free press as the key institu- tion for the articulation of public opinion and today, more than 80 years later, this seems to be as true as ever. More recent studies have also underlined the essential role the media have as the guardians of 1 Hirst and Thompson 1996; Giddens 2000; Schirato 2003; Friedman 2005. 2 Habermas 1989; Forester 1993; Lippmann 1997. 3 Lippmann 1997, p. 8. 2 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar democracy and the guarantee that citizens can express their views and have an open and rational debate.4 In democracies it is the voice of the people that counts and that is why public-opinion polling is closely linked to democracy. Nicolas Chamfort, an eighteenth cen- tury French philosopher, surely would not agree with this. In his view “the public opinion is the worst of all opinions”5. Chamfort held the view that if an opinion could appeal to a majority it had to be not common sense, but common nonsense. Democracy soon changed this elitist point of view, which ruled in the aristocracy and intellectual elite of the eighteenth century. In the democracies of today it is of vital importance for governments to be in line with the views of the voters. There are various ways to ensure that political leaders and officials stay in contact with the general public and are held accountable for their actions. Elections provide the most essential element of this process. The importance of free and fair elections can hardly be underestimated in modern democracies since they represent the very essence of democracy and political representation. At the same time, it is evident that democ- ratic elections – even if they work flawlessly – are insufficient in terms of ensuring political representation and accountability since elections are exercised only at outstretched intervals and are usually decided by summary judgments rather than reactions to particular acts. As citizens, we clearly need more discriminating instruments to enforce political representation and accountability.6 Public meetings have traditionally served as mechanisms for en- couraging citizens to express their views on specific political issues and obliging politicians and public officials to justify political ac- tions. The problem we encounter today, however, is that public meetings seem to attract an all the more limited group of people, mainly from political parties, interest groups and other “insider- 4 Habermas 1989; Forester 1993. 5 de Botton 2004, p. 129. 6 Hjelmar, Hilmer and Mueller-Hilmer 2006. Introduction 3 groups”. It is becoming increasingly difficult to attract citizens at the margins of society to political meetings and, as a result, the views expressed at such meetings are seldom representative of the electorate7. Public-opinion polling helps to fill this void. Traditional democratic mechanisms do not seem to be sufficiently distinctive and cohesive to fulfil the prerequisites of an effective system of political represen- tation and this, we would argue, has led to an increase in magnitude and importance of public-opinion polling in modern democracies. Public-opinion polling seems to be one of the essential ways of ex- pressing and defining public opinion in society today. For the media it is an effective way of integrating the views of citizens in the pub- lic debate and a powerful way of creating news and setting the agenda. For NGO’s and other stakeholders in the public debate it is a prime instrument to demonstrate support for specific viewpoints and to try to influence the political agenda. For the public sector it is be- coming an essential tool to measure expectations and satisfaction with public services. For politicians, public opinion polls are very effective in terms of showing how citizens view existing policies and how policies could be changed in order to be more in line with “the will of the people”. The political elite needs a more direct relationship with its voters and is therefore tending towards a basic virtue of de- mocracy: to listen to the needs and demands of citizens and link these directly back to policy-making. This view of the political representa- tion process emphasizes the benefits of market orientation: first and foremost the necessity for political parties to understand those it seeks to serve and deliver a product that reflects their needs and wants8. The close link between public-opinion polls and democracy is also underlined by the fact that public-opinion polls are heavily re- stricted in countries without democracy. According to ESOMAR and WAPOR, restrictions on the conduct or publication of opinion 7 Hjelmar, Hilmer and Mueller-Hilmer 2006. 8 Lees-Marshment 2004.
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