Protest, Repression and Political Regimes: An empirical analysis of Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa

151 Pages·2009·2.147 MB·English

by  Sabine C. Carey

Protest, Repression and
Political Regimes
This volume investigates the relationship between protest, repression and
political regimes in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa.
Considering how different political regimes use repression and respond
to popular protest, this book analyses the relationship between protest
and repression in Africa and Latin America between the late 1970s and
the beginning of the twenty-first century. Drawing on theories, multi-
method empirical analyses and case studies, the author of this volume sets
out to investigate the reciprocal dynamics between protest and repression.
Distinctive features of this volume include:
• quantitative analyses that highlight general trends in the protest–
repression relationship
• case studies of different political regimes in Chile and Nigeria, emphasiz-
ing the dynamics at the micro level
• an argument for the importance of full democratization in order to
reduce the risk, and intensity, of intrastate conflict.
Focusing on political regimes in different areas of the world, Protest,
Repression and Political Regimes will be of vital interest to students and
scholars of conflict studies, human rights and social movements.
Sabine C. Carey is Lecturer in International Relations and Co-Director of
ICMCR, University of Nottingham, and Senior Researcher at the Centre for
the Study of Civil War at PRIO. Research interests include conflict processes,
human rights violations and democratization.
Security and Governance Series
Edited by Fiona B. Adamson
School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London
Roland Paris
University of Ottawa
Stefan Wolff
University of Nottingham
Editorial Board:
Mohammed Ayoob, Michigan Elizabeth Kier, University of Washington
State University Keith Krause, Graduate Institute of
Richard Caplan, University of Oxford International Studies, Geneva
Neta Crawford, Boston University Bruce Russett, Yale University
Stuart Croft, University of Birmingham Timothy Sisk, University of Denver
Donatella della Porta, European Janice Gross Stein, University
University Institute of Toronto
Michael Doyle, Columbia University Stephen Stedman, Stanford University
Lynn Eden, Stanford University Mark Zacher, University of
Takashi Inoguchi, University of Tokyo British Columbia
This series reflects the broadening conceptions of security and the growing
nexus between the study of governance issues and security issues. The topics
covered in the series range from issues relating to the management of terror-
ism and political violence, non-state actors, transnational security threats,
migration, borders and ‘homeland security’, to questions surrounding weak
and failing states, post-conflict reconstruction, the evolution of regional and
international security institutions, energy and environmental security, and
the proliferation of WMD. Particular emphasis is placed on publishing
theoretically informed scholarship that elucidates the governance mechan-
isms, actors and processes available for managing issues in the new security
environment.
Rethinking Japanese Security The Dilemmas of Statebuilding
Peter J. Katzenstein Confronting the contradictions of
postwar peace operations
State Building and International Edited by Roland Paris and
Intervention in Bosnia Timothy D. Sisk
Roberto Belloni
Protest, Repression and
The UN Security Council and the Political Regimes
Politics of International Authority An empirical analysis of Latin America
Edited by Bruce Cronin and Ian Hurd and sub-Saharan Africa
Sabine C. Carey
Protest, Repression and
Political Regimes
An empirical analysis of Latin America
and sub-Saharan Africa
Sabine C. Carey
First published 2009 by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2008.
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s
collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.”
© 2009 Sabine C. Carey
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter
invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any
information storage or retrieval system, without permission in
writing from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested
ISBN 0-203-88498-1 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN 10: 0–415–42484–4 (hbk)
ISBN 10: 0–203–88498–1 (ebk)
ISBN 13: 978–0–415–42484–4 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978–0–203–88498–0 (ebk)
This book is dedicated to the memory of Steve Poe

Contents
List of figures viii
List of tables x
Acknowledgements xi
List of abbreviations xii
1 Introduction 1
2 Domestic conflict and political regimes 12
3 A macro-level analysis 30
4 A dynamic model of protest and repression 56
5 Analysing domestic conflict and accommodation 70
6 Illustrative case studies: Chile and Nigeria 83
7 Conclusion 103
Appendix: Socio-economic background of
countries in the IPI dataset 111
References 125
Index 133
Figures
1.1 A model of protest, repression and political regimes 2
2.1 Four hypotheses on the impact of repression on protest 19
3.1 Average values of Political Terror Scale across time 32
3.2 Change in predicted probabilities of repression in
Latin America 38
3.3 Change in predicted probabilities of repression
in Africa 39
3.4 Predicted probabilities of repression in Latin
America 40
3.5 Predicted probabilities of repression in Africa 40
3.6 Predicted probabilities of repression under
different levels of democracy, Latin America 41
3.7 Predicted probabilities of repression under
different levels of democracy, sub-Saharan Africa 42
3.8 Repression as response to dissent in
non-democracies, Africa 43
3.9 Repression as response to dissent in
democracies, Africa 43
3.10 Repression as response to dissent in non-democracies,
Latin America 44
3.11 Repression as response to dissent in
democracies, Latin America 44
3.12 Change in predicted probabilities of dissent
in Africa 49
3.13 Dissent as response to repression in Latin America 50
3.14 Dissent as response to repression in Africa 50
4.1 Average monthly values of coercion and
accommodation 67
5.1 Summary of VAR results 79
A.1 Dissent as response to repression in autocracies,
Latin America 119
A.2 Dissent as response to repression in semi-democracies,
Latin America 119
Figures ix
A.3 Dissent as response to repression in democracies,
Latin America 120
A.4 Argentina, April 1982 to December 1992 120
A.5 Brazil, July 1983 to December 1992 121
A.6 Chile, May 1979 to October 1992 121
A.7 Colombia, May 1983 to December 1992 122
A.8 Mexico, February 1984 to November 1992 122
A.9 Venezuela, March 1983 to December 1992 123
A.10Nigeria, January 1983 to December 1992 123
A.11Zaire, January 1974 to December 1992 124
A.12Zimbabwe, December 1974 to December 1985 124