Protecting the Arctic

298 Pages·2012·8.17 MB·English

House of Commons
Environmental Audit
Committee
Protecting the Arctic
Second Report of Session 2012–13
Volume I: Report, together with formal
minutes, oral and written evidence
Additional written evidence is contained in
Volume II, available on the Committee website
at www.parliament.uk/eacom
Ordered by the House of Commons
to be printed 12 September 2012

HC 171
[Incorporating HC 1739-i, ii, iii and iv, Session 2010–12]
Published on 20 September 2012
by authority of the House of Commons
London: The Stationery Office Limited
£24.50
Environmental Audit Committee
The Environmental Audit Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to
consider to what extent the policies and programmes of government
departments and non-departmental public bodies contribute to environmental
protection and sustainable development; to audit their performance against
such targets as may be set for them by Her Majesty’s Ministers; and to report
thereon to the House.
Current membership
Joan Walley MP (Labour, Stoke-on-Trent North) (Chair)
Peter Aldous MP (Conservative, Waveney)
Richard Benyon MP (Conservative, Newbury) [ex-officio]
Neil Carmichael MP (Conservative, Stroud)
Martin Caton MP (Labour, Gower)
Katy Clark MP (Labour, North Ayrshire and Arran)
Zac Goldsmith MP (Conservative, Richmond Park)
Mark Lazarowicz MP (Labour/Co-operative, Edinburgh North and Leith)
Caroline Lucas MP (Green, Brighton Pavilion)
Ian Murray MP (Labour, Edinburgh South)
Sheryll Murray MP (Conservative, South East Cornwall)
Caroline Nokes MP (Conservative, Romsey and Southampton North)
Mr Mark Spencer MP (Conservative, Sherwood)
Paul Uppal MP (Conservative, Wolverhampton South West)
Dr Alan Whitehead MP (Labour, Southampton, Test)
Simon Wright MP (Liberal Democrat, Norwich South)
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principally in SO No 152A. These are available on the internet via
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the Committee in the present Parliament is at the back of this volume.

The Reports of the Committee, the formal minutes relating to that report, oral
evidence taken and some or all written evidence are available in a printed
volume.
Committee staff
The current staff of the Committee are Simon Fiander (Clerk), Nicholas Beech
(Second Clerk), Lee Nicholson (Committee Specialist), Andrew Wallace (Senior
Committee Assistant), Anna Browning (Committee Assistant), Yago Zayed,
Committee Support Assistant, and Nicholas Davies (Media Officer).
Contacts
All correspondence should be addressed to the Clerk of the Environmental Audit
Committee, House of Commons, 7 Millbank, London SW1P 3JA. The telephone
number for general enquiries is 020 7219 6150; the Committee’s email address is
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Protecting the Arctic 1
Contents
Report
Page
Summary 3
1 Introduction 5
2 The impact of climate change on the Arctic 7
Impact on UK weather from climate change in the Arctic 9
Effects on wildlife 11
Tipping points 13
The retreating Arctic ice-cap 13
Permafrost thawing 16
The Greenland Ice-sheet 18
The thermo-haline circulation 20
Boreal forests 21
Early warning on tipping points 21
Potential interventions 22
Geo-engineering 22
Black carbon 23
3 The risks to the Arctic from increased development 26
Oil and gas exploration 27
Risks of oil and gas extraction 31
Indigenous peoples 39
The standard for response plans 41
Regulatory regimes 42
The case for a moratorium of further oil and gas exploration 45
Shipping 47
A ‘Polar Code’ 50
Fisheries 53
4 Governance of the Arctic 56
International treaties 56
The Arctic Council 59
Designating a ‘protected zone’ in the Arctic 60
The UK’s role in the Arctic 62
‘Brokering’ the relationship between the Arctic Council and others 63
Using UK Arctic research 65
Developing a ‘UK Strategy’ to promote collaboration on Arctic matters 66
Conclusions and recommendations 70

Formal Minutes 75
Witnesses 76
2 Protecting the Arctic
List of printed written evidence 78
List of additional written evidence 78
List of Reports from the Committee during the current Parliament 79
Protecting the Arctic 3
Summary
The damaging effects of climate change are being felt strongly in the Arctic. It is warming
twice as fast as anywhere else on the planet. The speed at which the ice-cap is retreating has
increased and new data points to it thinning faster than previously thought. In September
2012 it reached its lowest extent to date and the previously held general view that the ice-
cap is not at risk of a summer collapse in the next few years needs to be re-examined and if
necessary revised. We will consider holding a further evidence session once there has been
time for proper analysis of the implications of the extent of summer ice melt this year. A
total collapse would not only lead to further warming of the Arctic, but would be disastrous
for its unique ecosystem and wildlife, and may have damaging ramifications for regional
and global climate. There are also a number of other tipping points in climate-driven
systems in the Arctic that may be approaching with potentially disastrous consequences,
such as increased methane emissions from thawing permafrost, runaway melting of the
Greenland Ice-sheet and a collapse of the thermo-haline circulation of the Atlantic. These
together comprise a wake-up call to reinvigorate efforts to tackle climate change. Although
a reduction in emissions will not prevent a significant loss of sea-ice, it may allow time for
ecosystems to adapt, and is necessary to limit further global warming and avoid more
severe effects in the Arctic and across the globe.
Ironically, greater exploitation of the Arctic’s oil and gas resources is becoming a reality as
fossil fuel-driven global warming forces the retreat of the ice-cap. Arctic oil and gas would
not be needed in a future that avoided dangerous climate change as there are already more
proven fossil fuel reserves than can be burnt unabated whilst keeping to commitments to
limit global temperature. The heightened risks when drilling for oil and gas in the Arctic
are further exacerbated by the Arctic being one of the least understood places on Earth and
highly sensitive to environmental damage. In the event of an oil spill, past history shows
that only a small percentage of oil is ever going to be recovered, and the oil spill response
techniques that are available have not yet been conclusively proven to work fully effectively
in Arctic conditions. Given the risks when drilling in the Arctic, and the fact that operators
do not have to constrain risks to an ‘as low as possible’ standard, we call for a moratorium
on drilling in the Arctic until:
• the regulatory regimes of all Arctic states impose the highest available environmental
standards, and require the best available and safest technology to be used for all
components of drilling;
• a pan-Arctic oil spill response standard is in place;
• a much higher, preferably unlimited, financial liability regime for oil and gas
operations;
• an oil and gas industry group is set up to peer-review companies’ drilling and spill
response plans and operating practices, reporting publicly;
• further independent research and testing on oil spill response techniques in Arctic
conditions is conducted, including an assessment of their environmental side-effects;
4 Protecting the Arctic
and
• an internationally recognised environmental sanctuary is established in at least part of
the Arctic.
Exploitation of other natural resources such as minerals and fisheries, and the
establishment of new major global shipping routes, are also in prospect as a result of
climate change. Arctic and non-Arctic states must work together to ensure that any new
fisheries are managed sustainably and that effective standards for environmentally-safe
navigation through Arctic waters are in place as soon as possible.
The Arctic is seen as a politically stable region and an orderly process to settle claims of
who owns the resources of the continental shelves is ongoing. The Arctic Council is a key
means of cooperation between the eight Arctic states and other observer states, including
the UK. The UK could increase its influence on Arctic matters in a number of ways,
including offering to broker the relationship between Arctic Council members and others,
and using UK Arctic science and research as a basis for enhanced cooperation on
environmental protection. All Arctic states have developed their own Arctic Strategies and
the UK Government should also do so to bring together the UK’s diverse interests in the
Arctic and engage all stakeholders. Such a Strategy should set out how the Government
plans to implement the recommendations we make in this report, including securing a
moratorium on oil and gas drilling in the Arctic until the preconditions we list above have
been implemented.
Protecting the Arctic 5
1
Introduction
1. Home to 4 million people and a number of species unique to region, encompassing a
diverse range of habitats, the Arctic is warming at twice the rate of the rest of planet. As a
result of climate change, a number of ‘tipping points’ that would hasten further global
climate change could be approaching, with serious ramifications for the UK’s weather and
climate (paragraphs 12 & 13). The Arctic Ocean ice-cap is retreating at a dramatic rate, and
within the near future might collapse completely during the summer months, threatening
the unique wildlife and ecosystems that are found there. Most Arctic biodiversity is
migratory and shared with the rest of the world, particularly the UK.
2. The retreating ice-cap is enabling greater exploitation of the Arctic’s natural resources—
fossil fuels, minerals, and fisheries—and opening up new major global shipping routes. As
a maritime nation close to the Arctic, with well-developed oil, finance and insurance
sectors, British companies will have a clear interest in these new opportunities. Given the
challenging Arctic conditions, there are concerns that such development could result in
significant environmental damage in a region already feeling the effects of climate change
more than the rest of the planet. The fact that the Arctic is one of the least understood
places on Earth exacerbates the risks.
3. The 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development set out Principles on
which all states would work together to protect the environment and achieve sustainable
development. Part of our Committee’s role entails ensuring that there is an ongoing
process to enshrine those Principles into future international agreements, UK laws and
government policies. To that end, we have carried out a number of inquiries looking at the
outcomes of the June 2012 Rio+20 Earth Summit, which aimed to reaffirm political
commitment to the Rio Principles and past action plans and to agree the actions needed to
achieve sustainable development. This is an important agenda and we must all work to
‘take Rio Home’ and implement the future programme of work that was agreed. As an
iconic region where environmental and climatic changes will affect all states and peoples,
not just those in the Arctic, the international community must work together to ensure
that the Rio Principles are at the core of future development in the Arctic.
4. Against this background, we decided to explore the:
• impact of climate change on the Arctic (Part 2);
• risks to ecosystems from increased development, particularly oil and gas extraction,
shipping and fisheries (Part 3); and
• governance arrangements for the Arctic, including the role that the UK Government
should be taking (Part 4).
5. We received over 30 written submissions and took oral evidence from non-
governmental organisations; academics; oil companies; the International Chamber of
Shipping, the Norwegian and Swedish Ambassadors (Norway chaired the Arctic Council
between 2006 and 2009, and Sweden is the current chair); the Met Office; Natural
Environment Research Council; Maritime and Coastguard Agency; the Department for
Transport, Department of Energy and Climate Change and Foreign and Commonwealth
6 Protecting the Arctic

Office; and Henry Bellingham MP, the then Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the
Foreign and Commonwealth Office, which is the lead department on the Arctic. We would
like to thank all those who contributed evidence.
Protecting the Arctic 7
2
The impact of climate change on the
Arctic
6. The Arctic is a diverse region encompassing a seasonally-changing frozen ocean
surrounded by continents where permafrost and tundra give way to vast expanses of boreal
forest. Climatic conditions—temperature, precipitation, wind speeds and the prevalence of
sea ice in coastal areas—vary at similar latitudes. For instance, average temperatures in
January are -6.7°C in Tromsø, Norway but -28.1°C in Fairbanks, Alaska.1 “The extent of
snow, ice over water, and the dynamics of glaciers and ice streams vary greatly over short
timescales and from place to place”, whereas “the extent of permafrost and large ice sheets
vary and change over decadal timescales and large areas”.2
7. Distinguishing long-term impacts of climate change from natural variability requires
data from many locations in the Arctic over many years and careful analysis. There is
evidence, nevertheless, that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as anywhere else on the
planet, with average warming north of 60°N of 1-2°C since the 1960s.3 Evidence from lake
sediments, tree-rings and ice cores suggest that temperatures in recent decades have been
higher than at any time in the past 2,000 years.4
8. Henry Bellingham MP, the then Foreign and Commonwealth Office Parliamentary
Under Secretary and lead Minister responsible for the Arctic, told us that the Government
believed that climate change “poses the biggest single threat to the Arctic environment”.5
The effects of climate change are already being felt in the Arctic, and “are likely to continue
more profoundly than perhaps anywhere else on Earth”.6 The ice-cap retreating was not
the only consequence of climate change in the Arctic. The extent and duration of snow
cover has decreased, largely as a result of snow melting earlier in the spring.7 Precipitation
has increased by 80% over the last century, with much of the increase falling as rain.8
Temperatures in the permafrost have risen by up to 2°C over the past three decades.9
Glaciers are melting.10 Rivers’ discharge to the sea has increased, reducing the salinity and
density in the North Atlantic. Ice cover on lakes and rivers is breaking up earlier than
previously observed.11

1 Lloyd’s and Chatham House, Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North, 2012.
2 Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme working group, Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in
the Arctic, 2011.
3 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change, 2007.
4 Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic, op cit.
5 Q 405
6 ibid
7 Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee, Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment, 2004.
8 ibid
9 ibid
10 ibid
11 ibid
8 Protecting the Arctic

9. The biggest change, however, is in the size of the Arctic ice-cap. Sea-ice has been
declining at least since satellite records began12 and is one of the most serious consequences
of global warming.13 The rate of decline is currently about 3% per decade for the maximum
winter extent (March) and about 10–12% per decade for the minimum summer extent
(September).14 The six lowest September ice extents have occurred in the last six years,15
including September 2012 which was the lowest ice extent on record (Figure 1, page 10).16
10. The latest biennial Arctic Report Card notes that “there are now a sufficient number of
years of data to indicate a shift in the Arctic Ocean system since 2006 ... characterised by
the persistent decline in the thickness and summer extent of the sea ice cover, and a
warmer, fresher upper ocean”.17 Warming in the Arctic was not just as a result of increased
CO₂ emissions, but also increases in other greenhouse gasses such as methane and black
carbon aerosols, and a decline in cooling sulphate aerosols.18 While most emissions driving
climate change in the Arctic do not primarily originate in the Arctic, changes there will
have impacts for the global climate, giving everyone a clear stake in the Region’s future.19
11. Increased precipitation, shorter and warmer winters, and substantial decreases in snow
and ice cover are likely to persist for centuries.20 Even with the most “aggressive mitigation
scenarios”, there would still be a significant loss of Arctic sea ice by the end of the century.21
Whereas increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses are “projected to contribute to
additional Arctic warming of about 4–7°C over the next 100 years”.22 Professor Tim
Lenton of the University of Exeter told us that the current situation met the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s definition of “dangerous change”.23
Professor Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge told us that all the
environmental trends of air temperatures, changes in the ocean, and changes in the sea-ice
were heading in the “same direction”, and that “the direction is very clear: We are going to
get into a ghastly situation for the planet at some point and whether it is happening next
year or it is going to take a few decades is the only question”.24 John Nissen of the Arctic
Methane Emergency Group linked extreme weather patterns in recent years to a “decrease
in stability as the Arctic warms relative to the rest of the planet”.25 A reduction in
emissions, however, “would allow ecosystems and human societies as a whole to adapt

12 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change, op cit.
13 Professor Peter Wadhams, “Arctic Ice Cover, Ice Thickness and Tipping Points”, AMBIO: A Journal of the Human
Environment, vol 41, February 2012.
14 Ev 170, Ev 128
15 Richter-Menge, J., M. O. Jeffries and J. E. Overland, Eds., Arctic Report Card 2011, 2011.
16 Arctic Sea Ice 2012, Met Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/sea-ice-2012
17 Arctic Report Card 2011, op cit.
18 Q 15 [Professor Lenton]
19 Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, op cit.
20 Ibid; Q 125 [Professor Slingo]
21 Q 125 [Professor Slingo]
22 Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, op cit.
23 Q 15
24 Q 30
25 Q 25