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Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Medicine 870 Prostate Cancer; Metabolic Risk Factors, Drug Utilisation, Adverse Drug Reactions BIRGITTA GRUNDMARK ACTA UNIVERSITATIS ISSN 1651-6206 UPSALIENSIS ISBN 978-91-554-8609-9 UPPSALA urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-194297 2013 Dissertation presented at Uppsala University to be publicly examined in Universitetshuset, Biskopsgatan 3, Uppsala, Thursday, April 25, 2013 at 09:00 for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Faculty of Medicine). The examination will be conducted in Swedish. Abstract Grundmark, B. 2013. Prostate Cancer; Metabolic Risk Factors, Drug Utilisation, Adverse Drug Reactions. Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis. Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Medicine 870. 115 pp. Uppsala. ISBN 978-91-554-8609-9. Increased possibilities during the last decades for early detection of prostate cancer have sparked research on preventable or treatable risk factors and on improvements in therapy. Treatments of the disease still entail significant side effects potentially affecting men during the rest of their lives. The studies of the present thesis concern different aspects of prostate cancer from etiological risk factors and factors influencing treatment to an improved methodology for the detection of treatment side effects. Papers I, II, both based in the population based cohort ULSAM (Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men), investigate possible risk factors of prostate cancer with options for intervention: selenium levels and the metabolic syndrome. The phenomenon of competing risk of death from other causes than prostate cancer and its impact on and importance for choice of statistical methods is also exemplified and discussed for the first time in prostate cancer research. -Smokers with low selenium status have an increased future risk of later development of prostate cancer. Influence of genetic variability appears plausible. -The metabolic syndrome and especially its increased waist circumference component are associated with later development of prostate cancer – taking competing risks of death from other causes into account. Papers III and IV using pharmacoepidemiological methods investigate aspects of drug utilisation in prostate cancer using nationwide and international databases. In Paper III factors influencing anti-androgen use in prostate cancer are investigated, both from a prescriber- and patient perspective. The age and disease risk group of the patient, unsupported scientifically, influence both the prescribers’ choice of dose and the patients’ adherence to treatment. -Adherence, not previously investigated in male cancer patients, was considerably higher than reported for adjuvant breast cancer treatment. Subgroups of men suitable for intervention to increase adherence were identified. Paper IV, investigates the feasibility of improving an established method for screening large adverse drug reactions databases, the proportional reporting ratio (PRR), this by using restricted sub-databases according to treatment area (TA), introducing the concept of PRR-TA. -The PRR-TA method increases the signal-noise relationship of analyses; a finding highly relevant for possibly conserving manual resources in Pharmacovigilance work in a drug- authority setting. Keywords: Prostate cancer, Epidemiology, Pharmacoepidemiology, Metabolic Syndrome, Selenium, Smoking, hOGG1, MnSOD, Competing Risk, Adherence, Persistance, Medical Possession Ratio, MPR, Signal Detection, PRR, proportional reporting ratio, ULSAM, PcBaSE, EudraVigilance, SPDR, Swedish Prescribe Drug Registry, NPCR, National Prostate Cancer Registry, SDR, Signal, disproportionality analysis, PRR-TA, EudraVigilance Birgitta Grundmark, Uppsala University, Department of Surgical Sciences, Akademiska sjukhuset, SE-751 85 Uppsala, Sweden. Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics, Box 609, SE-751 25 Uppsala, Sweden. © Birgitta Grundmark 2013 ISSN 1651-6206 ISBN 978-91-554-8609-9 urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-194297 (http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-194297) ”Jag vill inte klaga; jag har faktiskt upptäckt Atlantis.” Wisława Szymborska ur Lovsång till drömmarna Department of Surgical Sciences Uppsala University Supervisor: Professor Lars Holmberg Co-supervisor: Associate Professor Björn Zethelius Statistician: Dr Hans Garmo Opponent: Professor Gunnar Engström Lund University List of Papers This thesis is based on the following Papers, which are referred to in the text by their Roman numerals. I Serum levels of selenium and smoking habits at age 50 influence long term pros- tate cancer risk, a 34 year ULSAM follow- up. BMC Cancer. 2011 Oct 7;11:431 II The metabolic syndrome and the risk of prostate cancer under competing risks of death from other causes. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2010 Aug;19(8):2088-96 III Anti-androgen prescribing patterns, patient treatment adherence and influencing fac- tors, results from the nationwide PCBaSe Sweden. Eur J Clin Pharmacol. 2012 Dec;68(12):1619-30 IV Reducing the noise in signal detection of adverse drug reactions by standardizing the background: analyses of Proportional Rate Ratios-by-therapeutic area. Manuscript Reprints were made with permission from the respective publishers. I Open access license agreement II © Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention (American Association for Cancer Research) III© Springer Contents Introduction...................................................................................................13 Epidemiological trends in Prostate Cancer..............................................13 Clinical presentation, diagnosis, grading, staging and risk classification:............................................................................................14 Risk factors for Prostate Cancer (Papers I, II)..........................................15 Age.......................................................................................................15 Hereditary factors, ethnicity, geographic and genetic variation..........16 Oxidative stress, endogenous factors...................................................17 Oxidative stress, exogenous factors.....................................................18 The Metabolic syndrome.....................................................................19 Smoking, false protectivity, competing risk........................................20 Drug utilisation and Pharmacovigilance (Papers III, IV).........................21 Prostate Cancer treatment....................................................................21 Hormonal treatment.............................................................................22 Anti-androgens....................................................................................22 Prescribing patterns.............................................................................22 Treatment adherence............................................................................23 Pharmacovigilance...............................................................................23 Approval of drugs, benefit/risk evaluation..........................................23 Efficacy vs. effectiveness, the risk of harm in trials vs. in real life.....24 Spontaneous Reporting for Signal Detection.......................................24 Pharmacovigilance signal....................................................................25 Signal detection methods, the PRR:....................................................25 Aims of the thesis..........................................................................................28 Overall aim...............................................................................................28 Specific aims............................................................................................28 Material and Methods, Papers I, II................................................................29 The ULSAM cohort:............................................................................29 Investigations at baseline.....................................................................30 Investigation at age 71.........................................................................31 The Metabolic syndrome, definitions:.................................................31 Follow up and outcome definitions Paper I, II....................................32 Statistical analysis methods:................................................................33 Material and Methods, Paper III...................................................................34 PCBaSe Sweden, National Prostate Cancer Register (NPCR)............34 Study population..................................................................................34 Bicalutamide indication, treatment guidelines.....................................35 Risk classification................................................................................35 Follow-up and outcome definitions, statistical analysis methods........35 Adherence calculations........................................................................37 Material and Methods Paper IV....................................................................39 Proportional Reporting Ratios, PRR, thresholds.................................40 PRR by therapeutic area......................................................................40 Results Paper I..............................................................................................43 Baseline measurements and Prostate Cancer risk................................44 Smoking and Selenium: early death competing with Prostate Cancer..46 Influence of genotype?........................................................................47 Results Paper II.............................................................................................49 Baseline measurements and relative risk of Prostate Cancer...............49 Analysing cumulatively.......................................................................51 Results Paper III............................................................................................57 Prescribing pattern, dosage influencing factors:..................................58 The more severe the disease, the lower the treatment persistence.......60 Reasons for treatment discontinuation vary with disease severity......60 Adherence to bicalutamide treatment..................................................61 Results Paper IV...........................................................................................64 Conventional PRR calculations using the SDR3 and SDR5 thresholds.............................................................................................64 PRR calculations by restricting the background of comparison, detection of acknowledged ADRs in SPCs = true positive SDRs.......65 Detection of SDRs not acknowledged as ADRs in the SPCs..............67 Discussion and Conclusions, Papers I, II......................................................70 “Clinically relevant” prostate cancer...................................................70 Screening detected vs. non-screening detected prostate cancer...........70 The role of selenium............................................................................72 The role of smoking- competing risk...................................................72 The role of genetic variation, OGG1, MnSOD....................................73 Attempting prevention of prostate cancer by selenium supplementation...................................................................................74 Risk of harm vs. chance of benefit of supplementation- more is not always better........................................................................................75 Prevention of Prostate Cancer, is it really relevant?............................76 Better chance of success in high risk populations?..............................76 Other Prostate Cancer prevention attempts.........................................77 The role of the Metabolic Syndrome or its components......................77 The metabolic syndrome and competing risk......................................78 Reverse the Metabolic Syndrome and prevent Prostate Cancer?........79 The Metabolic Syndrome, its Raison d’être........................................79 What happened since Paper II.............................................................80 Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus - does it really protect from Prostate Cancer?................................................................................................81 Competing risk - does it matter in the screening age of Prostate Cancer?................................................................................................81 Discussion and Conclusions, Paper III.........................................................83 Treatment in relation to guidelines......................................................83 Persistence...........................................................................................84 Off-label use........................................................................................84 On adherence to prescribed treatment.................................................84 On measuring adherence......................................................................85 Adhering to guidelines and approved indication.................................86 Awareness of adherence to improve effectiveness of oral cancer treatment..............................................................................................86 Adherence affects effectiveness..........................................................87 Recent comments on methods for measuring adherence.....................87 Future...................................................................................................87 Discussion and Conclusions Paper IV..........................................................88 Comparison with literature..................................................................89 Strengths and weaknesses of the PRR-TA..........................................90 Clinical implications............................................................................91 Unanswered questions and future research specified..........................91 Conclusions.........................................................................................91 Tack!.............................................................................................................93 References:....................................................................................................95

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Prostate Cancer treatment Discussion and Conclusions, Papers I, II NBHW National Board of Health and Welfare, Socialstyrelsen
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