Prospects of Arctic governance PDF
Preview Prospects of Arctic governance
Double Master’s Degree in International Relations MGIMO – LUISS Guido Carli Department of Political Science Chair of International Organisation and Human Rights Prospects of Arctic governance : critical analysis of current trends and future scenarios SUPERVISOR CANDIDATE Professor Elena Sciso Eleonora Milazzo Professor Lev S. Voronkov Student Reg. n. 622882 CO-‐SUPERVISOR Professor Maria Beatrice Deli Academic year 2014/2015 To my family. Acknowledgments First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisors, Professor Elena Sciso (LUISS), and Professor Lev S. Voronkov (MGIMO), who have supported me throughout my thesis with their patience and knowledge whilst allowing me the room to work in my own way. Their expertise, understanding, and patience, added considerably to my graduate studies. This thesis is the result of many experiences I have encountered in the past two years. During my time in Moscow, I have been given the unique opportunity to carry out a research period at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). I wish to thank all RIAC staff, and in particular Liudmila Filippova and Ilya Ivanov, for introducing me to the Arctic. I am grateful to Dominic Marcellino, Elizabeth Tedsen, and Arne Riedel (Ecologic Institute), Daniel Bennett (Atlantic Council), and Edvard Glucksman (ELEEP Network) for their guidance and encouragement during my time at Ecologic Institute as Arctic Climate Change Emerging Leaders (ACCEL) Fellow. The ACCEL Fellowship has been an exceptionally enriching experience and I am grateful to them for having made it really unique. Special thanks goes to Pavel Gudev, IMEMO RAN, for generously providing me with his valuable insights on Arctic governance. While working on this thesis, I took part to many activities, including the Potsdam Summer School Arctic in the Anthropocene, the Arctic Summer College, and the Arctic Circle Conference in Reykjavik. All these experiences inspired my work and I am grateful to all those who took part to them. Last but not least, I would like to express my gratitude to my parents and my family for the unconditional support throughout my studies. Finally, I would like to thank Francesco, without whose encouragement and assistance I would not have finished this thesis. 3 Table of Contents TABLE OF FIGURES 7 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 8 INTRODUCTION 10 PRELIMINARY REMARKS 10 RESEARCH STRUCTURE AND METHODOLOGY 15 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO THE ARCTIC REGION 17 1.1 DEFINITIONS AND KEY TERMS 17 1.2 LEGAL FRAMEWORK 19 1.2 UNCLOS 19 1.2.2 Other agreements 22 1.3 ARCTIC STATES AND THE ARCTIC COUNCIL 24 1.3.1 The Arctic Five 25 1.3.2 The Arctic Eight and the Arctic Council 25 1.4. EU, NATO, AND NON-‐ARCTIC STATES INVOLVEMENT IN THE ARCTIC 27 1.4.1 The European Union Arctic policy 27 1.4.2 Non-‐Arctic states involvement 30 1.4.3 The Arctic and NATO: active engagement? 31 1.5 RESOURCES AND POTENTIAL 33 1.5.1 Ownership of resources 33 1.5.2 Fisheries 34 1.5.3 Mining 35 1.5.4 Shipping 35 1.5.5 Oil and gas sector 37 CHAPTER 2 ARCTIC GOVERNANCE: SETTINGS, TRENDS, AND CHALLENGES 39 2.1 GOVERNANCE: DEFINITION, KEY FEATURES, AND CHALLENGES 39 2.1.1 Defining the concept of governance 40 2.1.2 Global governance: key features 41 2.1.3 Global governance: challenges and objectives 43 4 2.2 ARCTIC GOVERNANCE: DEFINITION, KEY FEATURES, AND CHALLENGES 44 2.2.1 Defining the concept of Arctic governance 44 2.2.2 Arctic governance: key features 45 2.2.3 Arctic governance: challenges and objectives 46 2.3 ARCTIC GOVERNANCE SETTINGS 50 2.3.1 Overview of Arctic governance settings 51 2.3.2 International governance of the Arctic 54 2.3.3 Regional governance of the Arctic 55 2.3.4 National governance: Arctic states policies 65 2.4 ARCTIC GOVERNANCE: LATEST TRENDS IN GOVERNANCE SETTINGS 73 2.4.1 Arctic international governance: exploring trends and features 74 2.4.2 Arctic regional governance: exploring trends and features 76 2.4.3 Arctic states: trends in national policies 80 CHAPTER 3 ARCTIC GOVERNANCE SCENARIOS 83 3.1 SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF ARCTIC GOVERNANCE 84 3.1.1 Overview of Arctic governance models 84 3.1.2 Proposal for a model of Arctic governance 85 3.2 ARCTIC TREATY 89 3.2.1 Hard law as a governance pathway for the future 89 3.2.2 The Antarctic treaty system: setting out the grounds for a comparison 90 3.2.3 The case for a comprehensive international treaty of the Arctic 92 3.2.4 Counter-‐arguments: hard law options and weaknesses of binding regimes 95 3.2.5 SWOT analysis: Arctic treaty scenario at a glance 98 3.3 ARCTIC INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATION 99 3.3.1 From Arctic Council to Arctic International Organisation 99 3.3.2 The case for the reform of the Arctic Council 102 3.3.3 Counter-‐arguments: unfeasibility of the AIO 106 3.3.4 SWOT analysis: AIO scenario at a glance 108 3.4 SOFT LAW SCENARIO 109 3.4.1 Soft law and the Arctic: in search of a cooperative solution 109 3.4.2 The case for a soft law scenario 110 3.4.3 Counter-‐arguments: too soft? 114 3.4.4 SWOT analysis: soft law scenario at a glance 115 3.5 REGIONAL INTEGRATED AGREEMENT 116 3.5.1 Regional solutions to global problems 116 5 3.5.2 The case for a regional agreement and EBM in the Arctic 118 3.5.3 Counter-‐arguments: a feasible option? 122 3.5.4 SWOT analysis: regional integrated agreement scenario at a glance 124 6. PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS 125 CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSION 126 4.1 CURRENT SITUATION AND CHALLENGES AHEAD 126 4.2 IDENTIFYING GOVERNANCE TRENDS 128 4.3 IDENTIFYING GOVERNANCE DEMANDS AND ASSESSING POSSIBLE SCENARIOS 130 4.4 ON THE RADAR OF ARCTIC GOVERNANCE: GUIDELINES FOR THE FUTURE 134 REFERENCES 137 6 Table of figures FIGURE 1 AMAP DEFINITION OF THE ARCTIC ........................................................................................ 18 FIGURE 2 MARITIME ZONES UNDER UNCLOS ........................................................................................ 19 FIGURE 3 ARCTIC GOVERNANCE ARRANGEMENTS ................................................................................... 52 FIGURE 4 ARCTIC GOVERNANCE ARRANGEMENTS AND OVERLAPPING STATE MEMBERSHIP ............. 53 FIGURE 5 MAIN FEATURES OF INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNANCE SETTINGS ................. 74 FIGURE 6 RESEARCH ADDED VALUE .......................................................................................................... 87 FIGURE 7 MODEL FOR SCENARIO ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 88 FIGURE 8 DESCRIPTION OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS ................................................................................... 89 FIGURE 9 SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE ARCTIC TREATY SCENARIO ........................................................... 99 FIGURE 10 SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE AIO SCENARIO .......................................................................... 108 FIGURE 11 SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE SOFT LAW SCENARIO ................................................................ 115 FIGURE 12 SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL INTEGRATED SCENARIO ........................................ 125 7 List of abbreviations AC Arctic Council AIO Arctic International Organisation AMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program AMSA Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Artt. Articles BEAC Barents Euro-‐Arctic Council BRC Barents Regional Council CBSS Council of the Baltic Sea States EBM Ecosystem Based Management EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone IMO International Maritime Organisation ICC Inuit Circumpolar Council NC Nordic Council NCM Nordic Council of Ministers ND Northern Dimension NEAFC Northeast Atlantic Fisheries Commission NF Northern Forum POPs Persistent Organic Pollutants PPs Permanent Participants SAR Search and Rescue SWOT Strengths-‐Weaknesses-‐Opportunity-‐Threats UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea UNFCC United Nations 8 The Arctic is not only the Arctic Ocean, but also the northern tips of three continents: Europe, Asia and America. It is the place where Eurasian, North American and Asian Pacific regions meet, where frontiers come close to one another and the interests of the states belonging to mutually opposed military blocs and nonaligned ones cross. M. Gorbachev, Murmansk Speech, 1987 9 Introduction Preliminary remarks In the next few years, the Arctic is going to face new challenges and transboundary threats. Global climate change will bring deep changes to the Arctic ecosystem with economic, political, environmental, and social repercussions. Prospects of expanded navigable routes constitute one of the greatest challenges to Arctic governance. According to the United States Arctic Research Commission, in 2012 the ice cap of the Arctic Ocean reached its lowest level since the first observation made by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in 1979.1 In September 2012, 40 percent of the Central Arctic Ocean was free from ice. In the next decade, sea ice reduction will expand navigable routes connecting the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean in summer time. Observations of lowering sea ice levels 1 US Arctic Research Commission (USARC), 2013. Report on the Goals and Objectives for Arctic Research 2013-‐2014. Available at http://www.arctic.gov/publications/goals/usarc_goals_2013-‐ 14.pdf. [Accessed 19th April 2015]. 10
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