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Prospects of Arctic governance PDF

156 Pages·2015·1.86 MB·English
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Double  Master’s  Degree  in  International  Relations   MGIMO  –  LUISS  Guido  Carli   Department  of  Political  Science   Chair  of  International  Organisation  and  Human  Rights       Prospects  of  Arctic  governance :   critical  analysis  of  current  trends  and  future  scenarios       SUPERVISOR   CANDIDATE   Professor  Elena  Sciso   Eleonora  Milazzo   Professor  Lev  S.  Voronkov   Student  Reg.  n.  622882     CO-­‐SUPERVISOR   Professor  Maria  Beatrice  Deli         Academic  year  2014/2015 To  my  family. Acknowledgments   First  and  foremost,  I  would  like  to  express  my  deepest  gratitude  to  my  supervisors,   Professor  Elena  Sciso  (LUISS),  and  Professor  Lev  S.  Voronkov  (MGIMO),  who  have   supported   me   throughout   my   thesis   with   their   patience   and   knowledge   whilst   allowing  me  the  room  to  work  in  my  own  way.  Their  expertise,  understanding,  and   patience,  added  considerably  to  my  graduate  studies.   This  thesis  is  the  result  of  many  experiences  I  have  encountered  in  the  past  two   years.  During  my  time  in  Moscow,  I  have  been  given  the  unique  opportunity  to  carry   out  a  research  period  at  the  Russian  International  Affairs  Council  (RIAC).  I  wish  to   thank   all   RIAC   staff,   and   in   particular   Liudmila   Filippova   and   Ilya   Ivanov,   for   introducing  me  to  the  Arctic.   I  am  grateful  to  Dominic  Marcellino,  Elizabeth  Tedsen,  and  Arne  Riedel  (Ecologic   Institute),   Daniel   Bennett   (Atlantic   Council),   and   Edvard   Glucksman   (ELEEP   Network)   for   their   guidance   and   encouragement   during   my   time   at   Ecologic   Institute  as  Arctic  Climate  Change  Emerging  Leaders  (ACCEL)  Fellow.  The  ACCEL   Fellowship  has  been  an  exceptionally  enriching  experience  and  I  am  grateful  to   them  for  having  made  it  really  unique.   Special  thanks  goes  to  Pavel  Gudev,  IMEMO  RAN,  for  generously  providing  me  with   his  valuable  insights  on  Arctic  governance.   While  working  on  this  thesis,  I  took  part  to  many  activities,  including  the  Potsdam   Summer  School  Arctic  in  the  Anthropocene,  the  Arctic  Summer  College,  and  the   Arctic  Circle  Conference  in  Reykjavik.  All  these  experiences  inspired  my  work  and  I   am  grateful  to  all  those  who  took  part  to  them.   Last  but  not  least,  I  would  like  to  express  my  gratitude  to  my  parents  and  my  family   for  the  unconditional  support  throughout  my  studies.   Finally,   I   would   like   to   thank   Francesco,   without   whose   encouragement   and   assistance  I  would  not  have  finished  this  thesis.       3 Table  of  Contents     TABLE  OF  FIGURES          7   LIST  OF  ABBREVIATIONS          8   INTRODUCTION      10   PRELIMINARY  REMARKS      10   RESEARCH  STRUCTURE  AND  METHODOLOGY      15   CHAPTER  1   INTRODUCTION  TO  THE  ARCTIC  REGION      17   1.1  DEFINITIONS  AND  KEY  TERMS      17   1.2  LEGAL  FRAMEWORK      19   1.2  UNCLOS      19   1.2.2  Other  agreements      22   1.3  ARCTIC  STATES  AND  THE  ARCTIC  COUNCIL      24   1.3.1  The  Arctic  Five      25   1.3.2  The  Arctic  Eight  and  the  Arctic  Council      25   1.4.  EU,  NATO,  AND  NON-­‐ARCTIC  STATES  INVOLVEMENT  IN  THE  ARCTIC      27   1.4.1  The  European  Union  Arctic  policy      27   1.4.2  Non-­‐Arctic  states  involvement      30   1.4.3  The  Arctic  and  NATO:  active  engagement?      31   1.5  RESOURCES  AND  POTENTIAL      33   1.5.1  Ownership  of  resources      33   1.5.2  Fisheries      34   1.5.3  Mining      35   1.5.4  Shipping      35   1.5.5  Oil  and  gas  sector      37   CHAPTER  2   ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE:  SETTINGS,  TRENDS,  AND  CHALLENGES    39   2.1  GOVERNANCE:  DEFINITION,  KEY  FEATURES,  AND  CHALLENGES      39   2.1.1  Defining  the  concept  of  governance      40   2.1.2  Global  governance:  key  features      41   2.1.3  Global  governance:  challenges  and  objectives      43     4 2.2  ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE:  DEFINITION,  KEY  FEATURES,  AND  CHALLENGES      44   2.2.1  Defining  the  concept  of  Arctic  governance      44   2.2.2  Arctic  governance:  key  features      45   2.2.3  Arctic  governance:  challenges  and  objectives      46   2.3  ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE  SETTINGS      50   2.3.1  Overview  of  Arctic  governance  settings      51   2.3.2  International  governance  of  the  Arctic      54   2.3.3  Regional  governance  of  the  Arctic      55   2.3.4  National  governance:  Arctic  states  policies      65   2.4  ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE:  LATEST  TRENDS  IN  GOVERNANCE  SETTINGS      73   2.4.1  Arctic  international  governance:  exploring  trends  and  features      74   2.4.2  Arctic  regional  governance:  exploring  trends  and  features      76   2.4.3  Arctic  states:  trends  in  national  policies      80   CHAPTER  3   ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE  SCENARIOS    83   3.1  SCENARIOS  FOR  THE  FUTURE  OF  ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE      84   3.1.1  Overview  of  Arctic  governance  models      84   3.1.2  Proposal  for  a  model  of  Arctic  governance      85   3.2  ARCTIC  TREATY      89   3.2.1  Hard  law  as  a  governance  pathway  for  the  future      89   3.2.2  The  Antarctic  treaty  system:  setting  out  the  grounds  for  a  comparison      90   3.2.3  The  case  for  a  comprehensive  international  treaty  of  the  Arctic      92   3.2.4  Counter-­‐arguments:  hard  law  options  and  weaknesses  of  binding  regimes      95   3.2.5  SWOT  analysis:  Arctic  treaty  scenario  at  a  glance      98   3.3  ARCTIC  INTERNATIONAL  ORGANISATION      99   3.3.1  From  Arctic  Council  to  Arctic  International  Organisation      99   3.3.2  The  case  for  the  reform  of  the  Arctic  Council   102   3.3.3  Counter-­‐arguments:  unfeasibility  of  the  AIO   106   3.3.4  SWOT  analysis:  AIO  scenario  at  a  glance   108   3.4  SOFT  LAW  SCENARIO   109   3.4.1  Soft  law  and  the  Arctic:  in  search  of  a  cooperative  solution   109   3.4.2  The  case  for  a  soft  law  scenario   110   3.4.3  Counter-­‐arguments:  too  soft?   114   3.4.4  SWOT  analysis:  soft  law  scenario  at  a  glance   115   3.5  REGIONAL  INTEGRATED  AGREEMENT   116   3.5.1  Regional  solutions  to  global  problems   116     5 3.5.2  The  case  for  a  regional  agreement  and  EBM  in  the  Arctic   118   3.5.3  Counter-­‐arguments:  a  feasible  option?   122   3.5.4  SWOT  analysis:  regional  integrated  agreement  scenario  at  a  glance   124   6.  PRELIMINARY  CONCLUSIONS   125   CHAPTER  4   CONCLUSION   126   4.1  CURRENT  SITUATION  AND  CHALLENGES  AHEAD   126   4.2  IDENTIFYING  GOVERNANCE  TRENDS   128   4.3  IDENTIFYING  GOVERNANCE  DEMANDS  AND  ASSESSING  POSSIBLE  SCENARIOS   130   4.4  ON  THE  RADAR  OF  ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE:  GUIDELINES  FOR  THE  FUTURE   134   REFERENCES   137                             6 Table  of  figures     FIGURE  1  AMAP  DEFINITION  OF  THE  ARCTIC  ........................................................................................  18   FIGURE  2  MARITIME  ZONES  UNDER  UNCLOS  ........................................................................................  19   FIGURE  3  ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE  ARRANGEMENTS  ...................................................................................  52   FIGURE  4  ARCTIC  GOVERNANCE  ARRANGEMENTS  AND  OVERLAPPING  STATE  MEMBERSHIP  .............  53   FIGURE  5  MAIN  FEATURES  OF  INTERNATIONAL  AND  REGIONAL  GOVERNANCE  SETTINGS  .................  74   FIGURE  6  RESEARCH  ADDED  VALUE  ..........................................................................................................  87   FIGURE  7  MODEL  FOR  SCENARIO  ANALYSIS  ..............................................................................................  88   FIGURE  8  DESCRIPTION  OF  THE  FOUR  SCENARIOS  ...................................................................................  89   FIGURE  9  SWOT  ANALYSIS  OF  THE  ARCTIC  TREATY  SCENARIO  ...........................................................  99   FIGURE  10  SWOT  ANALYSIS  OF  THE  AIO  SCENARIO  ..........................................................................  108   FIGURE  11  SWOT  ANALYSIS  OF  THE  SOFT  LAW  SCENARIO  ................................................................  115   FIGURE  12  SWOT  ANALYSIS  OF  THE  REGIONAL  INTEGRATED  SCENARIO  ........................................  125                             7 List  of  abbreviations     AC       Arctic  Council   AIO       Arctic  International  Organisation   AMAP     Arctic  Monitoring  and  Assessment  Program   AMSA     Arctic  Marine  Shipping  Assessment   Artt.       Articles   BEAC     Barents  Euro-­‐Arctic  Council     BRC       Barents  Regional  Council   CBSS       Council  of  the  Baltic  Sea  States   EBM       Ecosystem  Based  Management   EEZ       Exclusive  Economic  Zone   IMO       International  Maritime  Organisation   ICC       Inuit  Circumpolar  Council   NC       Nordic  Council   NCM       Nordic  Council  of  Ministers   ND       Northern  Dimension   NEAFC     Northeast  Atlantic  Fisheries  Commission   NF       Northern  Forum   POPs       Persistent  Organic  Pollutants   PPs       Permanent  Participants   SAR       Search  and  Rescue   SWOT     Strengths-­‐Weaknesses-­‐Opportunity-­‐Threats   UNCLOS   United  Nations  Convention  on  the  Law  of  the  Sea   UNFCC     United  Nations               8 The  Arctic  is  not  only  the  Arctic  Ocean,  but  also  the  northern  tips  of  three   continents:  Europe,  Asia  and  America.  It  is  the  place  where  Eurasian,  North   American  and  Asian  Pacific  regions  meet,  where  frontiers  come  close  to  one   another  and  the  interests  of  the  states  belonging  to  mutually  opposed  military   blocs  and  nonaligned  ones  cross.     M.  Gorbachev,  Murmansk  Speech,  1987                         9 Introduction     Preliminary  remarks   In  the  next  few  years,  the  Arctic  is  going  to  face  new  challenges  and  transboundary   threats.  Global  climate  change  will  bring  deep  changes  to  the  Arctic  ecosystem  with   economic,  political,  environmental,  and  social  repercussions.     Prospects  of  expanded  navigable  routes  constitute  one  of  the  greatest  challenges  to   Arctic  governance.  According  to  the  United  States  Arctic  Research  Commission,  in   2012   the   ice   cap   of   the   Arctic   Ocean   reached   its   lowest   level   since   the   first   observation  made  by  National  Aeronautics  and  Space  Administration  (NASA)  in   1979.1  In  September  2012,  40  percent  of  the  Central  Arctic  Ocean  was  free  from  ice.   In  the  next  decade,  sea  ice  reduction  will  expand  navigable  routes  connecting  the   Arctic  and  the  Pacific  Ocean  in  summer  time.  Observations  of  lowering  sea  ice  levels                                                                                                                   1  US  Arctic  Research  Commission  (USARC),  2013.  Report  on  the  Goals  and  Objectives  for  Arctic   Research  2013-­‐2014.  Available  at  http://www.arctic.gov/publications/goals/usarc_goals_2013-­‐   14.pdf.  [Accessed  19th  April  2015].     10

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Global climate change will bring deep changes to the Arctic ecosystem with economic, political . [Accessed 7th March 2015]; Barnes, J., E., 2014. Cold War Echoes Under Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). Available at
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Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.