prospects for nuclear power in the middle east

76 Pages·2016·7.01 MB·English

PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR
POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST:
RUSSIA’S INTERESTS
Valdai Discussion Club
Grantees Report
R(cid:266)(cid:280)(cid:266)(cid:262)(cid:279)(cid:264)(cid:269) G(cid:279)(cid:276)(cid:282)(cid:277):
Sameh Aboul-Enein, Adjunct Professor, This report has been prepared as part of the
American University in Cairo, Egypt.
Research Grants Program of the Foundation
Tayseer Al-Khunaizi, Chairman, Al-Andalus for Development and Support of the Valdai
Group for Economic and Management Con- Discussion Club.
sultancy, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.
The opinions, assessments and conclusions
Valeriya Chekina, Research Associate, Center
presented in this report do not represent a
for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS),
consensus. They primarily reflect the view
Moscow, Russia.
of the editor-in-chief and do not necessarily
Serdar Erdurmaz, Director, WMD and Disar-
reflect the positions of all members of the
mament Institute, Turkish Centre for Inter-
research group, the organizations they rep-
national Relations and Strategic Analysis
resent, or the Foundation for Development and
(TURKSAM), Ankara, Turkey.
Support of the Valdai Discussion Club.
Ayman Khalil, Director, Arab Institute for
Security Studies (ACSIS), Amman, Jordan. This report includes imagery by the TASS news
agency.
Anton Khlopkov, Director, Center for Ener-
gy and Security Studies (CENESS), Moscow,
Russia.
Dmitry Konukhov, Research Associate, Cen-
ter for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS),
Moscow, Russia.
Editor-in-Chief of the report;
Chair of the Research Group:
Anton Khlopkov, Director, Center for Ener-
gy and Security Studies (CENESS), Moscow,
Russia.
ISBN 978-5-906757-15-9
PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR POWER
IN THE MIDDLE EAST: RUSSIA’S INTERESTS
Valdai Discussion Club
Grantees Report
Moscow, 2016
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ABWR — Advanced Boiling Water Reactor KNNEC — Kuwait National Nuclear Energy
Committee
ACSIS — Arab Institute for Security Studies (Jordan)
KOICA — Korea International Cooperation Agency
AEOI — Atomic Energy Organization of Iran
MEPhI — Moscow Engineering and Physics Institute
AKP — Justice and Development Party (Turkey)
MIT — Massachusetts Institute of Technology
APR — Advanced Power Reactor
NPPA — Egyptian Nuclear Power Plants Authority
AWACS — Airborne Warning and Control System
NPP — nuclear power plant
BOO — Build-Own-Operate
NPPD — Nuclear Power Production & Development
BP — British Petroleum
Company of Iran
CENESS — Center for Energy and Security Studies
NPT — Treaty on the Non-Proliferation
(Russia)
of Nuclear Weapons
CNS — Convention on Nuclear Safety
NRRA — Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory
Comecon — Council for Mutual Economic Assistance Authority (Egypt)
EAEA — Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority PBO — Plan and Budget Organization of Iran
ENEC — Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation PDA — Project Development Agreement
EPR — Evolutionary Power Reactor SESAME — Synchrotron-Light for Experimental
Science and Applications in the Middle East
ETRR — Experimental Training Research Reactor
TASAM — Turkish Asian Center for Strategic Studies
EU — European Union
TEPCO — Tokyo Electric Power Company
FANR — Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation
(UAE) TURKSAM — Turkish Centre for International
Relations and Strategic Analysis
GCC — Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the
Gulf UAE — United Arab Emirates
IAEA — International Atomic Energy Agency UN — United Nations
IAF — Islamic Action Front (Jordan) UNESCO — United Nations Educational, Scientific
and Cultural Organization
JAEC — Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
UNIDIR — United Nations Institute for Disarmament
JCPOA — Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
Research
JNRC — Jordan Nuclear Regulatory Commission
VVER — Russian version of Pressurized Water
K.A.CARE — King Abdullah City for Atomic and Reactor (PWR)
Renewable Energy
WANO — World Association of Nuclear Operators
KEPCO — Korea Electric Power Corporation
WMD — Weapons of Mass Destruction
KNF — KEPCO Nuclear Fuels
CONTENTS
5 Foreword
7 1. Prospects for nuclear energy development in the Middle East
7 1.1. Growing interest to nuclear energy in the Middle East: 2005–2010
7 Facts and figures
9 Reasons and incentives to pursue nuclear energy
14 1.2. Major factors of influence: 2010–2015
16 Accident at the Fukushima NPP
18 The Arab Spring
19 1.3. Prospects for nuclear energy development in the Middle East
in the 2030 horizon
22 2. Distinctive features and potential for nuclear energy
development in Middle Eastern countries
22 2.1. Egypt
27 2.2. Jordan
33 2.3. Iran
39 2.4. Saudi Arabia
43 2.5. United Arab Emirates
46 2.6. Turkey
51 3. Russia’s role on the world market for nuclear technologies
and potential for cooperation with Middle Eastern countries
51 3.1. Russian plans for building NPPs abroad
52 3.2. Place of the Middle East in the Russian nuclear
industry’s export plans
54 3.3. Legal framework for peaceful nuclear energy cooperation
between Russia and Middle Eastern countries
55 3.4. Outlook for Russian nuclear exports to the Middle East in the 2030
timeframe
62 Conclusion
66 Notes
Wadi Rum Desert, Jordan
4
FOREWORD
Of all the nuclear energy newcomers, i.e. The goal of this study was to analyze the
countries that have only just started to de- impact of the developments and transfor-
velop nuclear energy, Middle Eastern states mations in the Middle East that began in
are making the most dynamic progress. late 2010 — early 2011 (i.e. the events that
In September 2011 Iran became the first are often referred to as the Arab Spring) and of
country in the world in past 15 years to have the Fukushima nuclear accident on plans and
connected its first nuclear power reactor prospects for nuclear energy development
to the national grid.1 In July 2012 the UAE in the region, as well as Russia’s potential
became the first country in past 27 years role in implementing those plans.2
to start building its first-ever NPP. Extensive
United Nations documents and UN General
preparations have already been made to start
Assembly resolutions do not contain an
building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant
official definition of the Middle East. IAEA
as part of the Akkuyu project. The proce-
reports define the Middle East as the terri-
dure of choosing the technology supplier for
tory that stretches from Libya in the West to
the first NPP in Jordan has been completed.
Iran in the East, and from Syria in the North
A project development agreement to imple-
to Yemen in the South; it does not include
ment the first part of the project to build
Turkey.3
a two-unit NPP in Jordan’s central Zarqa
There is no common definition
of the Middle East in the ex-
Among all the nuclear newcomer countries, the Middle
pert community, either. Aca-
Eastern nations have some of the most ambitious
demician Evgeny Primakov,
nuclear energy plans
a renowned Russian expert
on the Middle East, opines in
his book “Confidential: Middle East on the
Province was signed in September 2014. In
Stage and Behind the Curtains” that the re-
Saudi Arabia, work has begun to develop
gion comprises all the Arab states (including
a national nuclear infrastructure required
those in North Africa) plus Israel and Iran.4
for effective and safe peaceful use of nu-
clear energy. Despite several recent changes Some experts in the region believe that in
of government and ongoing security prob- view of the latest trend for the blurring of
lems in the country, Egypt remains commit- national boundaries, the appearance of new
ted to nuclear energy development. states, and the growing influence of non-
state actors, the term “Middle East” in its
Of all the nuclear newcomer countries, Mid-
traditional sense is becoming irrelevant.
dle Eastern states also tend to be the most
ambitious (although whether some of the For the purposes of this study, we have
announced plans and deadlines are realistic defined the Middle East as all the Persian
is another matter). Iran, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman,
Turkey have announced they will build from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE), plus Egypt,
16 to 23 nuclear power reactors apiece in Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian National
less than 20 years. Authority, Syria, Turkey, and Yemen.
5
The study was conducted by a team of tables held in November 2012 — December
researchers from Russia and the Middle East 2015, including the workshop hosted by the
countries. A significant contribution was also United Nations Institute for Disarmament
made by reviewers and consultants from Research (UNIDIR) and the Moscow Non-
Russia and other countries who verified the proliferation Conference.5
accuracy of the data used in this paper and
The members of the research group would
reviewed the drafts. A series of interviews
like to thank the Foundation for Develop-
conducted by the members of the research
ment and Support of the Valdai Discussion
group with experts and officials from Bahrain,
Club, whose support was instrumental.
The opinions, assessments
and conclusions presented in
In 2005–2010, 13 Middle Eastern states announced
this paper do not represent
plans to build about 90 nuclear power reactors
a consensus. They primarily
at 26 different sites by 2030
reflect the view of the editor-
in-chief and do not necessarily
reflect the positions of all the members of
Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi
the research group, the organizations they
Arabia, the UAE, and other Middle Eastern
represent, or the Foundation for Develop-
states played an important role in the
ment and Support of the Valdai Discussion
gathering of primary data.
Club.
Interim results of this study were unveiled This study was largely completed in
for a broad discussion at several internati- September 2015, with the latest edits and
onal conferences, workshops, and round minor updates added in January 2016.
6
PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR
1.

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
1.1. GROWING INTEREST TO NUCLEAR nuclear technologies to meet its national
ENERGY IN THE MIDDLE EAST: 2005(cid:515)2010. energy needs. The only two exceptions
Facts and figures were Lebanon and the Palestinian National
According to the International Atomic Energy Authority. Some of the states that unveiled
Agency (IAEA), as of September 2010 there nuclear energy plans, such as Egypt and
were 441 nuclear power reactors in operati- Turkey, had already had decades of relevant
on in 29 countries. The share of nuclear experience and formidable expertise in that
energy in the overall electricity generation area. Others, such as Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait,
was the highest in Western Europe (27%) Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen, had not
and the lowest in Southeast Asia and the previously demonstrated any great interest
Middle East, where it stood at zero.6 IAEA in peaceful nuclear energy.
documents also mentioned, however, that
In December 2007 members of the Gulf
65 new countries had expressed interest in
Cooperation Council (GCC) held a meeting
developing nuclear energy. About a fifth of
to discuss plans for joint implementation
those countries are Middle Eastern states.
of nuclear energy programs. In practice,
By late 2010, amid a strong resurgence however, each of these countries has begun
of interest in nuc lear energy around the to implement its own national program,
world, almost every single country in the without any meaningful coordination with
Middle East had announced plans of using the other GCC states. In fact, there is more
of competition than cooperation in these
countries’ relations as far as nuclear energy
The Masjid al-Haram during hajj, programs are concerned.
Mecca, Saudi Arabia
According to all the statements
made by Middle Eastern
leaders and senior officials
in the first decade of the 21st
century (mainly in the late
2000s), there were plans
to build approximately 90
nuclear power reactors at 26
sites (NPPs) in 13 states in
the region over the following
20 years (i.e. by 2030). Six
countries — Bahrain, Egypt,
Iran, Jordan, the UAE, and
Yemen — were planning
7
to launch their first nuclear power reactors world every year. As many as 34 reactors
by 2017. An average of six new power were launched in 1984. As of late 2010 —
reactors were to be launched in the Middle i.e. before the Arab Spring and the Fukushi-
East every year between 2018 and 2030. ma accident — the Middle Eastern countries
For more details, see Fig. 1 ‘Nuclear Energy had very ambitious nuclear energy plans.
Development Plans in the Middle East before They accounted for about 20% of the global
Fukushima and the Arab Spring’.7 plans for building new nuclear energy reac-
tors. These programs jointly were probably
When the global nuclear energy sector was
as ambitious as the ones pursued by the
at its peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s,
developed countries during the golden age
there was an average of 22 nuclear reactors
of nuclear energy in the 1970s and 1980s.8
being launched in countries around the
8