Progression Blackjack: Exposing the Card Counting Myth

169 Pages·2000·12.21 MB·English

by  Donald Dahl

PROGRESSION
BLACKJACK
Exposing the Card Counting Myth
Donald A. Dahl
A CITADEL PRESS BOOK
Published by Carol Publishing Group
CarolPublishingGroupEdition,1996
Copyright©1993byDonaldA.Dahl
Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyform,
exceptbyanewspaperormagazinereviewerwhowishestoquotebrief
passagesinconnectionwithareview.
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Dahl,DonaldA.
Progressionblackjack: exposingthecardcountingmyth /
byDonaldA.Dahl.
p. CIn.
ACitadelPressbook."
1/
ISBN0-8065-1396-9
1. Blackjack(Game). I. Title.
GV1295.B55D34 1993
795.4'2-dc20 92-38085
eIP
Knowing that billions of hard-earned dollars have been lost by
millionsofwell-motivatedbutmisinformedandunderfinancedcard
counters, my own motivation to write Progression Blackjack be
came·well grounded. The love, help, and, most ofall, encourage
ment given by my father, Warner ("Buzz") Dahl, and my wife,
Robin, made it all possible.
Contents
Introduction xii
1 Casino Blackjack 1
THE CASINO'S GOAL. WHY B.J. IS THE BESTGAME IN
THE "HOUSE" • CASINO PERKS • ATLANTIC CITY
DRAWBACKS • PROCEDURES • RULES • TABLE LAYOUT
• NUMBER OF PLAYERS • THE CUT • THE DEAL •
BETTINGTABLE LIMITS • THE OBJECTIVE • PLAY •
CARD VALUES • HITTING • BUSTING • STANDING •
WHEN DEALER MUST HIT • PUSH • SPLITTING •
DOUBLE DOWN • NATURALS • INSURANCE • THE BASIC
PLAY STRATEGY.. SOFT HANDS • HARD HANDS •
BEATINGTHE CASINO. "KNOW ITALL'S" • CARD
COUNTERS • TABLE ETIQUETTE • TIPPING • AVOIDING
AMATEURS • UNFRIENDLY DEALERS
2 AWinningPlay Strategy 9
THE WINNING ELEMENTS • PLAY STRATEGYORIGIN •
PLAY STRATEGY GOAL • HARD HITTING • HARD
STANDING • STIFF HANDS • MINIMIZING LOSS.ES •
PROBABILITIES • TAKING ADVANTAGE OF HOUSE RULES •
SOFT HITTING • SOFT STANDING • THE MOST MISPLAYED
HANDS • HARD DOUBLE DOWN • TAKING ADVANTAGE •
SOFT DOUBLE DOWN • CASHING IN ON LIBERAL RULES •
vii
viii PROGRESSION BLACKJACK
BETTING ON THE DEALER'S BUST. SACRIFICING THE
GLITZ FORTHE GOLD • SPLITTING PAIRS • SPLIT
CRITERIA • INSURANCE • AGUARANTEED PROFIT ,.
SUMMARY • PLAY STRATEGYTABLE
3 Systems 25
COUNT SYSTEM ORIGIN • WHY SYSTEMS FAILT • THE
MARTINGALE SYSTEM • DOUBLE UP THEORY • WHY THE
TABLE LIMITS • SYSTEMS FOR SUCKERS • THE FIVE
COUNT • FIVE COUNTTHEORY • DETERMINING THE FIVE
COUNT • THE TEN COUNT • TEN COUNTTHEORY •
DETERMINING THE TEN COUNT • THE 'COLDTIMES" •
END PLAY • THE END OFTHE COUNTER ERA • POINT
COUNT • DETERMININGTHE POINTCOUNT • POINT
COUNTTHEORY • DETERMININGTHE INDEX • COUNT
INADEQUACIES • SHUFFLE TRACKING • THE RANDOM
SHUFFLE • ALTERNATIVE TO SHUFFLE TRACKING •
SUMMARY
4 AWinningProgression 38
ACASINO EXECUTIVE OPENS MY EYES • THE KEYTO
PROFITABLE B.J. • WHY CARD COUNTING CAN BE
DISCARDED • WHY MOSTPEOPLE LOSE • BEATING THE
CASINO • PLAYING BLACKJACK ON (CHOUSE" MONEY •
FIRSTEXPERIENCE WITH APROGRESSION SYSTEM •
SUCCESS IN FREEPORT • DEVELOPING ASUPERIOR
PROGRESSION. THE TEN-DOLLAR PROGRESSION.
EXPECTED PROFITS • SKIP BET RULES • PROGRESSION
ADVANTAGES • MAKING THE MOST OF AFAVORABLE SHOE
• A COUNTER LEARNS ALESSON • THE TWO-DOLLAR
PROGRESSION • WHERE TO FINDTHE LOWERTABLE
LIMITS • AQUICK HUNDRED • FIVE-DOLLAR
PROGRESSION • TABLE AVAILABILITY • HOWCASINOS
FORCE YOU TO OVERBET • THROWING AWAY TWENTY
GRAND • THE TWENTY-FIVE DOLLARPROGRESSION •
THE FIFTY-DOLLARPROGRESSION. THE HUNDRED-
DOLLAR PROGRESSION • SUMMARY • PROGRESSION
TABLES
CONTENTS ix
5 Money Management 44
THE LATE-NIGHT PITCHMEN • THE TYPICAL MONEY
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM • THE CARD COUNTER BANKROLL
REQUIREMENTS • THE SPREAD • MONEY.MANAGEMENT
SIMPLIFICATION • DAILY BANKROLL • SESSION MONEY •
AREALISTIC WIN GOAL • RECOMMENDED PROGRESSION
BANKROLLS • ADJUSTING FOR ACHANGING BANKROLL •
MINIMIZING SESSION LOSSES • TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
HOT STREAKS • SUMMARY
6 Home Improvement 48
DEVELOPING WINNING SKILLS • ESTABLISHING REALISTIC
CONDITIONS • WHATTO LOOKFORIN BLACKJACK
SOFTWARE • PRACTICE TECHNIQUE • MAKING USE OF A
HAND-HELD CALCULATOR IN LIEU OF CHIPS OR COINS.
KNOWING WHEN YOU ARE PROFICIENT ENOUGHTTO TAKE
ONTHE CASINOS • BUILDING CONFIDENCE IN MY PLAY
STRATEGYAND BETTING PROGRESSIONS
7 The Card Counter Challenge 51
SUGARCOATING THE COUNTSYSTEMS • COUNT SYSTEM
REALITY • WHATTHE EXPERTS FAIL TO TELL US • THE
HEAD-TO-HEAD CHALLENGE. DUPLICATE BLACKJACK.
THE IRONY OFTHE CHALLENGE • WHYTHE CARD
COUNTING STRATEGY IS A BUST • SUMMARY
8 Blackjack"Past" 55
PREHISTORIC GAMBLE • THE BIRTH OF PLAYING CARDS •
FmSTBLUE LAW • FIRST LEGISLATION • THE ORIGIN OF
BLACKJACK • THE WILD WEST • NEVADA AND CASINO
GAMBLING • EARLY PLAYER CONCERNS • CHEATING •
PEEKING • DEALING SECONDS • MARKING CARDS •
STACKING THE DECKS • THE MECHANICS • SHARING THE
PIE • JOHN SCARNE • THE FOUR-DECK SHOE • THE
INDICATOR CARD • FACE UP IN CUBA • CARD COUNTING
IS INTRODUCED • SCARNE TAKES ON BUGSY SIEGEL •
THE FIRST BARRED • SMITH GETS THE CREDIT • THE
LIBERAL RULES • ATRUE BONANZA • ICING ON THE
x PROGRESSION BLACKJACK
CAKE • TIME TO SURRENDER • BONUSES • RIPE FOR
THE PICKING • DISHONEST PLAYERS • PLAY STRATEGY IS
BORN '. THE U.S. ARMY COMESTOTHE RESCUE.
EDWARD O. THORP • JULIAN BRAUN • PUTTING ITALL
TOGETHER • ASTAR IS BORN • THE COUNTERS INVADE
• THE DEFENSE • CHANGESTHAT BACKFIRED • SOUND
MINDS PREVAIL • MULTIPLE DECKS • UNSEEN CARDS •
END PLAY'S DEATH IN THE U.S•• SURRENDER BITES THE
DUST • DEAL 'EM UP • DON'TTOUCH THATCARD • THE
THREAT DIES • DRUMMING UP BUSINESS • ACASINO
INSIDER SPEAKS • MIKE GOODMAN • WHY PLAYERS
LOSE. ·TAKING ON THE EXPERTS. AWINNING
PROGRESSION • I SEE THE LIGHT • BEING AHIGH
ROLLER. ROBIN'S ROLL. HAVINGTHE PIT BOSS'S
ATTENTION • EARNED RESPECT • COMPS • CASINOS
RARELY FLINCH • NO DEFENSE • THROUGHTHE YEARS
• CHEATING AS ACRUTCH • BUSINESS BOOMS • RETURN
OF LIBERALRULES • ANEWVARIATION • ATLANTIC CITY
JOINS THE FOLD • THE SLUM • TOO RICH FOR MY
BLOOD • SURRENDER LIVES GAIN • KEN USTON • THE
LAWSUIT • THE DECISION • EVERYBODY WINS • MEDAL
OF HONOR • KEEPINGTHE MYTH ALIVE • THE MEN OF
BLACKJACK • MILKING IT • LOOKING ELSEWHERE •
LAMBS TO ASLAUGHTER • SHOTATTHE GOOD LIVE
9 Blackjack"Presentand Future" 69
THE LEADING INDUSTRY • GAMBLING EXPANDS • ROCKY
MOUNTAIN HIGH • MAAND PA CASHING IN • FEATURED
GAME. INDIANS CATCH THE FEVER. AGAMBLER'S
PARADISE • LOTTO FEVER • READ MY LIPS • SINNERS
UNITE • FASTTRACKTO HELL • NO NEWTAXES • THE
FEAR OF ORGANIZED CRIME • TIGHTCONTROLS • SMALL
LIMITS • THE COMPETITION HEATS UP • DISNEYLAND
WITH DICE. MGM'S PLAN. THE LAS VEGAS ADVISOR.
THE BIG ROLL • ANOTHER POOR LOSER • TRAVEL
PACKAGES • FRONT MONEY • TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE •
TAKE ADVANTAGE • THE MONOPOLY ENDS • ATLANTIC
CITY MUST LOOSEN UP • CRUISES TO NOWHERE • A
DEAL • TIP OFTHE ICEBERG • RETURN OF LIBERAL
CONTENTS xi
RULES • PACK THE HOUSE • THE AUTOMATIC SHUFFLE
• TAKING THE BLACKJACK OUTOF BLACKJACK • SYSTEM
PLAYERS NEVER QUIT • PROGRESSION BLACKJACK UNDER
ATTACK • THE GREAT HOAX • CALL ME PARANOID •
IT'S JUST ANOTHER REHASH • SHUFFLE TRACKING AND
THE DOGS • WAITING TIL HELL FREEZES OVER •
INDIANS GET A BIGGER PIECE OF THE PIE • LOOKING AT
THE FUTURE • A CONVENTION IN ACLOSET • GIVE
THEM HELL
10 The FeedbackExam 'is
CASINO BLACKJACK • AWINNING PLAY-STRATEGY •
SYSTEMS • A WINNING PROGRESSION • MONEY
MANAGEMENT • ODDS AND ENDS
11 AFinal Word llG
COMPETITION HEATS UP • FINDING LIBERAL RULES •
THE SHIFT • STANDING ON SOFT17 • DOUBLE-DECK
GAMES • WE GETTO TOUCH • BE SAFE AND SPEAK UP
• ALITTLE SPICE • SINGLE-DECK GAMES • DRAWBACKS
• SPEEDING UP THE GAME • THEY PEEK • A SECOND
LOOK • ROYAL MATCH • AWHOPPING RETURN • THEY
COME AND GO • SUCKERS? • A NEW GAME IN TOWN •
TRIPLE CHANCE. 1AGAINST 3? • THE RUB • WHAT~S
THE STRATEGY? • ACRAP SHOOT? • WHO GETS THE
CREDIT? • WHY PAY ROYALTIES? • MY FIRSTENCOUNTER
• ALONG COMES ERIN • UNPLEASANT MEMORIES • REAL
TABLES • THE BEST DEAL GOING • THE ONLY
COMPLAINT • OH, THAT FANTASTIC FOODI • GETRATED
• INTERESTING CONVERSATION • THE GHOSTS • WAS HE
ACOUNTER? • A LITTLE BAD NEWS • PICTURE THIS •
YOU SAY HE HITAWHAT? • SOMETIMES YOU JUST CAN~T
GETTHROUGH • MORE BAD NEWS • LOWERING THE
MINIMUM LIMITS • TELLTHEM DAHL SENTYOU
Appendix A: ProgressionCraps 123
THE MOST EXCITING CASINO GAME • THE OBJECT • THE
SHOOTER • THE DECISION • ESTABLISHING THE POINT
• PASS • PASS LINE BETS • WINNINGS • COMING OUT •
xii PROGRESSION BLACKJACK
COME LINE BETS • FLAT BETS • ODDS • TAXINGTHE
ODDS • SINGLE ODDS • DOUBLE ODDS • WRONG
BETTING • LAYING THE ODDS • PLACE BETS • BUY
BETS • OTHER BETS • PLAY STRATEGY • BETTING
PROGRESSIONS • PRACTICE AT HOME • MONEY
MANAGEMENT • SUMMARY
List ofTables 134
Glossary 135
Bibliography