Practical Financial Modelling (cid:84)(cid:104)(cid:105)(cid:115)(cid:32)(cid:112)(cid:97)(cid:103)(cid:101)(cid:32)(cid:105)(cid:110)(cid:116)(cid:101)(cid:110)(cid:116)(cid:105)(cid:111)(cid:110)(cid:97)(cid:108)(cid:108)(cid:121)(cid:32)(cid:108)(cid:101)(cid:102)(cid:116)(cid:32)(cid:98)(cid:108)(cid:97)(cid:110)(cid:107) Practical Financial Modelling A Guide to Current Practice 2nd Edition Jonathan Swan AMSTERDAM•BOSTON•HEIDELBERG•LONDON NEWYORK•OXFORD•PARIS•SANDIEGO SANFRANCISCO•SINGAPORE•SYDNEY•TOKYO CIMAPublishingisanimprintofElsevier CIMAPublishingisanimprintofElsevier LinacreHouse,JordanHill,OxfordOX28DP 30CorporateDrive,Suite400,Burlington,MA01803,USA Firstedition2005 Copyright©2008,ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeanselectronic,mechanical,photocopying, recordingorotherwisewithoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthepublisher PermissionsmaybesoughtdirectlyfromElsevier’sScience&TechnologyRights DepartmentinOxford,UK:phone(+44)(0)1865843830;fax(+44)(0)1865853333; e-mail:permissions@elsevier.com.Alternativelyyoucansubmityourrequestonlineby visitingtheElsevierwebsiteathttp://elsevier.com/locate/permissions,andselecting ObtainingpermissiontouseElseviermaterial Notice Noresponsibilityisassumedbythepublisherforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersons orpropertyasamatterofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuse oroperationofanymethods,products,instructionsorideascontainedinthematerial herein.Becauseofrapidadvancesinthemedicalsciences,inparticular,independent verificationofdiagnosesanddrugdosagesshouldbemade BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationData AcatalogrecordforthistitleisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress ISBN–13:978-0-7506-8647-1 ForinformationonallCIMAPublishingpublications visitourwebsiteathttp://www.cimapublishing.elsevier.com PrintedandboundinSlovenia 08 09 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Working together to grow libraries in developing countries www.elsevier.com | www.bookaid.org | www.sabre.org To Rebecca, Jack and Jeremy, for whom modelling is something to do with clay. (cid:84)(cid:104)(cid:105)(cid:115)(cid:32)(cid:112)(cid:97)(cid:103)(cid:101)(cid:32)(cid:105)(cid:110)(cid:116)(cid:101)(cid:110)(cid:116)(cid:105)(cid:111)(cid:110)(cid:97)(cid:108)(cid:108)(cid:121)(cid:32)(cid:108)(cid:101)(cid:102)(cid:116)(cid:32)(cid:98)(cid:108)(cid:97)(cid:110)(cid:107) Contents Preface to the First Edition xi Preface to the Second Edition xiii About the Author xv Introduction xvii 1 Model Structure 1 Introduction 1 Risk assessment and risk controls 2 The model developer 4 Two approaches 5 Purpose 6 Structure 7 Workbook structure 10 Inputs 11 Workings 12 Outputs 14 Variations 16 Documentation 18 Reporting 21 Reports 26 Model development 27 Navigation 32 Exercises 37 2 Quality Control 39 Introduction 39 Taxonomies of error 40 Audit tools 43 Error values 47 Audit sheet 51 Structural checks 53 viii Contents Arithmetical checks 66 Financial checks 68 Model map 73 Excel 2007 workbook tests 75 Third party model audit tools 76 Exercises 76 3 Mainly Formulas 79 Introduction 79 Range names 80 Define names 87 Additional name functionality 98 BODMAS or PEMDAS 112 Timing 112 Changing time periods 119 Circularities and iteration 123 Coercion 135 Array formulas 136 R1C1 139 Exercises 140 4 Mainly Functions 143 Introduction 143 Logical 144 Revolving credit and the cash cascade 154 Lookup 157 Financial 169 Dates 172 Other useful functions 174 Exercises 179 5 Model Use 181 Introduction 181 Risk controls 182 Grouping and outlining 182 Data inputs 185 Conditional formatting 191 Custom formatting 198 Protection 205 Contents ix Charting 209 Exercises 211 6 Sensitivity Analysis and Scenarios 213 Introduction 213 Best practice 214 Goal Seek 215 Data tables 216 Scenarios 219 Solver 231 Risk 231 Monte Carlo simulation 233 Exercises 234 7 Automation 237 Introduction 237 Macro security settings 238 Recorded macros 239 Iteration macro 240 Assigning macros 244 Written macros 247 Branching macros 249 Quarterly/annual macro 251 Error handling 252 User-defined functions 253 Deleting macros 256 Exercises 257 Appendix 1: Keyboard Shortcuts 259 Appendix 2: Good Modelling Practice 263 Appendix 3: Case Study 269 Index 271
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