Proceedings of the Second Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area

620 Pages·1992·43.2 MB·English

by  Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area (2nd : 1992 : Hayward, Calif.)

SPECIAL PUBLICATION 113
_ PrROCEEDINGS OF
THE SECOND CONFER]
DIVISION OF MINES AND GEOLOGY
JAMES F. DAVIS
STATE GEOLOGIST
Cover Photograph: View northwest along the northern Hayward fault, the most likely
structuretoproducethenextmajorearthquakeintheBayArea. Highway13approaches
along the fault from the southeast, intersecting Highway 24 near Lake Temescal. No
stranger to disaster, the area was the scene of the October 20, 1991 wildfire that
destroyed 3,200 homes and killed 25 people three days before this photo was taken.
Photo courtesy of Pacific Aerial Surveys.
SANFRANCISCOPUBLICLIBRARY
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SPECIAL PUBLICATION 113
Proceedings of
The Second Conference
on Farthquake Hazards the
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__ Edited by
GOVERNMENT INFORMATION CENTER
SAN FRANCISCO PUBUC LIBRARY LENN BORCHARDT, Chief Editor
SUE HIRSCHFELD
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SAN FRANCISCO
JAMES LIENKAEMPER
J.
PATRICK McCLELLAN
PATRICK L WILLIAMS
WONG
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PREFACE
The papers contained in this Proceedings volume were presented at the Second Conference on
Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area, held March 25-29, 1992, at California State
University, Hayward. More than 400 earth scientists, engineers, and planners gathered at the Second
Conference to hear and see 88 oral and poster papers presented during the meeting's first three days.
On the weekend of March 28 and 29 four bus loads of conference participants traveled to exemplary
sites of active faulting along the southern and northern Hayward fault, respectively. The field trips visited
sites of paleoseismological studies at Fremont's Tule Pond and Central Park; explored the abundant
evidence of fault creep in downtown Hayward; examined traces of the fault near the CSU-Hayward
campus that have cut a side-hill bench and offset a small gully above Holy Sepulchre Cemetery; visited
the famous offset curb at Prospect Court in Hayward; inspected the robust evidence offault creep in
Montclair, at UC Berkeley's Memorial Stadium, and at Contra Costa College; and observed the fault
scarp at Point Pinole where paleoseismological studies were performed on one of the last undeveloped
parts of the northern Hayward fault. The field trip guidebook, which includes 34 contributions in 225
pages, summarizes, describes, and illustrates the vast amount of knowledge gained about the Hayward
fault, particularly during the last decade. The guidebook is based on the new USGS map and guides the
reader kilometer-by-kilometer along the fault to hundreds of other features we were unable to visit on the
conference field trips.
Another important program of the Second Conference was a special non-technical forum for the Bay
Area's science teachers, elected officials, and interested citizens. This evening forum, which attracted
350 people, featured earthquake science exhibits and a panel presentation by scientists who shared with
the audience some of the important messages about earthquake hazards that were reported at technical
sessions. The pamphlet produced for that forum has been reprinted at the end of this volume.
We appreciate the great effort and long hours spent by those who helped organize the conference: the
Executive Planning Committee of Jon Galehouse, Sue Hirschfeld, Jim Lienkaemper, Patrick McClellan,
Alexis Moiseyev, and John Williams; Program Planning Committee of Bill Cotton, Jon Galehouse, Sandy
Hay, Sue Hirschfeld, Jim Lienkaemper, Patrick McClellan, Jeanne Perkins, Chuck Taylor, Alan Tryhorn,
Susan Tubbesing, Tom Vlasic, John Williams, and Ivan Wong; Field Trip Committee of Glenn Borchardt,
Jon Galehouse, Tim Hall, Jim Lienkaemper, Alexis Moiseyev, Chuck Taylor, and Patrick Williams;
Budget Committee of William Bakun, Jim Lienkaemper, and Alexis Moiseyev; Publications Committee of
Glenn Borchardt, Sue Hirschfeld, Jim Lienkaemper, Patrick McClellan, Patrick Williams, and Ivan Wong;
Public Forum Committee of Patrick McClellan, William Cotton, Edward Hay, Sue Hirschfeld, Tom Vlasic,
and John Williams; Poster Session Coordinator, Ivan Wong; Local Arrangements Coordinator, Sue
Hirschfeld; Announcement Publication, Ed Bortugno and Jeanne Perkins; and Support Services from
Rebecca Currey, JoAnne Davis, Phil Garbutt, Terry Smith, Ruth Carlson, and the Pioneer Bookstore.
We thank the following sponsoring organizations: Association of Bay Area Governments; Association
of Engineering Geologists; Bay Area Regional Earthquake Preparedness Project, California Office of
Emergency Services; California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology; California
State University, Hayward, San Francisco, and San Jose; City of San Leandro; Seismological Society of
America; and the U.S. Geological Survey.
We thank the authors and reviewers of the papers. This volume would not have been published without
the genial help of DMG staff members Ross Martin, Richard Adrianowicz, Nancy David, Dave Wagner,
Earl Hart, and Lena Tabilio.
The PioneerBookstore, CaliforniaStateUniversity, 25976CarlosBeeBlvd.,Hayward, CA, 94542 (510-881-3507)
sellscopiesofthe 1992fieldtripguidebook ($16.00), areprintofthe 1982fieldtripguidebook ($9.00),the 1992
Program and Abstracts ($5.75), and the new USGS map ofthe Hayward fault (MF-2196) ($3.50). Shipping and
handling is $5.00 for the first item ($4.00 forthe map) and $2.00 for each additional item.
Visa and MasterCard are accepted.
Digitized by the Internet Archive
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iv
Contents
Preface iii
Introduction xi
Chapter Framework and Seismology of the East Bay
1 . . .
Tectonic Setting of the San Francisco Bay Region
Benjamin M. Page 1
BASIX: The Bay Area Seismic Imaging Experiment Report
Thomas V. McEvilly and Jill McCarthy , 8
Geometry of the San Francisco Bay Area Faults: Preliminary Results from BASIX
Patrick E. Hart, Richard Clymer, and Eleni D. Karageorgi 9
The Seismotectonics of the Eastern San Francisco Bay Region
David H. Oppenheimer and Nan Macgregor-Scott 11
Tectonic Significance of the Neogene Berkeley Hills Fold and Thrust Belt
David L. Jones and Earl Brahb 17
High Resolution Marine Seismic Reflection Profiles Across East Bay Faults
RobertoJ. Anima, Patrick L. Williams, and Jill McCarthy 18
Late Quaternary Stratigraphy of the East Bay Plain
J. David Rogers and Sands H. Figuers 19
Tectonics of a Transprcssive Plate Boundary: A New Paradigm for the Central California Coast Ranges
David L. Jones 28
Long-Term Displacement Rates of the San Andreas Fault System in
Northern California from the 6-Ma Roblar tuff
Andrei M. Sarna-Wojcicki 29
Chapter 2 Crustal Strain and Earthquake Process in the San Francisco Bay Area
. . .
Distribution of Geologic Slip and Creep Along Faults in the San Francisco Bay Region
Keith [. Kelson, William R. Lettis, and Michael Lisowski 31
The Velocity Field in the San Francisco Bay Area and the Inferred Depth ofCreep on the Hayward Fault
Michael Lisowski and James C. Savage 39
Creep Rates and Creep Characteristics of Eastern San Francisco Bay Area Faults: 1979-1992
Jon S. Galehouse 45
Historical Uplift Measured Across the Eastern San Francisco Bay Region
Thomas D. Gilmore 55
Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Produced by the Loma Prieta Earthquake
Paul A. Reasenberg and Robert W. Simpson 63
Dynamic Interaction of Parallel Strike-Slip Fault-Segments: Some Implications for the
Eastern San Francisco Bay Area
Ruth A. Harris 73
Re-Evaluation of the 1838, 1865, 1868, and 1890 Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area
Martitia Tuttle and Lynn Sykes 81
v
Chapter 3 The Hayward Fault: Overview
. . .
The Seismicity ofthe Hayward Fault, California
David H. Oppenheimer, Ivan G. Wong, and Fred W. Klein 91
Hayward Fault: Large Earthquakes Versus Surface Creep
JamesJ. Lienkaemper and Glenn Borchardt 101
Pedochronology Along the Hayward Fault
Glenn Borchardt Ill
Deformation Near the Hayward Fault Associated with the 1868 Earthquake
Paul Segall and Jeffrey Freymueller 118
Chapter 4 The Hayward Fault: North
. . .
Creep and Downslope Movements in the Hayward Fault Zone in North Berkeley: Ten Years Later
David F. Hoexter, Keith Knudsen, Barry Hecht, Dennis Laduzinsky, and GeoffFiedler 121
The Hayward Fault and Deep-seated Landsliding in the Northern Berkeley Hills
Geoffrey V. Waterhouse 129
Use ofRock Fragments to Locate the Active Trace ofthe Hayward Fault, University ofCalifornia, Berkeley
Charles L. Taylor 139
Hydrogeochemical Measurements Along the Hayward Fault
Chi-Yu King, David Basler, Theresa S. Presser, William C. Evans and L.Doug White 141
The Kensington Asperity Melange
Garniss H. Curtis 142
Clastic Dike as Evidence for a Major Earthquake Along the Northern Hayward Fault in Berkeley
Glenn Borchardt and Neal Mace 143
,
Potential for Triggered Slip on Secondary Faults in the East Bay: Implications for the Planning Process
David F. Hoexter 153
New Evidence of Fault Creep on a Second Trace ofthe Hayward Fault,
Montclair Village Area ofOakland, California
Charles L. Taylor 159
Reviews of Fault Studies in Oakland
LisaS. Dirth and Alan D. Tryhorn 165
Chapter 5 The Hayward Fault: South
. . .
Geologic Record ofSouthern Hayward Fault Earthquakes
Patrick L. Williams 171
Holocene Slip Rate ofthe Hayward Fault at Union City
JamesJ. Lienkaemper and Glenn Borchardt 180
Holocene Slip Rate ofthe Hayward Fault at Fremont
Glenn Borchardt, JamesJ. Lienkaemper, and Karin E. Budding 181
Subsidiary Faulting East ofthe Hayward Fault in Southern Alameda County
William V. McCormick, Philip V. Burkland, and Pamela J. Raynak 189
A Focused Earthquake Prediction Experiment on the Southern Hayward Fault: Detection Array and
Expected Strains and Displacements during Fault Rupture
Malcolm J. S. Johnston, G. Douglas Myren, Robert J. Mueller, Alan T. Linde, and Michael T. Gladwin 197
VI
Scismicity and Faulting Near the Hayward and Mission Faults
Ivan G. Wong and Mark A. Hemphill-Haley 207
Results ofa Detailed Fault Investigation for Existing Fremont City Government Buildings
John N. Alt and Taghi Manbeian 216
The Mission Link Between the Hayward and Calaveras Faults
D. Joseph Andrews, David H. Oppenheimer, and James J. Lienkaemper 217
Fault Rupture Studies Along the Silver Creek Fault, South San Jose, California
Mark O. Wiegers and Alan D. Tryhorn 225
Identification and Proposed Mitigation of Fault Rupture Hazard Along the Hayward Fault in Milpitas
James B. Baker 231
Chapter 6 The Calaveras Fault
. . .
The Potential for Earthquake Rupture of the Northern Calaveras Fault
David U. Oppenheimer and Allan G. Lindh 233
Northward Progression ofSlip and Stress Transfer Associated with Three Sequential Earthquakes
Along the Central Calaveras Fault
Yijun Du and Atilla Aydin 241
Historical Perspective on the Location ofthe Calaveras Fault, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, California
Charles L.Taylor 249
Segmentation Model for the Northern Calaveras Fault, Calaveras Reservoir to Walnut Creek
Gary D. Simpson, William R. Lettis, and Keith I. Kelson 253
Exploring the Calaveras-Las Trampas Fault Junction in the Danville-San Ramon Area
J David Rogers and John M. Halliday 261
Tracking the Elusive Calaveras Fault from Sunol to San Ramon
J. David Rogers and John M. Halliday 271
Contemporary Deformation in the California Coast Ranges and the Preservation ofEvidence for Holocene Offset
David R. Montgomery and David L. Jones 281
Late Holocene Paleoseismic Events at Leyden Creek, Northern Calaveras Fault
Keith I. Kelson, William R. Lettis, and Gary D. Simpson 289
Recent Disruption of Packwood Creek by the Calaveras Fault
Deborah R. Harden and Alexander Gallego 299
Geologic and Seismic Hazards in the City of Morgan Hill, California
John M. Coyle and Peter C. Anderson 305
Chapter 7 Other Bay Area Faults
. . .
Progress in Understanding the Concord Fault through Site Specific Studies
ChristopherJ. Wills and Earl W. Hart 311
The Ygnacio Segment and the Southern Terminus ofthe Concord Fault
Gary A. Smith 319
The Elusive Antioch Fault
ChristopherJ. Wills 325
Holocene Faulting Near Closed Landfill Pit 6, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300
David W. Carpenter, Michael J. Taffet, John R. Copland, Robert S. Mateik, and W. Michael Wade 333
VII
Neogene Synorogenic Sedimentation in the Northern Livermore Basin, California
Kathleen A. Isaacson and David W. Andersen 339
The Miller Creek Fault and Related Structures: Neogene Kinematics ofa Potentially Active Thrust System
in the East Bay Hills, California
John Wakabayashi, David L. Smith, and Douglas H. Hamilton 345
Los Medanos Segment, Greenville-Clayton Structural Trend, Contra Costa County, California
Philip R. Patten and William B. Wigginton 355
Seismic Hazard Evaluation ofThe Vaqueros Faults in Eastern Contra Costa County, California
Norma E. Biggar and Ivan G. Wong 365
Quaternary Deformation and Blind-Thrust Faulting on the East Flank ofthe Diablo Range NearTracy, California
Janet M. Sowers, Jay S. Noller, and JeffR. Unruh 377
Chapter 8 The Rodgers Creek Fault
. . .
1898 "Mare Island" Earthquake at the Southern End ofthe Rodgers Creek Fault
Tousson R. Toppozada, John H. Bennett, Claudia L. Hallstrom, and Les G. Youngs 385
Late Holocene Behavior and Seismogenic Potential ofthe Rodgers Creek Fault Zone, Sonoma County, California
David P. Schwartz, Daniela Pantosti, Suzanne Hecker, Koji Okumura, Karin E. Budding, and Thomas Powers 393
The Healdsburg-Rodgers Creek Fault in Santa Rosa
Allen D. Bailey andJohn C. Burton 399
Holocene Faulting in a Pipeline Trench across the Rodgers Creek Fault Zone
Kenneth H. Burcham and Gary E. Van Houten 401
Right Step from the Hayward Fault to the Rodgers Creek Fault Beneath San Pablo Bay
Thomas L. Wright and Neal Smith 407
"Pseudo-mole tracks" from Clay Beds East of Healdsburg
Michael D. Malone, Glenn Borchardt, Earl W. Hart, and Stephen R. Korbay 419
Chapter 9 Earthquake Risk: RegionalAssessment
. . .
Progress in 1991 for Reducing Losses in Future San Francisco Bay Area Earthquakes
William H. Bakun 427
A Comprehensive Seismic Hazard Model for the San Francisco Bay Region
Robert R. Youngs, Kevin J. Coppersmith, Charles L. Taylor, Maurice S. Power,
Laurel A. Di Silvestro, Michael L. Angell, N. Timothy Hall, John R. Wesling, and Lalliana Mualchin 431
Assessing the Vulnerability ofthe Built Environment ofthe East Bay to Earthquake Hazards
Jeanne B. Perkins 443
Computer Software for Predicting Ground Motion from Earthquakes in the East Bay
Jack F. Evernden 451
Planning Scenario for a Major Earthquake on the Hayward Fault
Tousson R. Toppozada, Glenn Borchardt, Claudia L. Hallstrom, and Les G. Youngs 457
Planning for a USGS Contribution to Emergency Response in the Bay Area
Carl E. Mortensen 463
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