Probability density function of in-plane permeability of fibrous media: Constant Kozeny coefficient M. Bodaghia, S. Yasaei Sekehb, N. Correiac,∗ 6 1 0 2 a Engineering Design and Advanced Manufacturing, MIT Portugal Program, n Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal a J b Department of Statistics, FederalUniversityofS˜aoCarlos, SP, Brazil 4 c Institute of Mechanical Engineering and Industrial Managment, ] Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal t f o s . t a m Abstract - d n Permeabilityoffibrousporousmediaatthemicro/mesoscale-levelissubjecttosignificantuncer- o taintyduetotheheterogeneityofthefibrousmedia. Thelocalmicroscopicheterogeneityandspatial c [ variabilityporosity,tortuosityandfibrediameteraffecttheexperimentalmeasurementsofpermeabil- 1 ityatmacroscopiclevel. Thismeansthattheselectionofanappropriateprobabilitydensityfunction v 1 (PDF)isofcrucialimportance,inthecharacterizationofbothlocalvariationsatthemicroscaleand 8 theequivalentpermeabilityattheexperimentallevel(macroscale). Thisstudyaddressestheissueof 6 2 whether or not a normal distribution appropriately represents permeability variations. To do so, (i) 0 . thedistributionoflocalfibrevolumefractionforeachtowisexperimentalydeterminedbyestimation 1 0 of each pair of local areal density and thickness, (ii) the Kozeny-Carmen equation together with the 6 changeofvariabletechniqueareusedtocomputethePDFofpermeability,(iii)usingthelocalvalues 1 : offibrevolumefraction,thedistributionoflocalaveragepermeabilityiscomputedandsubsequently v i the goodness of fit of the computed PDF is compared with the distribution of the permeability at X r microscale level. Finally variability of local permeability at the microscale level is determined. a The first set of results reveals that (1) the relationship between the local areal density and local thickness in a woven carbon-epoxy composite is modelled by a bivariate normal distribution, (2) whilefibrevolumefractionfollowsanormaldistribution,permeabilityfollowsagammadistribution, (3)thisworkalsoshowsthatthereissignificantagreementbetweentheanalyticalapproachandthe simulation results. The second set of results shows that the coefficient of variation of permeability ∗ Correspondingauthor: E-mail: [email protected],Tel: (+351-229578710) 1 is one order of magnitude larger than that of fibre volume fraction. Future work will consider other variables,suchastypeoffabrics,thedegreeoffibrepreformcompactiontodeterminewhetherornot the bivariate normal model is applicable for a broad range of fabrics. 1 Introduction Fibrous media display different degrees of meso-scale variability from ideal fibre paths. This can be due to the manufacturing of the reinforcement, handling and preparing the moulding step. Resin flow inside porousmediaisinfluencedbyfibresspatialvariabilityandheterogeneity,andneglectingthiscauseserrors in process analysis and uncertainty in measurement. Thus a reliable model of fluid flow in heterogeneous mediamustincludemultiscalephenomenaandcapturethemultiscalenatureoffluidtransportbehaviour, at microscale, mesoscale and macroscale. In the sense the dominant processes and governing equations mayvarywithscales. Therefore,extendingfrommicroscaleleveltoamesoscaleoneneedsupscalingthat allows the essence of physical processes at one level to be summarized at the larger level. However, a de- tailedunderstaningofupscalingprocessfrommicroscaletomesocalehasnotbeencompleted. Mesoscopic andmacroscopicpropertiesoffibrousmediasuchasporosity, fibresizedistributionandpermeabilitycan be characterized through lab-scale methods while the microscale properties are uncaptured. The lack of abilityformeasurementsonthemicroscalecanleadtouncertaintyininterpretationsofthedatacaptured at macroscale. A major challenge arising from this non homogeneity is how macroscale flow is influenced by the microscale structure (pore spaces), as well as by the physical properties of the resin. Permeability is an important macroscale variable representing average of microscale properties of porous media. This average permeability is the fundamental property arising from Dracy’s law (1): K u= .∆p, (1D version of the equation) (1) µ whichdescribestherelationbetweenthevolumeaveragedfluidvelocity,u¯,thepressuregradient,∆p,the fluid’sviscosity,µ,andtheequivalentpermeabilitytensorK.Empiricalequations,suchasKozeny−Carmen (2), have been developed to relate the meso-scale permeability with the microscale properties, including porosity: r2 (1−V )3 K = f f . (2) k (V )2 c f Herekc =Cτ2 andτ2 = LLe,whereVf isporosity,rf isfibreradius,kc isKozenyconstant,τ istortuosity, L is the length of streamlines, L is the length of sample and C is a proportionality constant [1]. e Because the nonhomogeneous nature of porous media originates in the randomness of fibre diameter distributions, porosities and pore structure, permeability is subjected to uncertainty [2]. Causes and 2 effects of this uncertainty have been reviewed [3, 4], assuming a normal [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11] and a lognormal permeability probability density function [12], previous studies have modeled the effect of this uncertainty on fluid flow in porous media by employing stochastic analysis. Considered as a vast area in stochastic processes, such analyzes require to identify the sources of uncertainties and to select probabilistic methods for uncertainty propagation up to different modeling levels. Insimulationofmouldfillingprocess,suchasResinTransferMoulding,whicharedescribedbyDracy’slaw (1), permeability directly affects filling time and flow pattern. An accurate probability density function forpermeabilityisthereforevitalforreliablesimulations. Anumberofstudies[7,8,9,10,11,13,14]have used a normal probability density functions for experimentally determined permeability at macroscale. But their measurements have been mostly for small sample sizes and hence may still be the subject to experimental and statistical inaccuracy. In other words, data obtained from the experiments may not be enough to choose between two (normal or lognormal distribution) or more competing distribution func- tions. Furthermore,thesestudiesignoretheeffectofmicroscaleuncertaintiesonmacroscalepermeability uncertainties. Different approximation methods have been used to determine the impact of microscale uncertainties on macroscale permeability uncertainties, e.g, finite element based Monte Carlo and Lattice-Boltzmann methods have been used to estimate permeability and superficial velocity of representative volume el- ements of porous media [16, 17, 18, 4, 20]. The accuracy of the analytical methods has been debated because they have considered homogeneous periodic arrays of parallel fibres instead of random distri- butions. In addition, all of the modeling approaches require that either the distribution of at least one property of fibrous media or the distribution of macropors of fibrous media be known. Another criticism is that estimating permeability by curve fitting with empirical constants is known to generate significant systematic errors. In view of the fact that finding an appropriate distribution function describing the spatial variation of permeability in fibrous media is a challenging problem. Therefore, a method that measures the mi- crostructural variability as input for stochastic simulations is required. In the [21], we analyzed the effectoftortuosityonthevariabilityofpermeabilityattheaveragelocalfibrevolumefraction(microscale level). We showed that the Gaussian distribution is not necessarily the most appropriate distribution for representing permeability [21]. In this study, we capture the influence of a distribution of local fi- bre volume fraction (V ) on the variability of permeability. The uncertainty in this variable (e.g,V ) f f propagates to a larger level and is reflected in the variability of the geometry of flow affecting the final quality of composites. In order to establish a probability density function for permeability, in this study we propose that (i) the best probability density function may be approximated for distribution of fibre volume fraction by a normal model, (ii) the values of fibre volume fraction were used to compute the 3 distribution of permeability applying the Kozeny-Carmen equation, (iii) we used the Kozeny-Carmen equation together with change of variable technique to determine the probability density function of permeabilityand subsequentlythe analyticalapproachis comparedwiththe distributionofpermeability [23] (Figure 1). Figure 1: Flowchart for probability density function of permeability 2 The probability density function (PDF) of K There is no universal established relationship between fibre volume fraction and permeability. In this paper we recall the Carmen Kozeny equation in order to find the PDF of permeability (2). Observe that in(2)therandomvariable(RV)K isanincreasingfunctionofporosityV (assumingr2,k areconstant), f f c see Figure 2. Note also that K is significantly affected by r2. However this will not be addressed in this f 4 paper. Here we use change-of-variables technique, in this study called "the change of V ", to investigate f PDFs of permeability. This technique is a common and well-known way of finding the PDF of y =y(x) if x be a continuous random variable with a probability density function f(x). Therefore to establish the PDF of random variable K, it is required to have the PDF of V . Thus subsequently in the next section, f we determine numerically the PDF of V . f Figure 2: Continuous variation of K values as function of V f 2.1 Fibre volume fraction (V ) f Variable fibre volume fraction for a fibrous media depends on areal weight density (A ) and thickness(t) w and can be expressed as equation (3) : A n V = w (3) f ρ t f whereρ standsthefibredensity,nisnumberoflayers. Toattainaclosedformexpressionofthedensity f of V , both A and t are considered normal random variables with correlation coefficient, -1<ρ <1. f w corr When ρ =0, the two variables A and t are independent, the distribution of V would have a Cauchy corr w f 5 distribution. Note that the the Cauchy distribution does not have finite moments of any order hence the mean and variance of V are undefined. Therefore, assuming a Cauchy distribution would not be an f appropriatemodelforfibrevolumefraction. Nowsetµ :=E(A )andµ :=E(t). Inthisstageofwork Aw w t we consider the first order Taylor expansion about (µ ,µ ) for V (A ,t): Aw t f w V :=V (A ,t)=V (µ ,µ )+V(cid:48) (µ ,µ )(A −µ )+V(cid:48) (µ ,µ )(t−µ )+O(n−1), (4) f f w f Aw t fAw Aw t w Aw ft Aw t t where V(cid:48) and V(cid:48) are the derivatives of V with respect to A and t respectively. In agreement with fAw ft f w [24, 25], the approximation for µ :=E(V ) is given by Vf f (cid:16) (cid:17) µ = E V (µ ,µ )+V(cid:48) (µ ,µ )(A −µ )+V(cid:48) (µ ,µ )(t−µ )+O(n−1) Vf f Aw t fAw ρ t w Aw ft Aw t t ≈ E(cid:0)V (µ ,µ )(cid:1)+V(cid:48) (µ ,µ )E(A −µ )+V(cid:48) (µ ,µ )E(t−µ ) (5) = E(cid:0)Vf(µAw,µt)(cid:1)=nfAµw (cid:46)AAw tµ . w Aw ft Aw t t f Aw t Aw wf t By virtue of the definition of variance we can write (cid:16)A (cid:17)(cid:16) n (cid:17)2 σ2(V )=σ2 w . (6) f t A wf Next,usethefirstorderTaylorexpansiononceagainaround(µ ,µ ). Thenowingto(5)weapproximate Aw t σ2(V )≈E(cid:110)(cid:0)V (A ,t)−V (µ ,µ )(cid:1)2(cid:111). (7) f f w f Aw t Substitute (4) in (7), then (6) becomes the following: (cid:16) n (cid:17)2 (cid:16)µ 1 µ (cid:17) σ2(V )≈ σ2 Aw + (ρ−µ )− ρ(h−µ ) f A µ µ ρ µ2 h wf h h h (cid:16) n (cid:17)2 (cid:16) 1 µ (cid:17) = σ2 ρ− Awt ρ µ µ2 f h t (8) (cid:16) n (cid:17)2 1 µ2 µ = σ2(A )+ Awσ2(t)−2 AwCov(A ,t) A µ2 w µ4 µ3 w wf t t h (cid:16) n (cid:17)2µ2 (cid:18) 1 1 1 (cid:19) = Aw σ2(A )+ σ2(t)−2 Cov(A ,t) A µ2 µ2 w µ2 µ µ w wf t Aw t Aw t In (8), Cov(A ,t) expresses the covariance of A , t while as we said µ and µ are average of local w w Aw t areal density and thickness, respectively. Nowdenoteσ(A ),σ(t)asthestandarddeviationofRVsA ,tandmoreoverρ astheircorrelation w w corr coefficient and their relationship can be expressed as: Cov(A ,t)=σ(A )σ(t)ρ . (9) w w corr In addition we define the coefficient of variation (cv) of a RV, such as cv(V ): f σ(V ) cv(V )= f (10) f µ Vf 6 Consequently Eqn. (8) can be recast as: σ2(V )≈(µ )2(cv2(A )−2cv(A )cv(t)A +cv2(t)) (11) f Vf w w wcorr Consider (11) and replace it in (10), then the cv of fibre volume fraction yields: (cid:112) cv(V )≈ cv2(A )−2cv(A )cv(t)ρ +cv2(t) (12) f w w corr Equation (12) shows that the cv of RV fibre volume fractionV is approximately independent from µ . f Vf Owing to (12) at point µ = 0.5, evidently 3D Scatter plots (3) exhibits variation of the cv of the RV Vf fibrevolumefractionV asafunctionofthecoefficientofvariationsthicknesscv(t)andlocalarealdensity f cv(A ). w In Figure 3, it is possible to observe that when ρ increases from zero to one, a saddel is formed with corr ρ = 1, cv(A ) = cv(t) and then cv(V ) = 0. Furthermore, Figure 3 shows that as cv(A ) and cv(t) corr w f w approach each other too closely, cv(V ) moves from the top to the lowest level. f As to the PDF of V , section 2.1.1 establises experimentally that the random variable V has normal f f distribution. Although by calling the following cases we claim that this assertion in independent case is not theoretically artificial: 1. A and t are independent. It is straightforward that when a random variable t follows Cauchy w distribution with parameter γ then 1/t has also Cauchy distribution with parameter 1/γ. Further, according to our explanation above, we can easily check that the ratio of two independent normal random variables determines the Cauchy PDF. Hence as result if we consider random variables A w and t takes normal and Cauchy distributions respectively then V has normal PDF. f 2. A and t are dependent. This case is more complicated but practical. First note that if one is w interestedinbivariatenormaldistributionforpair(A ,t). Weaddressto[26]whichstudytheratio w of two correlated normal random variables. The author indeed has established that if A and t w be normally distributed random variables with means µ , variances σ2, (i = 1,2) and correlated i i coefficient ρ , then the exact PDF of V takes the form (1) in page 636 in [26]. For simplicity we corr f omit the form (1) here. However, in [27] we could observe that in this special case, i.e. normally distributed (A ,t) the PDF of V is not necessarily symmetric and normal. Therefore by virtue w f of author’s investigations, it is not clear yet that what kind of distributions should be considered for (A ,t) to prove analytically a normal PDF for V . Consequently, the solution which may come w f cross the mind is experimental results represented in next subsection. 7 (a) (b) (c) Figure 3: Coefficient of variation of fibre volume fraction cv(V ) as a function of coeffiecient of variation f of areal density,cv(A ), and thickness, cv(t), at µ =0.5.(a)ρ =0, (b)ρ =0.5, (c)ρ =1 w Vf corr corr corr 2.1.1 Experimental Table 1 shows the specifications of a 2×2 twill carbon woven fabric used for production of composite partsinthisstudy. TheFabricwascutinthewarpdirection. Compositepartswereproducedwithsame V using High Injection Pressure Resin Transfer Moulding(HIPRTM). Full production details have been f presented in [27]. In order to measure the h of each tow, series of samples were cut perpendicular to the fibre direction, the samples were polished manually in four steps (sandpaper grits 320, 400, 800, and 1000), and subse- quently photographed using an Olimpus PNG3 optical microscope equipped with a CCD camera. The analysis of each tow is carried out by image processing Matlab ™2015. Before importing the images into 8 Table 1: Material properties of fabrics used to prepare composite samples Style Weavepattern Arealweight(gm−2) Maximumwidth(cm) Fiberdiameter(µm) Numberoffilaments 280T 2×2twill 280 100 7 3000 the Matlab ™workspace, arears such as edges or borders which are not in the interest of tow geometry characterizations were cropped. In projective geometry every tow section is equivallent to an ellipse. Figure 4a illustrates how an ellipse is fitted to a tow to locate the center point based on [28] and [29]. Then the tow thickness (t) is equivalent to twice the length of the minor radius (b) (Figure 4b). A total of 200 optical images were collected and an ellipse is fitted to each tow. (a) (b) Figure 4: (a) Ellipse detection, (b)Tow geometry parameters To determine the A of each tow, the area of each tow (A ) in warp direction was approximated by w t the equivalent ellipse. Then, the number of filaments per tow (n ) were counted. Knowing the radius of t the fibre cross section(r), length of warp tow (l), and ρ , the A of each tow(w ) was computed from the f w t following equation (13): 9 n πr2ρ A = t f (13) w 2a TodeterminedistributionofV , the"R"statisticalsoftware[31]wasemployed. Foreachpair(t,A ), f w V was computed, afterward a histogram was generated . f 2.1.2 Results AscatterplotofA andtforeachtowisshowninFigure5. Thecoefficientofvariationforthedatawas w 0.72. An ellipse is fitted to the data. We can see that the ellipse extends between 100 and 200 (g/m2) on the 45 degree line. Hence A and t follow a bivariate normal distribution with mean components 168.5 w g/m2 and 102.3 µm, respectively. Therefore, our results suggest that A and t are dependent and can w be well approximated by the bivariate normal distribution. Figure 5: The relation of local average areal density with local average thickness. The bivariate normal ellipse (P=0.95) shows the data fit. ForeachpairofA andt,V wascomputed. Figure6showsthatthedistributionofthelocalaverage w f fibrevolumefractionfollowsabell-curvedistributions: thedistributionoffibrevolumefractionvaluesare well approximated with a normal distribution model. A large distribution of V was observed, ranging f from60%to95%. Thegraphicalanalysisindicatestheclosenessofthelocalaveragefibrevolumefraction 10