Probabilistic safety assessment for optimum nuclear power plant life management

368 Pages·2012·14.318 MB·English

by  Gennadij V. Arkadov, Alexander F. Getman, Andrei N. Rodionov

Probabilistic safety assessment for
optimum nuclear power
plant life management (PLiM)
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Woodhead Publishing Series in Energy: Number 49
Probabilistic safety
assessment for
optimum nuclear power
plant life management
(PLiM)
Theory and application of reliability
analysis methods for major power plant
components
Gennadij V. Arkadov, Alexander F. Getman and
Andrei N. Rodionov
Woodhead Publishing Limited
in association with
Cambridge International Science Publishing Limited
Oxford Cambridge Philadelphia New Delhi
Published by Woodhead Publishing Limited in association with Cambridge International Science
Publishing Limited
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First published 2012, Woodhead Publishing Limited and Cambridge International Science Publishing
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ISBN 978-0-85709-398-1 (print)
ISBN 978-0-85709-399-8 (online)
ISSN 2044-9364 Woodhead Publishing Series in Energy (print)
ISSN 2044-9372 Woodhead Publishing Series in Energy (online)
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Contents v
Contents
Woodhead Publishing Series in Energy xi
Preface xv
Part One: Probabilistic methods for predicting the
reliability of equipment

1 Terminology, concepts and definitions 1
1.1 Terminology, abbreviations, symbols 1
1.2 Basic terms and formulas of reliability theory,
probability theory and mathematical statistics 7
1.2.1 Reliability measures and information from
probability theory 7
1.2.2 The cumulative distribution function, probability
density function, failure rate 12
1.2.3 Relationship of reliability indicators 16
1.2.4 Mathematical models of reliability theory. Statistical
processing of test results 20
1.2.5 The normal distribution law 27
1.2.6 Binomial distribution (Bernoulli distribution) 34
1.3 Safety of nuclear power stations. Active and passive
safety features 34
1.4 Strength reliability and its connection with
nuclear safety and service life of NPP 37
1.5 Ageing of equipment and pipelines. Ageing considered
and not considered in design 40
1.6 Quantitative characteristics of reliability and their
implications for safety analysis and optimisation of
operating costs 42
1.7 Formal–statistical and physico–statistical approaches to
predicting the reliability of technical systems 49
2 Formal–statistical methods  50
2.1 The simplest model 50
vi Contents
2.2 Markov processes 53
2.3 The Monte Carlo method 57
2.3.1 The general characteristics of the Monte Carlo
method 57
2.3.2 The procedure for estimating the inaccuracy of the
Monte Carlo method 57
2.4 Risk theory 59
2.5 Accounting for ageing in formal mathematical
models 72
2.5.1 Data from operating experience of similar
equipment in other industries 81
2.5.2 Data from operating experience of NPP equipment 82
3 Physico–statistical approach: Procedures using
the defect-free model of structural material 87
3.1 Probability of failure under random static loading.
The method proposed by Rzhanitsyn 87
3.2 Probability of failure under cyclic loading causing
fatigue of constructional materials 92
4 Physico–statistical approach taking defects
into account and using binomial distribution 94
4.1 Key elements of the behaviour of structures with
crack-type defects 94
4.1.1 Critical and allowable defect sizes 94
4.1.2 Growth of the discontinuity under cyclic loading 95
4.1.3 Growth of discontinuities in static loading in a
corrosive environment 96
4.2 Methods of determining failure probability using
a binomial distribution 97
4.2.1 Methods of determining the probability of failure
on the basis of computer program MAVR-1.1 97
4.2.2 Development of methodology based on MAVR-1.1
program 99
4.2.3 Criterion values of failure probability, based on
the procedure described in section 4.2.2 116
5 Physico–statistical models based on
the residual defectiveness of structural
materials  118
5.1 Regularities of the formation, detection and omission
of defects during non-destructive testing 118
5.1.1 Formation of defects in the metal of structural
elements 118
Contents vii
5.1.2 Probabilistic relationships of inspection.
Detectability of inspection 123
5.1.3 Methods for studying the detectability of
non-destructive testing 124
5.1.4 Experimental study of detectability of non-
destructive testing using test samples 125
5.1.5 Results obtained in the PISC programme 139
5.1.6 Reasons for non-detection of defects 144
5.2 Residual defects as the most important
characteristic of the state of the structure.
Methods of determination 152
5.2.1 Mathematical approximation of the detection of
discontinuities, depending on their size 153
5.2.2 Quantitative assessment of residual defectiveness 154
5.2.3 Assessment of initial and residual defectiveness and
detectability of defects using inspection results 156
5.2.4 Possibility of predicting the results of repeated
inspection 157
5.2.5 Credibility and probabilistic components of residual
defectiveness 159
5.3 Probabilistic methods for assessing strength and service
life taking into account residual defectiveness in structural
elements 163
5.3.1 The general characteristic of methods 163
5.3.2 Method for determining the probability of failure,
the probability of leakage and the probability of
existence of hidden defects from the probabilistic
part of residual defectiveness 165
5.3.3 Quantitative relationship of the dependability
indicators, determined by the criteria of fracture,
leakage or defect detection in service with the
NDT results 177
5.3.4 Methods of determining gamma-percentile life 181
5.3.5 Influence on the probability of failure of statistical
nature of strength properties and loading
(generalised method) 183
5.3.6 Comparison of results of calculations using
procedures described in sections 5.3.5 and 3.1 184
5.3.7 Changes in strength properties of steels in operation
due to ageing 186
5.3.8 Initial data for calculating the probability of
destruction of equipment and pipelines of NPP 191
viii Contents
Part Two:  Practical application of probabilistic
methods for strength reliability
6 Probabilistic analysis of safety:
Increasing the reliability and safety of
nuclear power plant components 196
6.1 Probabilistic safety analysis model taking into account
the initiating event ‘a large break loss-of-coolant
accident’ 196
6.1.1 Understanding the model 196
6.1.2 The main results of core damage frequency analysis
of fusion 197
6.2 Taking into account in PSA models the first level of ageing
effects of systems and equipment in nuclear power plant 200
6.2.1 The set of the input data 200
6.2.2 Effect of ageing on core damage frequency (CDF) 203
6.3 Method of bringing the product to the desired level of
quality, reliability and safety security 208
6.4 Improving the safety of main circulation pipelines of
nuclear power plant with first generation VVER-440
reactors 214
7 Optimisation of non-destructive testing 216
7.1 General 216
7.2 Overview of approaches to optimising ISI, based
on information about risks: Semiquantitative approach 218
7.3 Optimisation of the risk-based oriented in-service
inspection at the Ignalinsk nuclear power plant 230
7.4 Quantitative approach to optimisation of ISI 236
7.4.1 Optimisation of ISI based on the characteristics of
probability of failure and a systemic approach 236
7.4.2 Cost-optimum norms of defects in service
(deterministic approach) 237
7.4.3 Cost-optimum time interval between inspections
(deterministic approach) 238
7.4.4 The optimum time between the inspections
(probabilistic approach) 239
7.4.5 ISI optimum frequency for VVER RPV 242
7.4.6 ISI optimum frequency of the pressuriser 243
7.4.7 Optimisation norms for defects during operation
(probabilistic approach) 245
7.4.8 Optimisation of the volume of inspection in various
stages of the life cycle of nuclear power plant life
cycle (factory inspection, installation and
Contents ix
commissioning, operation). Superinspection 248
7.4.9 Optimum combination of inspection methods 251
8 Optimisation of hydraulic tests, technical
certification and planned–preventative
maintenance  254
8.1 Method for determination of the optimum pressure
of hydraulic stress tests to ensure reliability and
operational safety 254
8.2 Optimisation of the frequency of hydraulic tests 262
8.3 Optimisation of the technical inspection and scheduled
preventive maintenance 266
8.3.1 Optimisation of scheduled–preventive maintenance 266
8.3.2 Optimisation of the frequency and composition of
works on technical inspection 267
9 Using probabilistic methods for solving
the problem of ensuring leak tightness of
heat exchanger tubes of nuclear power plant
steam generators  270
9.1 Ensuring the leak tightness of tubes of vertical and
horizontal steam generators 270
9.2 Application of the Monte Carlo method to the problem
of ensuring the integrity of HETs of VSG 284
9.3 Application of a probabilistic method based on two-
parameter distribution 297
9.4 Application of the generalised method of probabilistic
analysis and systematic methodology for analysing and
ensuring integrity of steam generator heat exchanger tubes
in nuclear power plants with VVER-1000 and VVER-440
reactors 306
9.5 Guidance Document RD EO-0552-2004 ‘Guidelines
on the application of system methodology to ensure
the integrity of steam generator heat exchanger tubes
of NPP with VVER-440 and VVER-1000 reactors’ 319
9.6 Conclusions 323
Appendix 1 325
Appendix 2 326
Appendix 3 331
References 335
Index 343