Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management ’96: ESREL’96 — PSAM-III June 24–28 1996, Crete, Greece Volume 1 PDF
Preview Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management ’96: ESREL’96 — PSAM-III June 24–28 1996, Crete, Greece Volume 1
Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management ESREL'96 PSAM-III Springer-Verlag London Ltd. Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management '96 ESREL'96 - PSAM-III June 24-281996, (rete, Greece Volume 1 Edited by Carlo Cacciabue and Ioannis A. Papazoglou , Springer P. Carlo Cacciabue, PhD IA PSAM, Joint Research Centre, The European Commission Institute for Systems, Informatics and Safety, 1-21020 ISPRA (Va), ltaIy loannis A. PapazogIou, PhD IA PSAM, NCSR 'Demokritos' PO Box 60228, GR-15310 Aghin Paraskevi, Greece ISBN 978-1-4471-3411-4 ISBN 978-1-4471-3409-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-3409-1 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Probabilistic safety assessment and management '96 : ESREL '96 - PSAM - III l.Risk assessment 2.Risk management 3.Probabilities I.Cacciabue, Petro CarI o II.Papazoglou, loannis A. 363.1'00151923 Library ofCongress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library ofCongress Apari from any fair deal ing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms oflicences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers. © Springer Springer-Verlag London 1996 Originally published by Springer-Verlag London Limited in 1996 Softcover reprint of the hardcover lst edition 1996 The use of registered names, trademarks etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. CONFERENCE ORGANISED By ESRA IAPSAM European Safety and International Association Reliability Association for Probabilistic Safety Analysis and Management Sponsored By European Commission Joint Research Centre EC - JRC National Center for Scientific Research "DEMOKRITOS" European Commission EC - DG-XII/D European Safety, Reliability and Data Association (ESReDA) Greek Atomic Energy Commission (GAEC) Scandinavian Reliability Engineers Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) CONFERENCE ORGANISATION Ioannis A. Papazoglou, General Programme Chair Senior Advisory Board Volta G., JRC, EU, Chairman Ale B. J. M., RIVM, NL Apostolakis G., MIT, USA Bertrand Y., ISDF, F Garrick B. J., PLG Inc., USA Hsia D. Y., INER Rep. ofChina McQuaid J., Health and Safety Executive, UK Sato K., Nuclear Safety Commission, J Organising Committee Papazoglou I. A., N.C.S.R. "Demokritos", GR Cacciabue P. c., European Commission, JRC, EU Karvounakis G., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR Cojazzi G., European Commission, JRC, EU Parisi P., European Commission, JRC, EU Nivolianitou Z., N.C.S.R. "Demokritos", GR Anaziris 0., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR Bonanos G., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR Conference Secretariat Cicognani c., European Commission, JRC, EU Finokalioti G., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR Magkia S., N.C.S.R." Demokritos", GR TECIINICAL PROGRAMME COMMITTEE P. Carlo Cacciabue, Technical Programme Chair G. Cojazzi, Associated Chair, Technical Programme Aldemir, T. USA Furuta, T. J MUlvihill, R. USA Ancelin, C. F Gertman, O. I. USA Murphy, JA USA Arsenis, S. EU Gheorghe, A. V. CH Okrent, O. USA Arueti, S. 11 Goossens, L. H. J. NL Oliveira, L. F. BR Bacivarov, I. RO Greenfield, M. A. USA Ortiz, N. USA Balfanz, H.P. 0 Guarro, S. USA Orvis, O. USA Bari, R. USA Haim,M. 11 Papazoglou, I.A. GR Bianchi,S. F Harvey, O. UK Park, C. K. ROK Bickel, J. H. USA Helton, J. C. USA Parry, GW. USA Bley, O. USA Henneke, O. W. USA Pate-Cornell, M. E. USA Bloomfield, R.E. UK Hessel, P. CON Petersen, K. E. OK Bonano, E. J. USA Hirschberg, S. CH Poucet, A. USA Brooks, O. G. USA Ho, V. USA Prassinos, P. USA Brown, M. L UK Hollnagel, E. N Preyssl, C. NL Budnitz, R. J. USA Ho1l6, E. H Procaccia, H. F Cacciabue, P. C. EU Homsy, R. V. USA Raffoux, J.F. F Camarinopoulos, L. GR Hurst, N. UK Ravindra, M. K. USA Carlsson, L. S llberg, O. 11 Ravishankar, T.J. CON Cassidy, K. UK Johnson, O. H. USA Sato, Y. J Cho, N.Z. ROK Kafka, P. 0 Schueller, G.1. A Cojazzi, G. EU Kaiser, G. O. USA Schuler, J.C.H. NL Cooke, R. M. NL Karydas, O. M. USA Siu, N. O. USA Cox, R. A. UK Kastenberg, W. E. USA Soares, C.G. P Cummings, G. E. USA Kazarians, M. USA Spitzer, C. 0 Oahlgren, K. S Kelly,O.L. USA Spray, S.O. USA Oe Gelder, P. B Kelly, G.N. B Stamatelatos, M. USA Oevooght, J. B Kondo, S. J Svenson, O. S Outuit, Y. F Laprie, J.C. F Thompson, B. UK Oykes, A. A. USA Lederman, L. A Versteeg, M. F. NL Ferrante, M. I Lydersen, S. N Vestrucci, I. P. I Fischer, S. R. USA Maharik, M. 11 Virolainen, R. K. SF Fragola, J. R. USA Mancini, G. EU Wicks, P. B Frangopol, O. USA Marseguerra, M. I Wieringa, PA NL Frank, M. V. USA Matsuoka, T. J Wilson, Dan S Fthenakis, V. USA Modarres, M. USA Wingender, H. J. 0 Fujita, Y. J Moore, o. A. USA Wreathall, J. W. SA Furuta, K. J Mosleh, A. USA ESREL' 96 PSAMID PREFACE BACKGROUND HISTORY This Conference represents the confluence of two successful traditions: the annual ESREL Conferences which themselves stern from a European initiative merging several national conferences into a Pan-European safety and reliability event, and the PSAM International Conferences which have provided a forum for the presentation of the latest developments In methodology and application ofprobabilistic methods in various industries. ESREL'96 follows ESREL'90 in Brest, France, ESREL'91 in London UK, ESREL'92 in Copenhagen, Denmark, ESREL'93 in Munich, Germany, ESREL'94 in La Baule, France, and ESREL'95 in Bournemouth, UK PSAM III follows PSAM I in 1990 in Los Angeles and PSAM 11 in San Diego both in the USA. By moving outside the USA PSAM III establishes its international character not only in terms of participants' origin but also in terms ofConference Venue. The objective of the ESREL series of conferences is to promote communication and integration of reliability and safety experts across Europe. PSAM's objectives include promotion of relevant experience among various industries. This joint ESREL - PSAM conference aims at enhancing communication, sharing of experience and integration of approaches not only among various industries but at a truly world wide basis by bringing together leading experts from all over the world. ESREL '96 - PSAM III has been co-organised by the European Safety and Reliability Association (ES RA) and the International Association for Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (IPSAM). Sponsoring by the Commission ofthe European Union (Joint Research Centre and DG-XII/D Environment), and the Center for Scientific Research "DEMOKRITOS" is particularly appreciated and gratefully acknowledged along with that of the other sponsoring organisations. THECONFERENCETHEME " We CZ\tIJen1AH in our persons, tAke our ~er1s10H on poUr, An~ submit tIJem to proper ~1sruss1on. 7IJe worst tIJ1ns 1s to rusIJ 1nto Artion before tIJe ronse'luenres hAye been properl, ~ebAted. CZ\nd tIJ1s 1s Another point wIJere we d1ffer from otIJer people. We Are rApAble At the SAme time of tllMng nslu; And eSNmllNng tIJem before IJAnd. OtIJers Are brAve out of isnorAnre7 And wIJen tIJe, stop to tIJink, tIJe, besin to feAr. ~ut tIJe mAn wIJo rAn most nul, be Arrounted brAve is IJe wIJo best knows tIJe meAn1ns of wIJAt is sweet in life, And WIJAt is terrible, And IJe tIJen soes out undeterred to meet WIJAt 1s to rome". from Pericle's Funeral Oration in Thucydides' " History ofthe Peloponnesian War" (started in 431 B. C.) More than 2.400 years ago Pericles offered, as one of the reasons for the superiority of the Athenian political system, their capacity of estimating risks and evaluating them before taking decisions. In the last 30 years, contemporary scientists have been trying to provide modern societies with a systematic, self consistent and coherent framework for making decisions, concerning at least one dass of risks, those stemming from modern technological applications. Parts of this framework, are supported by methods and techniques developed in the scientific areas, known as Reliability Av ailability Maintainability (RAM) analysis of systems (recently referred to also as Dependability), Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA), andlor Quantified Risk Assessment. Most of the effort in the last three decades has been spent in trying to develop techniques for assessing the dependability of technological systems, and assessing or estimating the levels of safety and associated risks. A wide spectrum of Engineering, Physical and Economic Sciences are involved in this assessment effort. We believe that the time is ripe for putting these assessment methods at work, and use the results in relevant decisions. This is what we collectively call Risk Management. Decision making and more specifically risk management and risk based regulation are the main themes of this Conference. A large dass of decisions conceming technology, is being made through various forms of regulations. Creating an appropriate regulatory framework making proper use of the capabilities of RAMs and QRA techniques is, in our belief, the challenge facing nowadays the reliability and probabilistic safety analysis fields. Use and testing of existing probabilistic methods, will also indicate the areas in need of further research and development. This Conference has widely covered and discussed both weIl established practices and open issues in the domain of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and where more and new research is needed. Can we now argue that the lesson of Perides has been leamed and the wisdom ofthe Athenians has been spread? We Iike to think that it has started to do so, although modem technology always presents us with new challenges and open questions demanding the continuous and passionate work of safety analysts and researchers. PROCEEDINGS ORGANISA TION Three hundred and sixty three (363) papers, are induded in these Proceedings covering a wide spectrum of topics in the areas of System Dependability and Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, and authored by scientists originating from 30 different countries. One of the particular features in this Conference Organisation pioneered by the PSAM series, is that members of the Technical Programme Committee (TPC), are responsible for soliciting papers for the Conference and organising them into Sessions. All papers are then reviewed by the TPC and arranged in new sessions according to subject and final availability. In order to facilitate Conference attendance and the following of presentations, the papers in the Proceedings are arranged according to the presentation sequence, which of course is seriously affected by space and time constraints. We have organised the papers in five major thematic categories. To facilitate the reader to locate papers in specific thematic areas, the following table is provided:
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