Presidential elections strategies and structures of American politics PDF
Preview Presidential elections strategies and structures of American politics
Presidential Elections PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Strategies and Structures of American Politics FOURTEENTH EDITION Nelson W. Polsby, Aaron Wildavsky, Steven E. Schier, and David A. Hopkins ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Plymouth, UK Published by Rowman & Littlefield 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706 www.rowman.com 10 Thornbury Road, Plymouth PL6 7PP, United Kingdom Copyright © 2016 by The Polsby Family Trust, Steven E. Schier, David A. Hopkins All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission from the publisher, except by a reviewer who may quote passages in a review. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Information Available Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Polsby, Nelson W. Presidential elections : strategies and structures of American politics / Nelson W. Polsby, Aaron Wildavsky, Steven E. Schier, and David A. Hopkins. — Fourteenth edition. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4422-5365-0 (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-1-4422-5367-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-1-4422-5366-7 (electronic) 1. Presidents—United States—Election. I. Wildavsky, Aaron B. II. Schier, Steven E. III. Hopkins, David A. IV. Title. JK528.P63 2016 324.973—dc23 ™ The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992. Printed in the United States of America By Nelson A. Polsby and Aaron Wildavsky— To our grandchildren Benjamin Polsby Stern Eva Miriam Wildavsky Aaron Alexander Wildavsky Edward Polsby Stern Saul Abraham Wildavsky By Steven E. Schier— To my family Mary, Anna and Teresa Schier By David A. Hopkins— To my family and friends CONTENTS | vii Contents Tables, Figures, and Boxes xi Preface xiii Part I THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT 1 1 VOTERS 3 Why People Don’t Vote 3 Why People Do Vote: A Theory of Social Connectedness 8 Party Identification as Social Identity 10 Parties as Aggregates of Loyal Voters 11 Ideologies, Candidates, and Issues in the Minds of Voters 15 Changes in Party Identification: Social Habit versus Contemporary Evaluation 19 A Central Strategic Problem: The Attentiveness of Voters 22 2 GROUPS 25 The Presidential Vote as an Aggregation of Interest Groups 25 Variations among Interest Groups 31 “Special” Interests, Campaign Spending, and Public Interest Groups 36 Political Parties as Organizations 41 Third Parties 46 vii viii | CONTENTS 3 RULES AND RESOURCES 49 Rules: The Electoral College 49 Thinking about Resources 50 Resources: Money 50 The Beverly Hills Primary 51 Campaign Finance in Presidential Primaries 55 Raising and Spending Money in the General Election 57 Does Money Buy Elections? 58 Campaign Finance Reform 64 Resources: Control over Information 66 Newspapers 68 Television 72 The Internet and Other New Media 76 Incumbency as a Resource: The Presidency 79 Incumbency as a Liability: The Vice Presidency 81 The Balance of Resources 84 Part II SEQUENCES 85 4 THE NOMINATION PROCESS 87 Before the Primaries 89 Iowa and New Hampshire: First in the Nation 94 1972 94 1976 95 1984 96 1992 96 2004 97 2008 98 2012 100 What Do These Historical Vignettes Teach? 101 State Primaries 102 State Caucuses 114 Superdelegates 116 The National Party Conventions 118 Party Delegates at the Conventions 119 CONTENTS | ix The Convention as Advertising 122 The Vice Presidential Nominee 126 The Future of National Conventions 131 5 THE CAMPAIGN 135 The Well-Traveled Candidates 136 Persuading Voters 140 Economic Issues 141 Foreign Issues 143 Social Issues 145 Presentation of Self 146 Negative Campaigning 150 Getting Good Press 153 Campaign Professionals 156 Policy Advisers 160 Polling 163 Focus Groups 168 Television Advertising 170 New Media 173 Televised Debates 174 Getting Out the Vote 180 Campaign Blunders 182 Forecasting the Outcome 188 Counting the Vote 194 Part III ISSUES 199 6 APPRAISALS 201 Reform upon Reform 201 The Political Theory of Policy Government 203 Reform by Means of Participatory Democracy 209 Some Specific Reforms 213 The Nomination Process 213 The Decline of the National Convention 216 The Electoral College 219 Party Platforms and Party Differences 226
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