presentation - Seecore.org

58 Pages·2012·3.26 MB·English

NINASTTIOITNUATL I NNSATTITIUOTNEAOL F A DPEPSL I E DSSCCIEIENNCCEES( I NASPAP)L IOQFUSÉTERSA S DBEO U RSGTRASBOURG
E A
N GG I N E E R SS + R CC H I T E CC T SS
RReesseeaarrcchhiinngg FFuuttuurree
methodologgyy for longg‐term 
technological forecast
Dmitry KUCHARAVY,  dmitry.kucharavy@insa‐strasbourg.fr
LICIA / LGECO ‐ Design Engineering Laboratory [http://lgeco.insa‐strasbourg.fr/]
IINNSSAA SSttrraassbboouurrgg  [[hhttttpp::////wwwwww..iinnssaa‐ssttrraassbboouurrgg..ffrr//eenn// ]]
24 bd de la Victoire, 67084 STRASBOURG, France
May, 2010 – February 2012
outline
Why do we need a reliable forecast? 
1.
Why is it difficult to forecast? 
2.
What are the existing approaches?
3.
What is suggested? 
4.
HHow tto iimprove relliiabbiilliitty off fforecastt??
5.
KUCHARAVYDmitry (INSAStrasbourg ) Researching Future 26/02/2012 08:26 1
…The righter we do the wrong thing, 
the wrongger we become… 
Russel Ackoff (2003)
Whyy do we need 
a reliable forecast?
Why do we need forecast?  
• We delay to recognize and to be agree about 
pprroobblleemmss aanndd tthhrreeaattss.
• We delayy to solve pproblems and to be aggree about 
solutions.
• We delay to implement a potential solution and 
rreeccooggnniizzee iittss lliimmiittaattiioonnss. 
KUCHARAVYDmitry (INSAStrasbourg ) Researching Future 26/02/2012 08:26 4
earth and human 
(socio‐technical systems and environment)
source: LIVING PLANET REPORT 2008 (http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/)
KUCHARAVYDmitry (INSAStrasbourg ) Researching Future 26/02/2012 08:26 5
ecological debtor and creditor countries (1961)
source: LIVING PLANET REPORT 2008 (http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/)
KUCHARAVYDmitry (INSAStrasbourg ) Researching Future 26/02/2012 08:26 6
ecological debtor and creditor countries (2005)
source: LIVING PLANET REPORT 2008 (http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/)
KUCHARAVYDmitry (INSAStrasbourg ) Researching Future 26/02/2012 08:26 7
reliable forecast vs. foretelling 
RR11-:: ddiiffffiiccuulltt ttoo oobbttaaiinn;;
difficult to disseminate (to convince stakeholders)
V: available R2+: time to develop adequate solutions for
ccoommiinngg cchhaannggeess;; ppoossssiibbiilliittyy ttoo ssoollvvee pprroobblleemmss;;
no emergency situation
Reliable forecast Desired result
R1+: Easy to sell any ideas as forecast;
Easy to disseminate commonsense concepts
Λ: is not available
R2-: Lack of time and resources to respond for coming
changes; impossible to solve problems;
regular emergency situations ask inventive solutions
KUCHARAVYDmitry (INSAStrasbourg ) Researching Future 26/02/2012 08:26 8
why do we need to know about future?
R1-: Way to get knowledge should be changed
(cognitive method problem)
V: know about future
RR22+:: CCoonnssiisstteennccyy wwiitthh cchhaannggeess iinn ssuuppeerr-ssyysstteemm;;
Possible problems are dissolved in advance
Human (e.g. decision maker) Desired result
R1+: No changes for getting knowledge
(cognitive method is the same)
Λ: doesn’t know
aabboouutt ffuuttuurree
R2-: Regular conflicts with super-systems;
A lot of problems to be solved
KUCHARAVYDmitry (INSAStrasbourg ) Researching Future 26/02/2012 08:26 9