Present dangers : crisis and opportunity in American foreign and defense policy

381 Pages·2000·2.33 MB·English

by  Kagan

Present Dangers

Copyright © 2000 by Robert Kagan and William Kristol All rights reserved. No part of this publication
may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Encounter
Books, 900 Broadway, Suite 601, New York, New York 10003.
First paperback edition published in 2000 by Encounter Books, an activity of Encounter for Culture and
Education, Inc., a nonprofit tax exempt corporation.
Encounter Books website address: www.encounterbooks.com
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992 (R 1997)
(Permanence of Paper).
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kagan, Robert.
Present dangers : crisis and opportunity in American foreign and defense policy.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographic references and index.
ISBN: 978-1-89355-416-0
1. United State—Foreign relations—1989—Philosophy. 2. United States—Military policy—
Philosophy. I. Kristol, William. II. Title.
E840.K316 2000
327.7—dc21
00-034728
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
Preface
I. An Overview
WILLIAM KRISTOL AND ROBERT KAGAN
Introduction: National Interest and Global Responsibility
JAMES W. CEASAR
The Great Divide: American Internationalism and its Opponents
II. The Mounting Threat
ROSS H. MUNRO
China: The Challenge of a Rising Power
PETER W. RODMAN
Russia: The Challenge of a Failing Power
RICHARD N. PERLE
Iraq: Saddam Unbound
REUEL MARC GERECHT
Iran: Fundamentalism and Reform
NICHOLAS EBERSTADT
North Korea: Beyond Appeasement
III. Allies and Military Assets
JEFFREY GEDMIN
Europe and NATO: Saving the Alliance
AARON L. FRIEDBERG
Asian Allies: True Strategic Partners
ELLIOTT ABRAMS
Israel and the “Peace Process”
FREDERICK W. KAGAN
The Decline of America’s Armed Forces
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER
Weapons Proliferation and Missile Defense: The Strategic Case
IV. American Leadership: Strength and Principle
WILLIAM J. BENNETT
Morality, Character and American Foreign Policy
PAUL WOLFOWITZ
Statesmanship in the New Century
DONALD KAGAN
Strength and Will: A Historical Perspective
About the Authors
Notes
Index
Preface
This book is an outgrowth of an article we published in Foreign Affairs in
1996, “Toward a Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy.” We warned there of the
growing threats to the American peace established at the end of the Cold War,
and called for a foreign policy of “benevolent hegemony” as a way of securing
that peace and advancing American interests and principles around the world.
The article sparked controversy in the United States and abroad, and the question
of American hegemony has become a principal focus of the foreign policy
debate.
Events of recent years have given us no reason to change our fundamental
view either of the emerging dangers or of the prescriptions for meeting these
dangers. If anything, the trend of the past few years has proven more troubling
than we anticipated. The emergence of China as a strong, determined, and
potentially hostile power; the troubling direction of political developments in
Russia; the continuing threat posed by aggressive dictatorships in Iraq, Serbia,
and North Korea; the increasingly alarming decline in American military
capabilities—all these and more suggest that the coming years may be critical in
determining the fate of international peace and of the American hegemony on
which that peace depends. The aim of this collection of essays is to provide a
survey of these many dangers and to offer recommendations to American policy-
makers on how to meet and overcome the challenges we face in the world.
As the reader will see, the authors in this book include some of America’s
leading foreign policy thinkers and practitioners of the past two decades. Paul
Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, William Schneider, Elliott Abrams, and Peter
Rodman have served at the highest levels of government. William Bennett,
former secretary of education and drug czar, has been a leading commentator on
the role of morality in American society and politics. Donald Kagan, Aaron
Friedberg, and Nicholas Eberstadt are leading authorities in their respective
academic fields. It is fair to say that all are conservative in their outlook. But
what distinguishes them is that they are all conservative internationalists, with a
strong commitment to vigorous American global leadership, to American power,
and to the advancement of American democratic and free-market principles
abroad. In this sense, they are the true heirs to a tradition in American foreign
policy that runs at least from Theodore Roosevelt through Ronald Reagan.
The topics covered in these essays range across several broad themes. In our
introductory essay, we argue that the world has, indeed, become a more perilous
place after the squandered decade of the 1990s and that the “present danger” lies
in America’s hesitancy in maintaining its global hegemony against the many
emerging challenges. James Ceasar then takes a broad look at the foreign policy
debates of the past decade, and especially the debates among conservatives,
offering an important analysis of what modern conservative internationalism is
and is not.
Part Two deals with the main threats to American peace in the coming
decade. First, Ross Munro and Peter Rodman address the challenges likely to be
posed by two world powers, China and Russia. Munro contends that China is
fast emerging as the greatest threat to American interests and that a serious
conflict with China may come sooner than many would like to believe. Rodman
argues that Russian leaders are moving toward a new realism in their foreign
policy, one that offers both dangers and opportunities for the United States. The
next three chapters consider the problem of “rogue states.” Richard Perle warns
that Saddam Hussein is on the verge of breaking free from the international
constraints imposed on him at the end of the Gulf War, and that unless a
concerted effort is made to remove him from power he will soon acquire
weapons of mass destruction and fundamentally alter the strategic balance in the
Middle East. Reuel Marc Gerecht cautions that the Iranian regime is not
necessarily moving in a “moderate” direction, as many assume, and will
continue to pose serious problems as a supporter of terrorism, a destabilizing
influence in the Middle East, and a potential nuclear power. Nicholas Eberstadt
argues that North Korea remains very dangerous and will remain so until the
present regime in Pyongyang falls.
Part Three looks at America’s resources for meeting these challenges: its
allies and its military assets. Jeffrey Gedmin and Aaron Friedberg both discuss
the question of America’s alliances with the world’s other great powers, in
Europe and East Asia, arguing that these alliances, cornerstones of American
leadership, have fallen into disrepair. Elliott Abrams describes the faulty logic
that has driven American policy toward the Middle East for more than a decade,
warning that the security of Israel, Turkey, and American friends in the Arab
world may be jeopardized unless the United States shifts its focus toward
strengthening friends and consolidating American influence in the region. The
next two chapters assess the growing deficiencies in America’s military
capabilities as global threats multiply. Frederick Kagan provides an account of
the reduction in the armed forces since the Gulf War and demonstrates that cuts
in the defense budget have been driven not by a coherent strategy but by the
political need to offer Americans a post–Cold War “peace dividend.” William
Schneider describes the breakdown of American efforts to prevent the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles, as well as
the disastrous inadequacy of American programs for building a missile defense
system that can protect the United States, its troops stationed abroad, and its
allies.
Part Four examines some broader issues of American foreign policy from a
historical perspective. William Bennett makes a carefully reasoned defense of an
American foreign policy based on principle, tracing the role of American
principles in foreign policy from the Founding Fathers to the present. Paul
Wolfowitz discusses the lost art of statesmanship and offers a long-time
practitioner’s perspective on the challenges to American foreign policy today.
Donald Kagan stresses the vital importance of national will in the successful
deterrence of war, offering examples of both success and failure from the past
four centuries of European and American history.
In choosing these authors, we sought to find individuals who shared a
common perspective on America’s role in the world. We did not, however, insist
on uniformity when it came to policy prescriptions. The reader may note that in
the case of China, for instance, there is not complete agreement among Messrs.
Wolfowitz, Friedman, and Munro on the exact policies to be pursued on such
matters as Taiwan or trade. Rather than viewing this as a problem, we think it is
healthy. Within the broad strategy of conservative internationalism there will be
more than one set of tactics.
We would also note that there are omissions in this collection. There is no
essay on international economics, for instance, and no essay on Latin America,
even though both issues are vitally important. We trust others will fill in the gaps
we have left.
Finally, we wish to express our gratitude to a handful of people who made
this book possible. Peter Collier at Encounter Books was a patient and steady