Preparing for the Next Cyber Revolution: How Our World Will Be Radically Transformed—Again!

236 Pages·2019·3.73 MB·English

by  Joseph N. Pelton

Joseph N. Pelton
Preparing for
the Next Cyber
Revolution
How Our World Will Be
Radically Transformed
– Again!
Preparing for the Next Cyber Revolution
Joseph N. Pelton
Preparing for the Next Cyber
Revolution
How Our World Will Be Radically
Transformed – Again!
Joseph N. Pelton
International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety
Arlington, VA, USA
ISBN 978-3-030-02136-8 ISBN 978-3-030-02137-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02137-5
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018961701
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Acknowledgments
This is a book that took a number of years to develop and evolve into its current
form. Many people helped me to think about how the future is unfolding in today’s
world in such a chaotic and sometimes economic and politically unpredictable way.
This book is not about small themes and issues. Indeed it is about fundamental
issues such as: Can “democratic” values and systems survive the Internet? Can
today’s forms of capitalism and employment survive “super automation”? These
issues demand a great thought and consideration by politicians, economists, tech-
nologists, and indeed everyone in society that values a stable, peaceful, and prosper-
ous world that can escape the scourges of war and suppression of democratic
values.
Colleagues and friends such as Professor Ram Jakhu of Canada, Dr. Scott Madry
of North Carolina, and Dr. Peter Martinez of South Africa, among others have
helped to clarify my thinking on the difficult and challenging topics addressed in
this book. My friend, frequent coauthor, and superb editor Peter Marshall helped
with not only the research, final editing, and structure of this book but also helped
to dissect the critical thinking. Others have helped to inspire key thoughts in this
book through their seminal writings. In this respect, I would particularly like to
thank environmentalist Timothy Morton whose concept of “hyper objects” is a sig-
nificant idea. It helps to explain why coping with climate change, technological
innovation, and super automation is such a difficult problem to cope with in modern
society. With sincerest thanks to all.
Arlington, VA, USA Joseph N. Pelton
v
Contents
1 What Is the Cyber Revolution? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
An Epochal Shift in Human History? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
What Has Changed to Create the Cyber Revolution
That Is Now Unfolding? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Why Are These Large-Scale Future Threats Suddenly So Urgent? . . . . . 7
Entering the Fourth Wave Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
A Quick Tour Guide of the Cyber Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
New Directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2 We Need Better Planet Management Skills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
The Three Hyper-Objects That Imperil Our Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Taking on the Hyper-Object Challenges to Save the Human Race . . . . . . 23
Focusing in on the Major Challenges We Face . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Over Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Converting to a Fourth Wave Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
How to Proceed? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
So What About the Fourth Wave? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Twenty-First Century Perils that Need to Be Closely Monitored . . . . . . . 37
3 The Prime Drivers of Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Exploring the Prime Drivers of Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
The Exciting New ‘Smart Industries’ That Can Help Save Our Planet . . 45
Mega-Deaths or Giga-Deaths? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Demographics Is One of the Key Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Examining All Six Major Drivers and Their Implications
for the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Population Growth and Super-Urbanization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Climate Change and Unsustainable Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Societal and Political Values of Un-moderated Economic Expansion . . . 57
Growth Versus Survival . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
vii
viii Contents
Super-Automation and Technological Unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Unreformed Health Care and Educational Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Life in a Broadband Cybernetic World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Coping with the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4 Smart Cities, Megacities and Meta-Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
The Coming Emphasis on Smart City Technology and Systems . . . . . . . 68
How Urban Life and Especially Smart Cities Will Be Transformed . . . . 70
Transportation in the Smart City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Environmental Systems and Climate Change Concerns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Telecommunications and IT Systems and Government Services . . . . . . . 73
Utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Education and Health Care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Smart Urban Planning Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Security, Resiliency, Cybersecurity and First Responders . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
5 Climate Change and Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Initiatives for Coping with Climate Change and Implementing
Sustainable Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Moderating Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Phase Out of Carbon-Based Energy Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
A New Technology Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Strategies for Developed and Developing Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
6 L ife in a Cybernetic World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Welcome to the Cybernetic Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
A Re-imagined World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
The Automated World and Civil Liberties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Are We Destined to Live the World of Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.’s
Player Piano? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
What Is the Real Threat of Smart Machines That Think Like Humans? . 99
Are Universal Basic Income (U.B.I.) Payments Coming? . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Can the U. N. Sustainable Development Goals Change the World? . . . . . 102
7 W here Is Technology Leading Us: The Good, the Bad,
and the Ugly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Alternatives to Progressive Knowledge as Destined
by Technological Man . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Coping with Disruptive but Potentially Breakthrough Technologies
and Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
What Super-Automation Will Offer to an Overcrowded
and Fast- Paced World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Contents ix
Coping with Cyberattacks and Techno-Terrorists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Co-existence with Smart Robotics and the Singularity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
The Re-invention of Public Policy for the Fourth Wave Economy . . . . . . 114
Empathy, Morality and Ethics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
8 Healthcare and Educational Systems in the Age
of the Cyber Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Spending Choices for Social Services Versus National Defense
and Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
The Coming Revolution in Smart Health Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
The Future of Educational and Training Systems in Age
of the Cyber Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
9 Political and Economic Reform in the Fourth Wave . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Modern Capitalism: Its Strengths and Weaknesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Motivations for Re-inventing and Restructuring Capitalism . . . . . . . . . . 141
Capitalism, Technological Unemployment and Modern
Cultural Clashes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
An Agenda of Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
10 Brave New World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Critical Choices to Cope with the Coming Cyber Revolution . . . . . . . . . 158
The Cyber Revolution and Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
The Cyber Revolution, Family Planning and Overpopulation . . . . . . . . . 160
The Cyber Revolution, Super-Automation, and Sustainability
Within the Fourth Wave Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
The Cyber Revolution and the Smart City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
The Cyber Revolution and Education, Training and Healthcare . . . . . . . 164
Economic and Political Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Next Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Appendix 1: The U. N. Sustainable Development Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Appendix 2: Key Issues of the European General Data Protection
Regulation (GDPR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Appendix 3: U. S. Consumer Privacy Bill of Rights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
About the Author
Joseph  N.  Pelton Ph.D., is the former Dean and

Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the International
Space University. He also is the founder of the Arthur
C. Clarke Foundation and the founding president of the
Society of Satellite Professionals International – now
known as the Space and Satellite Professionals
International (SSPI). Dr. Pelton currently serves on the
Executive Board of the International Association for
the Advancement of Space Safety. He is the Director
Emeritus of the Space and Advanced Communications
Research Institute (SACRI) at George Washington
University where he also served as director of the
accelerated Master’s program in telecommunications
and computers from 1998 to 2004. Previously he
headed the Interdisciplinary Telecommunications
Program at the University of Colorado Boulder. Dr.
Pelton has also served as president of the International
Space Safety Foundation and president of the Global
Legal Information Network (GLIN). Earlier in his
career, he held a number of executive and management
positions at COMSAT and INTELSAT, the global sat-
ellite organization where he was Director of Strategic
Policy.
Dr. Pelton has been a speaker on national media in
the United States (PBS NewsHour, Public Radio’s All
Things Considered, ABC, and CBS) and internation-
ally on BBC, CBC, and France 3. He has spoken before
Congress, the United Nations, and delivered talks in
over 40 countries around the world. His honors include
the Sir Arthur Clarke, International Achievement
Award of the British Interplanetary Society, the Arthur
xi
xii About the Author
C.  Clarke Foundation Award, the ICA Educator’s
Award, the ISCe Excellence in Education Award, and
being elected to the International Academy of
Astronautics. Most recently, in 2017, he won the Da
Vinci Award of the International Association for the
Advancement of Space Safety and the Guardian Award
of the Lifeboat Foundation.
Dr. Pelton is a member of the SSPI Hall of Fame,
Fellow of the IAASS, and Associate Fellow of the
AIAA. Pelton is a widely published author with some
50 books written, co-authored or co-edited. His Global
Talk won the Eugene Emme Literature Award of the
International Astronautics Association and was nomi-
nated for a Pulitzer Prize. His most recent books
include The New Gold Rush: The Riches of Space
Beckon!, Global Space Governance: An International
Study, and the second edition of The Handbook of
Satellite Applications.
As director of Project SHARE, while Director of
Strategic Policy for INTELSAT, he played a key role in
the launching of the Chinese National TV University
that now is the world’s largest tele-education program.
He received his degrees from the University of Tulsa,
New  York University, and Georgetown University,
where he received his doctorate.