Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards: Proceedings Symposium, 22–26 October 1990, Perugia, Italy

212 Pages·1993·5.7 MB·English

by  Franco Siccardi, Daniel N. Adom (auth.), J. Nemec, J. M. Nigg, F. Siccardi (eds.)

Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards
Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research
VOLUME2
SERIES EDITOR
Mohammed I. EI-Sabh, Departement d'Oceanographie, Universite du
a
Quebec Rimouski, Quebec, Canada
EDITORIAL BOARD
Wang Ang-Sheng, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric
Physics, Beijing; P.R. China
Gerhard Berz, Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, München,
Germany
Oscar Gonzalez-Ferran, Departamento de Geologia y Geofisica, Facultad
de Ciencias Fisicas y Mathematicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Terry Jeggle, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Asian Institute of
Technology, Bangkok, Thailand
Cinna Lomnitz, National University of Mexico, Institute de Geofisica,
Mexico, D.F. Mexico
Tad S. Murty, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, BC, Canada
Alvin H. Mushkatel, Office of Hazards Studies, Center for Public Affairs,
Arizona State University, Tempe, Al; USA
Joanne M. Nigg, Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware,
Newark, DE, USA
Alexei V. Nikolaev, Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of
Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Paul M. Thompson, Flood Hazard Research Center, Middlesex University,
Enfield, UK
Donald A. Wilhite, International Drought Information Center, University of
Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA
The fit/es published in this series are /isted at the end of this vo/urne.
Prediction and Perception
of Natural Hazards
Proeeedings Symposium,
22-26 Oetaber 1990,
Perugia, Italy
Edited by
J. NEMEC
Consultant United Nations,
Department of Humanitarian Affairs,
Geneva, Switzerland
J.M. NIGG
University of Delaware,
Newark, U.SA
and
F. SICCARDI
University of Genova,
Genova, Italy
INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR
NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
1990 - 2000
Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Oata
Pred1ct1on and percept10n of natural hazards I ed1ted by J. NeMec and
J.M. N1gg and F. S1ccard1.
p. cm. (Advances 1n natural and technolog1cal hazards
research; v. 2)
Proceed1ngs of a workshop held 1n Perug1a, Italy, Oct. 22-26,
1990.
1. Natural d1sasters--Congresses. 2. Natural d1saster warn1ng
syste~s--Congresses. I. Ne~ec, Jaromlr. 11. N1gg, Joanne M.
111. S1ccard1, Franco. IV. Ser1es.
GB5001.P73 1993
363.3'472--dc20 93-4585
ISBN 978-90-481-4289-7 ISBN 978-94-015-8190-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-8190-5
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 1993 Springer Science+Business Media Oordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1993.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1993
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
nIE INTERNATIONAL DECADE
t1.~
% FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
~
~d!f
~ IDNDR
UnilCd Nation, 1990 -2000
OBJECTIVES OF nIE IDNDR
Reduction of the 10ss of life, property damage and social and economic disruption caused
by natural disasters_
SPECIFIC TARGETS OF nIE DECADE
By the year 2000, all countries, as part of their plan to achieve sustainable development,
should have in place:
(a) Comprehensive national assessments of risks from natural hazards, with
these assessments taken into account in development plans;
(b) Mitigation plans at national and/or local levels, involving long-term
prevention and preparedness and community awareness; and
(c) Ready access to global, regional, national and local warning systems and
broad dissemination of warnings.
ORGANIZA TIONAL ARRANGEMENTS
Special High Level Council (SHLC)
The Council is a body consisting of internationally prominent persons who:
* advise the Secretary General on the Decade;
* take action in promoting public awareness and mobilizing the necessary
support from the public and private sectors.
Scientific and Technical Committee (STC)
A group of 25 scientific and technical experts selected on the basis of their personal
capacities and qualifications, and with regard to the diversity of disaster mitigation issues
and equitable geographical representation.
vi
The functions of the committee are:
* to develop overall programmes to be taken into account in bilateral and
multilateral cooperation;
* to assess and evaluate the activities carried out in the Decade and to make
recommendations on the overall programmes in an annual report to the
Secretary General.
The Committee also includes experts from the various organizations and bodies of the
United Nations system.
National Committees
108 national committees and focal points have been established around the world. They
form an inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral group with a key role in the realization of
Decade targets.
Their roles inelude:
* identification of national priorities;
* formulation and implementation of disaster mitigation and prevention plans;
* developing and monitoring of projects;
* providing information and advice to govemments, public service and related
organizations and to the general public.
A number of regional conferences of national IDNDR committees have taken place to date,
and a world conference of national IDNDR committees which will undertake amid-term
review of Decade activities is scheduled to take place in 1994.
Secretariat
Established at the United Nations Office in Geneva, in elose association with DHA, the
Secretariat is responsible for the coordination of Decade activities and providing Secretariat
support to the Special High Level Council and the STC.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.M. Nigg and F. Siccardi
Preface to the Workshop Proceedings xi
SESSION 1
THE EFFECf OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN NATURAL HAZARD
PREDICflON ON THE liSER COMMUNITIES
F. Siccardi and D.N. Adom
A Non-Structural Policy for the Mitigation of Flood Effects: The Arno Project 3
A.G. Davenport
The Impact of Structural Damage due to Hurricanes and the Prospects for Disaster
Reduction 13
W.R. Dombrowsky
The Social Dimensions of Warning and the Transition from Folk Wisdom to
Laymanship 23
J.K. Mitchell
Natural Hazard Predictions and Responses in Very Large Cities 29
R. Morchio
The Effect of the Uncertainties in Natural Hazard Prediction on the User
Communities 39
B.N. Porfrriev
Uncertainties in Natural Hazards Prediction and its Effect on User Communities
Perception: Soviet Union Case Study 49
SESSION 2
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICflONS OF LARGE
SCALE A TMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA: DROUGHTS, TORNADOES AND
HURRICANES
I.L. Rasmussen
Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Large Scale Atmospheric
Phenomena, Droughts, Tomadoes and Hurricanes 57
viii Table of contents
E.J. Baker
Empirical Studies of Public Response to Tornado and Hurricane Wamings ::: the
United States 65
T.M. Carter
The Role of Technical Hazard and Forecast Information in Preparedness for and
Response to the Hurricane Hazard in the United States 75
SESSION 3
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICTIONS OF FLOODS
AND LANDS LIDES
L. Ubertini
Some Remarks on Scientific Activity of Flood Prediction in Italy 85
D.E. Alexander
Landslides as Polycausal Phenomena 93
A.Carrara
Uncertainty in Evaluating Landslide Hazard and Risk 101
R. Geipel
The River Danube Flood of 27 March 1988 111
E. Gruntfest
A Summary of the State of the Art in Flash Flood Waming Systems in the
United States 119
J. Corominas
Spatial Prediction of Landslides 125
SESSION 4
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICTIONS OF
EARTHQUAKES AND VOLCANOES
A.S. Karamanos
Earthquake Prediction from the Viewpoint of Earthquake Engineering 135
D.S. Mileti
Communicating Public Earthquake Risk Information 143
G.F. Panza, P. Suhado1c and P. Harabaglia
Uncertainties in the Estimate of Strong Ground Motion in the Surroundings of
a Large Earthquake 153
Table of contents ix
M.K. Lindell and R.W. Perry
Risk Area Residents' Changing Perceptions of Volcano Hazard at Mt. St Helens 159
V.Kamik
Uncertainties in the Oevelopment of Predictions of Earthquakes 167
SESSION 5
THE USE OF SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION BY THE MEDIA
E.L. Quarantelli
The Different Worlds of Science and Mass Communication: Implications for
Information Flow from the Former to the Latter 175
B. Oe Marchi
Effective Communication between the Scientific Community and the Media 183
M. Lombardi
Ideas for a Global Model of Communication and IDNDR Potential 193
A. Mazur
Quantity of Reporting about Hazards: The Case of Naturally Occurring Radon 199
R. Meli
Earthquake Prediction and Information to the Public - A Mexican Perspective 203