Predicting high quality AFQT with youth attitude tracking study data.

82 Pages·1.3 MB·en_US

by  Rickman, Jackie Lynn.;Thomas, George W.;Gorman, Linda G.

PUDU. KNOX LIBRARY
NAVAL iPOSTGRADUATESCHOOL
CALIFORNIA93943-5002

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
Monterey, California
THESIS
PREDICTING HIGH QUALITY AFQT
WITH
YOUTH ATTITUDE TRACKING STUDY DATA
by
Jackie Lynn Rickman
December, 1991
Thesis Co-Advisors: George W. Thomas
Linda Gorman
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
T258488

UNCLASSIFIED
SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE
1a REPORTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION 1b RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS
Unclassified
2a SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONAUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFREPORT
Approvedfur publicrelease;distributionisunlimited.
2b.DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADINGSCHEDULE
4.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONREPORTNUMBER(S) 5 MONITORINGORGANIZATIONREPORTNUMBER(S)
6a NAMEOFPERFORMINGORGANIZATION 6b.OFFICESYMBOL 7a NAMEOFMONITORINGORGANIZATION
NavalPostgraduateSchool (Ifapplicable) NavalPostgraduateSchool
55
6c ADDRESS{City,State,andZIPCode) 7b.ADDRESS(City,State,andZIPCode)
Monterey,CA 93943-5000 Monterey,CA 93943-5000
8a NAMEOF FUNDING/SPONSORING 8b OFFICESYMBOL 9 PROCUREMENTINSTRUMENTIDENTIFICATIONNUMBER
ORGANIZATION (Ifapplicable)
8c ADDRESS(City,State,andZIPCode) 10 SOURCEOFFUNDINGNUMBERS
ProgramtlementNo ProjectNo TaskNu WorkUrmAccession
Number
11 TITLE(IncludeSecurityClassification)
PREDICTINGHIGHQUALITYAFQTWITHYOUTHATTITUDETRACKINGSURVEYDATA(UNCLASSIFIED)
12 PERSONALAUTHOR(S) Jack L. Rickman
13a TYPEOFREPORT 13b TIMECOVERED 14 DATEOF REPORT(year,month,day) 15.PAGECOUNT
Master'sThesis From To December, 1991 72
16 SUPPLEMENTARYNOTATION
TheviewsexpressedinthisthesisarethoseoftheauthoranddonotreflecttheofficialpolicyorpositionoftheDepartmentofDefenseortheU.S.
Government.
17.COSATICODES 18 SUBJECTTERMS(continueonreverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber)
FIELD GROUP SUBGROUP AFQT ASVAB YATS NLSY MANPOWER
REGRESSION HIGHQUALITY MILITARYMANPOWER
19.ABSTRACT(continueonreverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber)
ThisthesisdemonstratesthatYouthAttitudeTrackingStudy(YATS)datacanbeusedlocreateasyntheticAFQTclassificationprocedure
fordistinguishinghighquality respondents. Unlikepreviousmethods,theproceduredoesnotrelyoninterestinthemilitarytopredict
AFQTcategory. TheestimatesarebasedonananalysisoftheYATSdatamatchedwiththeDefenseManpowerDataCentercohortdatafile
using abinomiallogisticregressionmodel. Themarketsegmentanalyzedis17to21 yearoldmaleswhoareeitherhighschoolgraduates
orprospectivegraduates. ThedependentvariableiswhetherornotarespondentwouldscoreabovethefiftiethpercentileontheArmed
ForcesQualificationTest. Theexplanatoryvariablesreflectindividualdemographic,educationalandlabormarketcharacteristicsatthe
timeof YATS interview. TheYATStimeframeisrestrictedto 1983through 1985 inordertofacilitatefuturebridgingofYATSmodels
withmodelsestimatedwithsimilartimeperioddatafromtheNationalLongitudinalSurveyofYouth(NLSY) Additionally,themodels
.
may beusedtoprovideestimatesofAFQTqualityformorerecentYATSrespondents.
20 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFABSTRACT 21 ABSTRACTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION
El UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED ] SAMEASREPORT ] DTICUSERS Unclassified
22a NAMEOF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b TELEPHONE (IncludeAreacode) 22c OFFICE SYMBOL
GeorgeW.Thomas 408-646-2471 ASTE
DD FORM 1473, 84 MAR 83 APReditionmaybeuseduntilexhausted SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE
Allothereditionsareobsolete UNCLASSIFIED
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
PREDICTING HIGH QUALITY AFQT
WITH
YOUTH ATTITUDE TRACKING STUDY DATA
by
Jackie Lynn Rickman
Major, United States Marine Corps
B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1979
Submitted in partial fulfillment
ofthe requirements for the degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANPOWER MANAGEMENT
from the
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
December, l^&l
. .
ABSTRACT
This thesis demonstrates that Youth Attitude Tracking Study
(YATS) data can be used to create a synthetic AFQT classification
procedure for distinguishing high quality respondents. Unlike
previous methods the procedure does not rely on interest in the
,
military to predict AFQT category. The estimates are based on an
analysis of the YATS data matched with the Defense Manpower Data
Center cohort data file using a binomial logistic regression model.
The market segment analyzed is 17 to 21 year old males who are
either high school graduates or prospective high school graduates
The dependent variable is whether or not a respondent would score
above the fiftieth percentile on the Armed Forces Qualification
Test. The explanatory variables reflect individual demographic,
educational and labor market characteristics at the time of YATS
interview. The YATS time frame is restricted to 1983 through 1985
in order to facilitate future bridging of YATS models with models
estimated with similar time period data from the National
Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) Additionally, the models may
.
be used to provide estimates of AFQT quality for more recent YATS
respondents
in
. ...
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
I 1
II. LITERATURE REVIEW 11
III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 16
A. SAMPLE DESCRIPTION 16
B. SAMPLE REDUCTION 19
C. DEPENDENT VARIABLE 24
D. METHODOLOGY 25
E. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 27
1 Demographic Explanatory Variables 30
2 Education Explanatory Variables 30
3. Labor Market Status Explanatory Variables 32
.
4 Descriptive Statistics 32
F. DATA AND METHODOLOGY SUMMARY 35
IV. ANALYSIS 37
A. GENERAL 37
B. LOGIT REGRESSION 37
1. MODELS 38
2. ANALYSIS OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 39
IV