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PUDU. KNOX LIBRARY NAVAL iPOSTGRADUATESCHOOL CALIFORNIA93943-5002 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS PREDICTING HIGH QUALITY AFQT WITH YOUTH ATTITUDE TRACKING STUDY DATA by Jackie Lynn Rickman December, 1991 Thesis Co-Advisors: George W. Thomas Linda Gorman Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited T258488 UNCLASSIFIED SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 1a REPORTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION 1b RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS Unclassified 2a SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONAUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFREPORT Approvedfur publicrelease;distributionisunlimited. 2b.DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADINGSCHEDULE 4.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONREPORTNUMBER(S) 5 MONITORINGORGANIZATIONREPORTNUMBER(S) 6a NAMEOFPERFORMINGORGANIZATION 6b.OFFICESYMBOL 7a NAMEOFMONITORINGORGANIZATION NavalPostgraduateSchool (Ifapplicable) NavalPostgraduateSchool 55 6c ADDRESS{City,State,andZIPCode) 7b.ADDRESS(City,State,andZIPCode) Monterey,CA 93943-5000 Monterey,CA 93943-5000 8a NAMEOF FUNDING/SPONSORING 8b OFFICESYMBOL 9 PROCUREMENTINSTRUMENTIDENTIFICATIONNUMBER ORGANIZATION (Ifapplicable) 8c ADDRESS(City,State,andZIPCode) 10 SOURCEOFFUNDINGNUMBERS ProgramtlementNo ProjectNo TaskNu WorkUrmAccession Number 11 TITLE(IncludeSecurityClassification) PREDICTINGHIGHQUALITYAFQTWITHYOUTHATTITUDETRACKINGSURVEYDATA(UNCLASSIFIED) 12 PERSONALAUTHOR(S) Jack L. Rickman 13a TYPEOFREPORT 13b TIMECOVERED 14 DATEOF REPORT(year,month,day) 15.PAGECOUNT Master'sThesis From To December, 1991 72 16 SUPPLEMENTARYNOTATION TheviewsexpressedinthisthesisarethoseoftheauthoranddonotreflecttheofficialpolicyorpositionoftheDepartmentofDefenseortheU.S. Government. 17.COSATICODES 18 SUBJECTTERMS(continueonreverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber) FIELD GROUP SUBGROUP AFQT ASVAB YATS NLSY MANPOWER REGRESSION HIGHQUALITY MILITARYMANPOWER 19.ABSTRACT(continueonreverseifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber) ThisthesisdemonstratesthatYouthAttitudeTrackingStudy(YATS)datacanbeusedlocreateasyntheticAFQTclassificationprocedure fordistinguishinghighquality respondents. Unlikepreviousmethods,theproceduredoesnotrelyoninterestinthemilitarytopredict AFQTcategory. TheestimatesarebasedonananalysisoftheYATSdatamatchedwiththeDefenseManpowerDataCentercohortdatafile using abinomiallogisticregressionmodel. Themarketsegmentanalyzedis17to21 yearoldmaleswhoareeitherhighschoolgraduates orprospectivegraduates. ThedependentvariableiswhetherornotarespondentwouldscoreabovethefiftiethpercentileontheArmed ForcesQualificationTest. Theexplanatoryvariablesreflectindividualdemographic,educationalandlabormarketcharacteristicsatthe timeof YATS interview. TheYATStimeframeisrestrictedto 1983through 1985 inordertofacilitatefuturebridgingofYATSmodels withmodelsestimatedwithsimilartimeperioddatafromtheNationalLongitudinalSurveyofYouth(NLSY) Additionally,themodels . may beusedtoprovideestimatesofAFQTqualityformorerecentYATSrespondents. 20 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFABSTRACT 21 ABSTRACTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION El UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED ] SAMEASREPORT ] DTICUSERS Unclassified 22a NAMEOF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b TELEPHONE (IncludeAreacode) 22c OFFICE SYMBOL GeorgeW.Thomas 408-646-2471 ASTE DD FORM 1473, 84 MAR 83 APReditionmaybeuseduntilexhausted SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE Allothereditionsareobsolete UNCLASSIFIED Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. PREDICTING HIGH QUALITY AFQT WITH YOUTH ATTITUDE TRACKING STUDY DATA by Jackie Lynn Rickman Major, United States Marine Corps B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1979 Submitted in partial fulfillment ofthe requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANPOWER MANAGEMENT from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December, l^&l . . ABSTRACT This thesis demonstrates that Youth Attitude Tracking Study (YATS) data can be used to create a synthetic AFQT classification procedure for distinguishing high quality respondents. Unlike previous methods the procedure does not rely on interest in the , military to predict AFQT category. The estimates are based on an analysis of the YATS data matched with the Defense Manpower Data Center cohort data file using a binomial logistic regression model. The market segment analyzed is 17 to 21 year old males who are either high school graduates or prospective high school graduates The dependent variable is whether or not a respondent would score above the fiftieth percentile on the Armed Forces Qualification Test. The explanatory variables reflect individual demographic, educational and labor market characteristics at the time of YATS interview. The YATS time frame is restricted to 1983 through 1985 in order to facilitate future bridging of YATS models with models estimated with similar time period data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) Additionally, the models may . be used to provide estimates of AFQT quality for more recent YATS respondents in . ... TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND I 1 II. LITERATURE REVIEW 11 III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY 16 A. SAMPLE DESCRIPTION 16 B. SAMPLE REDUCTION 19 C. DEPENDENT VARIABLE 24 D. METHODOLOGY 25 E. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 27 1 Demographic Explanatory Variables 30 2 Education Explanatory Variables 30 3. Labor Market Status Explanatory Variables 32 . 4 Descriptive Statistics 32 F. DATA AND METHODOLOGY SUMMARY 35 IV. ANALYSIS 37 A. GENERAL 37 B. LOGIT REGRESSION 37 1. MODELS 38 2. ANALYSIS OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 39 IV