Power-System Reliability Calculations

182 Pages·1973·4.08 MB·English

by  Roy Billington

Power-SysRteelmi abiClailtcyu lations
MONOGRAPHS IN MODERN ELECTRICAL TECHNOLOGY
AlexandKeurs koS,e riEedsi tor
1.S olid-SDtCa tMeo toDrr ivebsyA lexandKeurs ko
2.E lectDriiscc harLgaem psb yJ ohnF .W aymouth
3.H igh-VolMteaagseu remTeencth niqbuyeA sd ol1f.S chwab
4.T heT heorya ndD esigonfCy cloconverbtyeW risl liMamc Murray
S.C omputer-ADiedseidg onfE lectMraicch inebryyCy rilG .V einott
6.P ower-SysRteelmi abiClailtcyu latbiyoR nosy B illinRtoobne,rJ t.R ingleaen,d
AlleJn.W ood
Power-SysRteelmi abiClailtcyu lations
RoyB iIIinton,
RoberJt.R inglaened,
AlleJn W ood
.
TheM IT Press
CambridgeM,a ssachusaentdtL so,n donE,n gland
Copyright<C> 197b3y
The Massachusetts InstiotufteT echnology
Alrli ghtsreserved . Nopart oft hisbo olc maybe reproduced in
any formo rb yan y means, electronic ormechan ical, includiDg
photocopyingreco,rd ing,o rb yany informatisotno ragean d
retrieval system,w ithopermisusti on inwri tinfgrom the publisher.
Itwas scti nT imes Ncw Roman
by WolCofm positionCo .,I nc.
printed onM ohawNkco text Offsct
and boundi nCo lumbiaM illbanlc Vellum( MBV-4426)
byThe ColoniPresals Inc.
inthe UnitedS tates ofAme rica.
Library ofCo ngress CatalogiinnPu gb licatiDaotan
BillintRooyn.,
Power-system reliabicallicutyl ations.
(Monographsi nm odem e1cctric::a1 technology)
Includes bibliographical references.
I.Electri c power systems-Reliability.2 .E lectric
power distribution-Tacabllculaest,i onetcs.,
I.R iDglRceo,be rtI .j,o ianutt hoUr.. Wood,
AI1cn I.j,o ianutth orm.. Title.
TKl00s.BS7 621.319 73·2681
ISBN o..262-0209S.X
CONTENTS
Preface vii
1 INTRODUCTIONT O POWER-SYSTEM RELIABILITY
CALCULATIONS 1
1.1I ntroduction 1
1.2B ackgrouannddH istorDiecvaell opment 1
1.3R esumoef t heC ontenotfts h eM onograph 5
References 6
2 RELIABILITAYN D AVAILABILITAYP PLICATIONS
TO DISTRIBUTIOSNY STEMS 8
2.1I ntroduction 8
2.2T heR enewaPlr oce(sRse pairaSbylset eRme)c ogniztihneg
Run-Fail-RepaCiyrc-lReu n 10
2.3M odels for Redundant ComponOeuntta gOevse r2l0a pping
2.4R eliabiPlriotcye dureSsu bfsotra tions 31
References 44
3 APPLICATIOTNO GENERATIONP LANNING 46
3.1I ntroduction 46
3.2G eneratSiyosnt eMmo del 47
3.3L oadM odel 67
3.4E xpansiAonna lysis 79
3.5L oadS tatistics 90
3.6I nterpretoaftt hieLo OnL Pa ndM argiFnr equenIcnyd ices9 6
References 99
4 APPLICATIONTSO BULK POWER-SUPPLYS YSTEMS 101
4.1I ntroduction 101
4.2T wo-ArReeal iabiElviatlyu ation 102
4.3C omposiStyes teRme liabiElviatlyu ation 104
4.4C onditiPornoabla biAlpiptryo ach 109
4.5D ataR equirements 114
4.6T ransmisPsliaonnn ing 124
References 125
Contents vi
5 GENERATION-SYSTEM OPERATION 127
5.1 Introduction 127
5.2D eratSetda tCeo ncepts 131
5.3T heE ffecotf P eakiEnqgu ipmeonntt heO peratiRnegs erv1e41
5.4I nterconnSeycstteeSdmp inning-ReRseeqruvier ements 158
References 169
Index 171
PREFACE
Thea uthoorfst himso nograhpahv neo ta ttemptteodd e velao pt ext­
booki np ower-syrsetleima bciallictuyl atIitio smn osr:e l ikaep rogress
reporatn,di ti sh opetdh atth ep ublicaotfit ohnim so nograwpihl clo n­
tributtote h eg rowtohf t heu seo fa nalytrieclaila btielcihtnyi qtuoe s
desiagnnd a nalypzoew esry steTmhse.r aer meo reu nsolvtehda sno lved
probleimnts h ifise ld.
Ourp urpoisset od escrpirbaec timceatlh odtsh ahta vbee eunt ilized
byt hea uthoarnsd t heaisrs ociiants eosl viancgt upaolw er-syrsetleim­
abilpirtoyb leTmhsi.es x periehnacsee x tendoevde ar n umbeorf y ears
andh asi ncludbeodt hw orkw itghr aduate-slteuvdeelni tnvs a rious
prograamnsd c onsulteinnggi neearsisnigg nmewnitteshl ecturtiicl ities
inb otNho rtahn dS outAhm erica.
Thefi elidsn otn ewR.e liabimleitthyo dhsa vbee euns eidn t hede sign
ofp ower-genersaytsitoefnmo srs ome4 0y earTsh.e g enerparlo blem
ist haotf d esignoirne gv aluattihnerg e liaboifla into yn goinsgy stem.
Thiissn ott hes amep roblaesmt hem ission-orrieelnitaebdpi rloibtlye m
oft hes pacvee hicolrde e feneslee ctrosnyisctset mh ahta sr eceisvoe d
mucha ttentiinro enc eyneta rs.
Them onograsptha rwtist ahp plicattioso unbss ysdteesmi bgync on­
sidersiunbgs taltaiyoonau ntd g eneration-rseylsitaebmTi hleistaeyr .e as
haver eceicvoends ideraatbtleen tainodnt ,h em ethodpsr esenhtaevde
evolvoevde ar n umbeorf y earIsn.t hel asttw oc haptetrhsei nteinst
moret og ivae p rogrersesp oorntt her eliabaislpietcyot fsc ombined
generatainodnt -ransmissiond-essyisagtnned mt her eliaobpleer ation
ofp owegre neratsiyosnt eTmhse.r aer eo,fc oursoet,h eirm portraenlti ­
abilpirtoyb leimnts h ep owesry stetmh ahta vneo tb eetnr eatheedr e.
Iti so urfi rmb elitehfa tth es uccesaspfpulli caotfit ohne speo wer­
systerme liabciallictuyl amteitohno ddse penudpso nt hes imultaneous
existeonftc her efea ctors:
1.t hed evelopmoefna tn a ppropreinagtien eemroidnegfl o rt her eli­
abilpirtoyb laemth and,
2.t hee stablishomfae nna tp proprriiastiken deoxr,i ndeoxf s ervice
qualiatnyd,
3.t hea cceosfss ysteamn dc omponeonpte ratainndgf ailiunrfeo rma­
tiofnr owmh icrhe liabainldai vtayi labpialriatmye tmearysb ee stimated.
Preface viii
Thefi rsits p erhatphse e asietsoat c compliTshhes. e conadl ways
involav deesg roefes ubjectivtehnametas ysl eatdo a ne ndledsesb ate
ina nys pecicfiacs eT.h es ignificoafnt cheet hiridsm osto ftenu nder­
estimatIentd h.ep astt,h ec ollecatnidop nr ocessoifdn agt haa so ften
laggbeedh intdh ed evelopmoefrn etl iabmioldietlyIs ti. s o urh opet hat
thimso nogrampahy i ns omes malwla ys ervteos putrh eseeff ortWse.
havaet tempttoei dn cluadnea dequadtees cripotfti honre e quidreadt a
alonwgi tthh ed evelopmoefen at cmho del.
Finaltlhyea, u thowrosu lldi kteoe xpretshse aiprp reciaftoirto hne
manyc ontributoifto hnesi cru rreanntd p asats sociaTtheissm. u st
inclutdheo smea nym emberosf g roupssp onsorbeydt heI EEEt,h e
EEla,n dt heC EA.M ucho ft hem ateriinat lh imso nograhpahs b een
takefnr otme chnical ppuabpleirsbshy et dh eI EEEW.e wistho e xpress
oura ppreciaftoitroh npe e rmisstiouo snet himsa teriWael w.o uladl so
likteo t hanSka raNh. R inglfeoerd rafttihneig l lustraantdiM ornss.
Roy Billinftoorhn e ra ssistainntc hee p reparatoifto hn eo riginal
manuscript.
Power-SysRteelmi abiClailtcyu lations
1 INTRODUCTIONT O POWER-SYSTEM
RELIABILITCYA LCULATIONS
1.I1n troduction
Thep rimaorbyj ectoiftv hei tse xitst oc ollaencdti llusttreacthen iques
thahta veb eenap pliteodt hep redictoifro enl iabainldia tvya ilability
ofs pecisfiecg menotfas n e lectproiwce sry steTmh.et errme liabiisl ity
useidn a ne ngineesreinnstgeo i ndicaaq tuea liotfcy o nstaonfcs ye rvice.
Thet exatt tempttoes m phasitzheee ngineearnidnn gu meripcraolc e­
dureesm ployiendm akinrge liabainldia tvya ilabpirleidtiyc tRieofn­s.
erencaersoe ff eretdod iretchter eadteorf undamendteavle lopmoefn ts
basisct atisatnidcp arlo babitlhietoyr y.
Thet ermrse liabailvi�tiyl,a baidleiqtuya,c dye,p endabialnidts ye,­
curiatryed efineadsn eedeadn da sa ppliiened a cshp ecisfiecc tiTohne.
applicaotfit ohne stee rmhsa se volvoevde mra nyd ecadeasn,dt here­
forues agoef s omeo ft het ermissu niquteot hea rae ofp owesry s­
tema pplicatIitso enesm.as p proprtiaost tea trhti tse xwti tehx cerpts
fromn otabelaer lpya peornst hes ubjeIctit s.p ossitbolo eb taaig no od
ideoaf t hem odelasn di ndiceemsp loytehdr edee cadaegso f romc om­
mentbsy D eani n1 938L,ym1a ni n1 933a,nd2S mitihn 1 934.3
1.B2a ckgrounadn dH istoriDceavle lopment
Observteh eu seo fs uchw ordass " reliabialnid"t eyff"e ctiveinne ss"
the1 93p8a pebry D ean:1
Oneo ft her ealdliyffi cuplrto blefmasc ebdy t hosree sponsfiobrl e
plannionfeg l ectric suppilsty h asotyf sd etceimdsih nogwf atrh eayr e
justifiienid n creastihneig n vestmoennt th eiprr operttioie msp rove
servircee liaWbhiillet ihtipsyr o.b liesmn ota ta lnle wi nt hei ndustry,
ith asn everthetlaekseosnn g reatilnyc reased siginnti hfiecp aanscte
fewy ears.
Ing enertahle,ra er et hreber oaads pecotfts h irse liabqiliuteys tion.
Thefi rsitst ok nowt horougthhlepy r esqeunatlio tfo yn e'sse rvice
andj uswth oi sh armebdy t hep reseonutt ageasn,dh owm uchW.i th
sucahb ackgrooufnsd y stepme rformaintic sne o td ifficuldte tteor mine
wherien g enertahleg reater hazards lie.
Thes econads peicsat k nowledogfte h mee thodasth andt oi mprove
servicient hem anys ituatwihoincsah r isaesw, e lla st hec osotf t hese
remediIetsi .sh ighilmyp ortatnhtat th esmee thodosfi mprovreedl i-