Power System Planning Technologies and Applications: Concepts, Solutions and Management

297 Pages·2012·5.362 MB·English

by  Fawwaz Elkarmi, Fawwaz Elkarmi, Nazih Abu Shikhah

Power System
Planning Technologies
and Applications:
Concepts, Solutions,
and Management
Fawwaz Elkarmi
Amman University, Jordan
Nazih Abu-Shikhah
Amman University, Jordan
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Elkarmi, Fawwaz, 1950-
Power system planning technologies and applications: concepts, solutions and management / by Fawwaz Elkarmi and
Nazih AbuShikhah.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary: “This book focuses on the technical planning of power systems, taking into account technological evolutions in
equipment as well as the economic, financial, and societal factors that drive supply and demand and have implications for
technical planning at the micro level”--Provided by publisher.
ISBN 978-1-4666-0173-4 (hardcover) -- ISBN 978-1-4666-0174-1 (ebook) -- ISBN 978-1-4666-0175-8 (print & perpetual
access) 1. Electric power systems--Management. I. AbuShikhah, Nazih, 1957- II. Title.
TK3001.E46 2012
333.79--dc23
2011048061
British Cataloguing in Publication Data
A Cataloguing in Publication record for this book is available from the British Library.
All work contributed to this book is new, previously-unpublished material. The views expressed in this book are those of the
authors, but not necessarily of the publisher.
Table of Contents
Foreword .............................................................................................................................................xiii
Preface .................................................................................................................................................xiv
Chapter 1
Power System Planning Process Objectives ...........................................................................................1
Introduction .....................................................................................................................................1
Power System Composition ............................................................................................................2
The Planning Process ......................................................................................................................5
Power System Planning ..................................................................................................................8
Summary .......................................................................................................................................10
Chapter 2
Factors Affecting the Future of Power Supply Industry .......................................................................13
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................13
Electricity Supply Industry Reform ..............................................................................................15
Deregulation of Markets ...............................................................................................................16
Public Private Partnership Models ................................................................................................17
Environmental Considerations ......................................................................................................18
Other Considerations Affecting the Power Industry Reform ........................................................20
Case Study ....................................................................................................................................23
Summary .......................................................................................................................................26
Chapter 3
Planning Criteria ...................................................................................................................................27
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................27
Planning Expansion .....................................................................................................................28
Power System Stability Concerns .................................................................................................31
Modeling and Performance Indicators .........................................................................................33
Power Quality (PQ) Considerations .............................................................................................37
Uncertainty Constraints and Risk Analysis Planning ...................................................................40
Case Study: Generation Expansion Planning ...............................................................................41
Summary ......................................................................................................................................43
Chapter 4
Load Research .......................................................................................................................................47
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................47
Load Research Methodology ........................................................................................................49
Sampling Design ...........................................................................................................................49
Use of Load Research Results ......................................................................................................51
Driving Factors ............................................................................................................................ 52
Load Modeling ..............................................................................................................................53
Case Study ....................................................................................................................................55
Summary .......................................................................................................................................56
Chapter 5
Electricity Load Forecasting .................................................................................................................61
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................61
Classification Electrical Load Forecasting ...................................................................................63
Forecasting Perspectives ...............................................................................................................65
Forecasting Driving Factors .........................................................................................................66
Forecasting Time Frames ..............................................................................................................75
Case Study ....................................................................................................................................77
Summary .......................................................................................................................................77
Chapter 6
Energy Efficiency ..................................................................................................................................82
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................82
Energy Efficiency Impact on Electricity Consumption ................................................................84
Appliance Efficiency ....................................................................................................................84
Building Efficiency .......................................................................................................................85
Improving Energy Efficiency ........................................................................................................88
Incentives Mechanisms to Effect EE ............................................................................................91
Case Study ....................................................................................................................................91
Summary .......................................................................................................................................94
Chapter 7
Demand Side Management ...................................................................................................................99
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................99
Concepts and Characteristics of Demand Side Management (DSM) ........................................100
Alternatives of DSM ..................................................................................................................102
Benefits of DSM ........................................................................................................................102
Implementation of DSM ............................................................................................................103
Evaluation of DSM Alternatives ................................................................................................104
Case Study ..................................................................................................................................105
Summary .....................................................................................................................................105
Chapter 8
Renewable Energy Technologies ........................................................................................................121
Introduction .................................................................................................................................121
RE and Electric Power ................................................................................................................124
Green Energy and Sustainable Energy Generation ....................................................................127
Site Specificity ...........................................................................................................................131
RE Pricing ...................................................................................................................................134
Production Economics ................................................................................................................135
Environmental Impacts ...............................................................................................................136
Promoting of RE .........................................................................................................................138
Summary ....................................................................................................................................139
Chapter 9
System Expansion Studies ..................................................................................................................143
Introduction .................................................................................................................................143
Generation Expansion .................................................................................................................144
Transmission and Distribution Expansion ..................................................................................145
Cost Considerations and Expansion Obligations ........................................................................146
Regulatory Incentives .................................................................................................................146
Case Study ..................................................................................................................................147
Summary .....................................................................................................................................154
Chapter 10
Integrated Resource Planning .............................................................................................................156
Introduction ................................................................................................................................156
Concept and Rationale ................................................................................................................157
Supply and Demand Side Interaction ........................................................................................158
Uncertainty and Cost Implications ............................................................................................ 161
Benefits of IRP ............................................................................................................................162
Case Study ..................................................................................................................................164
Summary .....................................................................................................................................167
Chapter 11
Interconnected Systems ......................................................................................................................171
Introduction ................................................................................................................................171
AC and HVDC Interconnection ..................................................................................................172
Benefits of Interconnection .........................................................................................................178
Interconnection: Technical Factors ............................................................................................179
Economic and Financial Impacts ................................................................................................182
Environmental Concerns ............................................................................................................186
Social Impacts .............................................................................................................................186
Legal Aspects .............................................................................................................................187
Political Aspect ...........................................................................................................................188
Summary .....................................................................................................................................188
Chapter 12
Financing of Power Projects ...............................................................................................................191
Introduction .................................................................................................................................191
Economic Feasibility of Projects ................................................................................................193
Factors Influencing Investment in Power Systems .....................................................................194
Financial vs. Economic Analyses ...............................................................................................196
Financial Analysis Tools .............................................................................................................199
Major Factors Influencing Financing ..........................................................................................200
Financing Requirements .............................................................................................................204
Public Private Partnership (PPP) ................................................................................................206
Summary .....................................................................................................................................210
Chapter 13
Tariff Studies .......................................................................................................................................213
Introduction ................................................................................................................................213
Tariff Calculation Models ...........................................................................................................215
Social Tariff Impacts ..................................................................................................................221
Cost-Reflective Tariff ..................................................................................................................222
Regulations and Tariffs ...............................................................................................................222
Case Study: Electricity Tariffs in Jordan (ERC, 2005) ...............................................................224
Net Paid Up Capital: JEPCO Prior to 2011 ................................................................................227
Summary .....................................................................................................................................231
Chapter 14
Planning Tools .....................................................................................................................................236
Introduction .................................................................................................................................236
Data Collection ...........................................................................................................................237
Group Thinking ...........................................................................................................................240
Decision Support Analysis ..........................................................................................................241
Decision Aiding Tools ................................................................................................................245
Strategic Planning .......................................................................................................................249
Summary .....................................................................................................................................257
Compilation of References ...............................................................................................................261
About the Contributors ....................................................................................................................272
Index ...................................................................................................................................................275
Detailed Table of Contents
Foreword ............................................................................................................................................xiii
Preface ................................................................................................................................................xiv
Chapter 1
Power System Planning Process Objectives ...........................................................................................1
This chapter aims at providing the basic background and foundation to the whole power system planning
process covered in this book. It helps in setting the stage for a clearer and better understanding of the
ensuing chapters. This is needed in the case of all readers, but it is especially important for readers who
are not from the power industry such as regulators, policy makers, or legislators. Moreover, the planning
process itself is also introduced in this chapter. This is particularly helpful for practicing engineers and
other readers who might not be familiar with such issues. Finally, power system planning is introduced
in this chapter to emphasize specific functions used in this context, especially those that are different
than general planning functions.
Chapter 2
Factors Affecting the Future of Power Supply Industry .......................................................................13
In the past two or three decades, several developments took place in the power supply industry. These
developments formed influencing factors that have a bearing on the power supply industry structure and
future evolution. It is very helpful before embarking on the planning of the power system to attempt to
identify such factors and understand how they might affect the future plans, design, composition, and
operational aspects of the power system.
In many countries the power supply industry has been transformed by means of reforms, deregulation
of markets, and public-private partnerships into new setups and hierarchies. The understanding of these
trends is essential to follow up the future structure and organization of the power systems.
Environmental considerations and consequences of power system operation have a great deal of influ-
ence on future plans. Other internal and external factors include market entry of new power system
technologies, efficiency improvements of system components, and introduction of new or renewable
energy sources.
The understanding of all factors that might influence the planning process directly and indirectly is a
prerequisite to guaranteeing a realistic outcome. This understanding provides the guiding principles and
outer boundaries of the concepts and thinking process involved in power system planning.
Chapter 3
Planning Criteria ...................................................................................................................................27
Planning criteria, in general, constitute a set of decision parameters or design variables with which the
planner controls the planning scenarios. These criteria are similar to guiding principles and limitations
placed on the scenarios for the purpose of narrowing down the selection process. Usually these criteria
are defined and set by consensus after careful studies and analyses. Previous practices and experiences
shape and form such planning criteria. However, they need to be revised every now and then in order to
reflect changes in the power system, demand structures, and degree of acceptable risk.
Moreover, planning criteria represent boundary conditions that serve to eliminate unfeasible solutions
and keep only the feasible ones. Therefore, they are needed in expansion studies of power systems to
guarantee that the scenarios selected are all acceptable by the planners. Close coordination and continuous
dialogue among power companies (generation, transmission, and distribution) are strongly recommended
for proper planning in order to meet consumers’ demands and satisfaction.
Usually planning criteria are set by management, although some input from planners is needed. Knowl-
edge of such criteria—and how they are calculated—provides planners with good practices and enhances
the planning process.
Chapter 4
Load Research .......................................................................................................................................47
Load research results provide a valuable input to decision makers in the electricity companies prior
to embarking on any plan, project, or program that touches on the supply of power or power quality
to consumers. The information not only covers technical matters, but also covers socioeconomic and
market information.
With the information collected through load research, electricity companies will be aware and hopefully
knowledgeable in the composition and trends of consumer demands. This essential knowledge will be
the basis for pricing electricity properly and fairly. Moreover, this information forms a good basis for
predicting future demand. Therefore, new expansions, enforcements, and extensions will be affected to
cater to future demand.
Load research data is also useful in the operation and performance of the power system. This informa-
tion will help system operators to take appropriate actions, in cases of emergency, or in normal cases
without adversely affecting the system or customer satisfaction and comfort.
In a load research study the objective is to formulate the load curves of all consumer categories. The
daily load curve is an essential building block for achieving this objective. With information, the power
system planner can perform many important activities and functions within the planning process.
Chapter 5
Electricity Load Forecasting .................................................................................................................61
Forecasting is the backbone of any planning process in all fields of interest. It has a great impact on future
decisions and this is reflected as profits or losses to the institute. This chapter aims to provide the plan-
ning engineer with sufficient knowledge and background of the different scopes of forecasting methods,
in general, and when applied to power system field, in particular. Various load and energy forecasting
models and theoretical techniques are discussed from different perspectives, time frames, and levels.
The mission of any electrical utility/company that operates the power system is to match load with
electric energy supply, in addition to meeting the expected peak load of the power system. Electrical
load forecasting provides input to the rational planning of future resources.
A focus on a practical implemented case study presents an added value for the better appreciation of
this topic.
Chapter 6
Energy Efficiency ..................................................................................................................................82
Energy efficiency involves activities that affect and encourage a drastic change in electricity consumption
by end-users. It also involves the design and manufacture of energy efficient appliances and systems.
Energy efficiency aims at achieving the following goals: 1) buildings are constructed to have efficient
use of energy, 2) appliances are designed and designated as energy efficient, and 3) behavioral changes
to electricity end-users. If all stakeholders shoulder their responsibility then energy efficiency will
achieve its goals.
Energy efficiency reduces consumer bills, cost to utilities, and cost to the national economy. It also
reduces environmental pollution, prolongs the time needed to consume energy resources, and increases
the security of supply.
Energy efficiency is affected through electrical appliances and buildings. In the first category manufac-
turers compete to produce energy efficient appliances. In the latter architects and engineers compete to
build energy efficient homes, schools, shops, malls, etc. A third element is needed to affect energy effi-
ciency. This is that the consumer must be aware of the issue and at the same time willing and motivated
to participate in energy efficiency activities.
Chapter 7
Demand Side Management ...................................................................................................................99
Demand Side Management (DSM) is a term used to describe the activities and ensuing programs that
attempt to affect changes in consumer behavior leading to a reduction in electricity consumption. DSM
comprises any activity or program that is designed within the wider energy efficiency function. The
participants in any DSM program are carefully selected such that their collective response to the pro-
gram results in energy saving or shift in timing of load demand. Therefore, the objective of any DSM
program could be peak load saving or simply shifting in its timing from the peak load period to other
off-peak periods.
The implementation of DSM programs is likely to introduce improvement in the efficiency of power
systems, reduce financial burdens on utilities to build new energy facilities, improve the environmental
situation, and lower the cost of delivered energy to consumers; thus lowering O&M costs as well as
consumer bills, enhance system reliability by reducing power shortages and power cuts, improve the
national economy by improving the value added of the electricity sector, and increase job creation and
new business ventures.