Poverty in Guatemala

287 Pages·2004·2.118 MB·English

by  World Bank

Poverty in Guatemala
A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY
The World Bank
1678-00_FM.qxd 9/28/03 15:49 Page i
A W O R L D B A N K C O U N T R Y S T U D Y
Poverty in Guatemala
THE WORLD BANK
Washington, D.C.
1678-00_FM.qxd 9/28/03 15:49 Page ii
Copyright © 2004
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ISBN: 0-8213-5552-X
eISBN: 0-8213-5553-8
ISSN: 0253-2123
Cover Photo by Ximena Traa.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Poverty in Guatemala.
p. cm.—(A World Bank country study)
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-8213-5552-X
1. Poverty—Guatemala. I. Series.
HC144.Z9P6268 2003
339.4´6´097281—dc21
2003053509
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C
ONTENTS
ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
Context for Report: The GUAPA Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
Objectives of Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
Analytical Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Information Sources: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Overview of the Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
PART 1—THE MAGNITUDE AND CAUSES OF POVERTY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27
2. Poverty and Social Indicators of “The Problem” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
Monetary Indicators of Poverty and Inequality in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30
Non-Monetary Indicators of Poverty and Living Conditions in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . .37
Perceptions of Poverty and Welfare in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
3. The Determinants of Poverty and Inequality: Endowments and
Household Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
The Determinants of Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
The Sources of Inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52
4. Historical and Contextual Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
Diversity, Ethnicity and Isolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56
Exclusionary Forces in Guatemala’s Historical Pattern of Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
Guatemala’s 36-Year Civil War: Significant Costs for Long-Term Development . . . . . . . . .63
The 1996 Peace Accords: Towards a More Inclusive Course of Development . . . . . . . . . .65
PART 2—KEY CHALLENGE: BUILDING OPPORTUNITIES AND ASSETS . . . . . .69
5. Growth and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
Poverty and Growth over Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
Poverty and Growth in the Future: Targets and Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
6. Livelihoods, Labor Markets, and Rural Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79
Incomes and Inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79
Labor Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81
Rural Poverty and Livelihoods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .85
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91
7. Education and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
Sectoral Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
Educational Stock, Coverage and Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
iii
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Internal Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
Disparities in the Quality of Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100
Barriers to Enrollment and Attainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102
The Returns to Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107
Public Spending and Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .108
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .111
8. Health, Malnutrition, and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113
Main Health Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113
A Focus on Malnutrition: A Red Flag! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116
Access to Health Care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119
Supply-Side Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122
Demand-Side Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .129
9. Basic Utility Services and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133
The Benefits of Basic Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133
Sectoral Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134
Access and Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .135
Barriers to Improved Access: Supply vs. Demand-Side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .138
Achieving Universal Coverage: Time and Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .139
Costs and Subsidies for Basic Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142
10. Transport, Poverty, and Isolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145
Access to Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .145
Road Quality and Dependability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .146
Public Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .150
The Effects of Isolation: Limited Access to Services and Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . .151
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152
PART 3—KEY CHALLENGE: REDUCING VULNERABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153
11. Vulnerability and Vulnerable Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .155
Shocks as a Source of Vulnerability in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .156
Vulnerable Groups in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .170
12. Social Protection, Private Transfers, and Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .173
Overview of SP Programs: Types, Magnitudes and Spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .174
Coverage of SP Programs and Private Transfers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .178
Distributional Incidence (Targeting Outcomes) of SP Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .182
Overall Effectiveness of SP Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .186
Impact on Poverty and Inequality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .187
Cost-Benefit Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .188
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .188
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CONTENTS v
PART 4—KEY CHALLENGE: EMPOWERMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .191
13. Building Institutions and Empowering Communities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .193
Public Sector Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .193
Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .198
Community Participation and Social Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .202
Role of Other Actors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .207
Summary of Key Issues and Priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .208
PART 5—CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .209
14. Priority Actions to Reduce Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .211
A Broad Agenda for Poverty Reduction in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .212
Some Progress and Key Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .213
Priority Actions for Poverty Reduction in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215
Priority Target Groups for Poverty Reduction in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .219
Monitoring Poverty Reduction Efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .222
Annexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .227
1. Measuring Consumption Using the ENCOVI 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .229
2. Measuring Income Using the ENCOVI 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .237
3. Measuring Poverty Using the ENCOVI 2000 (Poverty Lines) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .241
4. Statistical Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .253
5. Qualitative Poverty and Exclusion Study (QPES):
Overview of 10 rural villages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .307
6. Supply Versus Demand-Side Constraints to Coverage of Education,
Health and Basic Utility Services: Cluster Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .339
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .343
LIST OF TABLES
A Menu of Options and Key Actions for Poverty Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
B Priority Target Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
2.1 Poverty in Guatemala, 2000—Poverty Indicators by Welfare Measure . . . . . . . . . . .31
2.2 Poverty Patterns in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
2.3 Inequality (Gini coefficients) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
2.4 Trends in the Human Development Index, 1975–97 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
2.5 Perceptions of Welfare from 10 Rural Villages, QPES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40
2.6 Perceptions of Poverty from 10 Rural Villages, QPES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
2.7 Summary Report Card for Monetary and Non-Monetary Indicators of
Poverty and Living Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44
3.1 The Correlates of Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48
3.2 Decomposition of Inequality in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
4.1 Language Ability by Socio-Economic Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58
4.2 Performance of Select Peace Monitoring Indicators—A Snapshot for the
Years 2000, 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67
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5.1 Average Real Growth Rates, 1950s–1990s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72
5.2 Main Macroeconomic Indicators, 1997–2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
5.3 Pro-Poor Growth? The Sectoral Pattern of Employment and
Annual Growth (in %) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
5.4 GDP Growth and Poverty Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
5.5 GDP Growth and Non-Monetary Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76
5.6 Meeting Poverty Strategy and Millennium Targets: Hit or Miss? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76
6.1 Income Sources, by Consumption Quintiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80
6.2 Rural Poverty by Land Status and Main Source of Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86
6.3 Types of Crops Produced, by Type of Household . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .89
7.1 Net Enrollment Rates, by Level and Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97
7.2 The Direct Cost of Schooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106
7.3 Returns to Education, by Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107
7.4 Public Expenditures on Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109
7.5 Distributional Incidence of Public Spending on Education and
Educational Support (Demand-Side) Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110
8.1 International Comparison of Various Health Indicators, 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115
8.2 Decomposition of Coverage Deficit—Access to Health Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121
8.3 Public Spending on Health, 1995–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123
8.4 Distributional Incidence of Public Spending, by Facility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124
8.5 Use of Different Health Facilities by People with Type of Insurance Coverage . . . .124
8.6 Share of Individuals Covered by Health Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125
8.7 Utilization of Health Services by Children with Diarrhea or ARI . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125
8.8 Utilization of Health Services by Individuals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126
8.9 Prenatal Care and Treatment During Delivery, Pregnant Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127
8.10 Average Cost of Prenatal and Delivery Care, by Type of Facility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
9.1 International Comparisons Coverage of Basic Services (Percentage of
Households with Access) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .135
9.2 Coverage of Basic Services, by Area and Quintile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .136
9.3 Probability that an Unserved Household was Connected . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .137
9.4 Coverage Gap for Modern Utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .138
9.5 How far Away is Universal Coverage? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .140
10.1 Access to Roads by Type of Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .148
11.1 Shocks Reported in the QPES: Types of Shocks and Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .159
11.2 Ranking the Severity of Shocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .161
11.3 Shocks for the Rich and Poor? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .162
11.4 Main Coping Strategies, by Wealth Quintiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .162
11.5 Main Coping Strategies and Formal Assistance in 10 Rural Villages . . . . . . . . . . . .163
11.6 Profile of Poverty and Vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .167
12.1 Public Spending on Social Protection, 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .175
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CONTENTS vii
12.2 Overview of Public Social Protection Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .176
12.3 Coverage of Social Protection Programs and Private Transfers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181
12.4 Absolute Target Incidence of Social Protection Programs
and Private Transfers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .184
12.5 Relative Incidence of Social Protection Programs and Private Transfers
(the “importance” of the transfers) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .185
13.1 Public Spending, 1996–2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .195
13.2 Distribution Incidence of Public Spending, by Sector and
Socio-Economic Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .196
13.3 Composite Governance Indicators, International Comparisons, 2001 . . . . . . . . . .198
13.4 Social Capital and External Assistance (Percentage of Total Communities in
ENCOVI Sample) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .206
14.1 Priority Target Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .220
14.2 Menu of Options and Key Actions for Poverty Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .223
LIST OF BOXES
1.1 The MECOVI Program: Filling a Critical Information GAP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
1.2 Analytical Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
2.1 Other Studies and Surveys of Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
2.2 Linguistic Approximations of “Welfare” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
2.3 Definitions of Welfare: Examples from QPES Villages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
2.4 Definitions of Poverty: Examples from QPES Villages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42
4.1 Who is “Indigenous”? A Historical Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
4.2 Life in a Finca Village: the Story of KA1 (QPES) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60
4.3 Rebuilding After the Violence of the 1980s: the Story of K11 (QPES) . . . . . . . . . . .64
6.1 Migration and Livelihoods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82
6.2 Rural Credit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
6.3 Land Redistribution Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87
7.1 The PRONADE Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94
7.2 Schooling in Guatemala: Children’s Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100
7.3 Language, Culture and Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101
8.1 Health and Ethnicity: The need for a Culturally Sensitive Approach . . . . . . . . . . . .129
10.1 Classification of Roads in the ENCOVI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .146
11.1 Disaster Management Programs in Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .158
11.2 Catastrophic Consequences of Hurricane Mitch: the Case of L1 (QPES) . . . . . . . .160
12.1 Access to Market-Based Risk Mitigation Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181
13.1 Internal and External Conflicts: the Case of QE1 (QPES) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .201
13.2 Strong Village Bonds: the Case of MI (QPES) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .203
14.1 Poverty Map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .222
LIST OF FIGURES
2.1 Tentative Trends in Poverty Over Time (1989–2000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
2.2 Poverty Rates by Department . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
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2.3 Inequality: % of Total Consumption Received by each Quintile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
2.4 Inequality—“Jumps”: Ratios Across Quintiles (for consumption) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
2.5 Perceptions of Changes in Household and Community Welfare Over Time . . . . . . .43
5.1 Structure of Growth, 1965–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
5.2 Structure of Economy, 1965–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
6.1 Employment Diversity in the Urban Informal Sector,
% of Informal Sector Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
6.2 Employment Diversity in the Rural Informal Sector,
% of Informal Sector Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
6.3 Evolution of Real Monthly Wages, by Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84
7.1 Poverty, Illiteracy, and Net Primary Enrollment Deficit by Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
7.2 Poverty, Illiteracy, and Net Primary Enrollment Deficit by Ethnicity . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
7.3 Improvements in Literacy, Primary Enrollment Over Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
7.4 Educational Attainment (Stock): Improvements and Closing of Gender,
Poverty, Ethnic Gaps Over Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
7.5 Late Initial Entry in Primary School—% of Students Aged 7–12
Enrolling in First Grade at Age 8+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97
7.6 Primary School Repetition Rates by Grade, Poverty Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98
7.7 Secondary School Repetition Rates by Grade, Poverty Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98
7.8 Supply- vs. Demand-Side Barriers to School Enrollment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103
7.9 Reasons for not Enrolling in Primary School—% of Children Aged 7–12
not Enrolled . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104
7.10 Reasons for not Enrolling in Secondary School—% of Children Aged 13–19
not Enrolled . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105
7.11 Incidence of Public Spending on Primary School: International Comparison . . . . .109
7.12 Incidence of Public Spending on Secondary School: International Comparison . . .111
7.13 Incidence of Public Spending on University: International Comparison . . . . . . . . .111
8.1 Population Structure by Poverty Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114
8.2 Health Indicators by Quintile—% of Children < 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115
8.3 Poverty and Malnutrition by Ethnicity, % of Individuals Below the
Full Poverty Line and % of Children < 5 who are Stunted (HAZ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117
8.4 Poverty and Malnutrition by Region, % of Individuals Below the
Full Poverty Line and % of Children < 5 who are Stunted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117
8.5 Reasons for not Seeking Health Care Treatment when Needed,
% of those who Needed, % of those who did not Seek Treatment
when Ill and Believed Treatment was Necessary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121
8.6 Distributional Incidence of Public Spending on Health,
International Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123
9.1 Social Fund Investment in Rural Infrastructure since 1993 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134
9.2 Coverage of Basic Services by Quintile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .136
9.3 Decomposing the Coverage Deficit: Supply- or Demand-Side Constraints? . . . . . .137
9.4 Household Spending on Basic Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141
9.5 Target Incidence of Electricity Subsidies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141
10.1 Lack of Access to Paved and Motorable (paved + unpaved) Roads, by Quintile . . .146
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CONTENTS ix
10.2 Poverty and Road Access, by Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .146
10.3 Percentage of Population Poor, by Municipio, 2000 Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .147
10.4 Access to Public Transport, % of Households in PSU Sample with Access . . . . . . . .150
10.5 Access to Health Service: Travel Times with and without Access to
Motorable Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .151
10.6 Access to Opportunities: Travel Times with and without Access to
Motorable Roads, Rural Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .151
10.7 Access to Institutions: Travel with and without Access to
Motorable Roads, Rural Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152
11.1 Incidence of Reported Shocks During the Year 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157
11.2 Classification of Poverty and Vulnerability: Transient vs. Chronic? . . . . . . . . . . . . .168
11.3 Risk by Main Age Group, Leading Indicators of Risks,
Uncovered Poor/Vulnerable and Suggested Interventions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .169
12.1 Average Benefit Levels and Dispersion among Social Protection Programs . . . . . . .179
12.2 Average Levels and Dispersion Among Private Transfers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .179
12.3 Coverage of SA Programs by Poverty Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .180
12.4 Duplications and Gaps in Social Risk Management Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . .183
12.5 Effectiveness of Social Protection and Private Transfers in Reducing Poverty . . . . .186
12.6 Effectiveness of Social Assistance in Reducing Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .187
13.1 Estimated Share of Social Fund Spending Received by the Poor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .196
13.2 Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), 1977–98:
LAC and Guatemala . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .198
13.3 Social Capital Participation by Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .205
13.4 Participation in Organizations, by Poverty Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .206
TECHNICAL BACKGROUND PAPERS
Available on the web at http://www.worldbank.org/guatemalapoverty
1. Livelihoods, Labor Markets, and Rural Poverty, by Renos Vakis
2. Education Sector Review, by Maria Elena Anderson
3. Education and Poverty LSMS Analysis, by John Edwards
4. Perceptions of Education (Qualitative Study), by Martha Rodriguez
5. Health and Poverty, by Michele Gragnolati and Alessandra Marini
6. Malnutrition and Poverty, by Alessandra Marini and Michele Gragnolati
7. Poverty and Modern Utility Services, by Vivien Foster and Caridad Araujo
8. Transport and Poverty: A Profile Using Data from the ENCOVI 2000, by Jyotsna Puri
9. Vulnerability and Vulnerable Groups: A Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment,
by Emil Tesliuc and Kathy Lindert
10. Social Protection, Private Transfers and Poverty, by Emil Tesliuc and Kathy Lindert
11. Exclusion and Poverty in Guatemala’s Rural Villages: The Challenge of Tackling
Cumulative Barriers, by Carine Clert and Ana-María Ibáñez
12. Social Capital in Guatemala: A Mixed Methods Analysis, by Ana-María Ibáñez,
Kathy Lindert, and Michael Woolcock
13. Qualitative Poverty and Exclusion Study (QPES), Main Report, by COWI Consulting