Potential Scenarios for a Sustainable Energy System in the Åland Islands in 2030

62 Pages·2016·3.9 MB·English

SCENARIOS FOR A
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEM
IN THE ÅLAND ISLANDS IN 2030
Results of EnergyPLAN modelling
Michael Child, Alexander Nordling &
Christian Breyer
NCE 6th Researchers’ Seminar
August 29, 2016
Agenda
(cid:131) Introduction to study
(cid:131) Main results and interpretation
(cid:131) Questions and discussion
Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the ÅlandIslands in 2030
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Michael Child(cid:377)[email protected]
Relevance of islands in energy system research
(cid:237) Relatively compact geographic locations with homogeneous populations
(cid:237) Components of the energy system tend to be less complex and are more easily
documented than larger continental systems
(cid:237) Generally associated with significant imports of expensive fossil fuels from or power
interconnections with larger continental energy suppliers
(cid:237) Eliminating dependency on imported energy carriers through expanded use of
domestic renewable resources and storage solutions has been suggested as an
alternative for islands around the globe
(cid:237) Islands may also offer potential blueprints for energy system transitions towards
sustainability that will occur on a larger scale with larger continental systems
(cid:237) Island energy systems may encounter shares of RE beyond 50% much sooner in the
future than mainland grids
(cid:237) An attractive new business field for technology providers and start-ups which can
serve as showcases
Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the ÅlandIslands in 2030
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Michael Child(cid:377)[email protected]
Åland Islands
(cid:237) 6,757 islands with a population of 28,983
(cid:237) 60 islands are inhabited and connected by road or ferry
(cid:237) Åland Smart Energy Platform began as a consortium of local stakeholders,
international energy companies, technology providers and research institutes
(cid:237) Goal is to envision and demonstrate how an energy system could enable the delivery
of reliable, affordable, quality energy services which are free of fossil fuels to local
end users
Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the ÅlandIslands in 2030
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Michael Child(cid:377)[email protected]
Current situation (2014)
Energy sale by source 2014 - Total 3300 TJ
(cid:237) Total electricity supply 288.4 GWh
e District heating Gasoline
12 % 16 %
(cid:237) Oil 11.7 GWh
e
(cid:237) Biomass 1 GWh Diesel
e
12 %
(cid:237) Wind 57.4 GWh Electricity
e
32 %
(cid:237) From Sweden 200.7 GWh
e
Heating oil
(cid:237) From Finland 17.6 GWh
e 28 %
Gasoline Diesel Heating oil Electricity District heating
(cid:237) Total heat supply 115 GWh
th
(cid:237) Oil 15 GWh Electricity supply 2014 [GWh] – Total 288
th
GWh
(cid:237) Biomass 100 GWh
th
Wind power 20
Biomass <1%
%
(cid:237) Transport demand 227 GWh
th
(cid:237) Gasoline 129 GWh Oil 4 %
th
Import Finland 6
(cid:237) Diesel 98 GWh
th % Import Sweden
70 %
Import Sweden Import Finland Oil Wind power Bio power
Source: Statistics and Research Åland, “Statistical Yearbook of Åland 2015,” 2015.
Available: http://www.asub.ax/files/statistisk_arsbok_for_aland_2015.pdf.
Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the ÅlandIslands in 2030
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Michael Child(cid:377)[email protected]
Flows of energy - 2014
Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the ÅlandIslands in 2030
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Michael Child(cid:377)[email protected]
Solar PV potential
) 7
d
(cid:476)
² 6
m
h/ 5
W
k 4
(
n 3
o
i
at 2
i
d
a 1
r
r 0
a
ol y y h l y e y t r r r r e
Daily s Januar Februar Marc Apri Ma Jun Jul Augus Septembe Octobe Novembe Decembe al averag
u
n
n
A
Mariehamn Frankfurt Lisbon
(cid:190) Irradiation on optimally tilted
surfaces of 1180 kWh/(m2(cid:195)a)
(cid:190) Yield of 1000 full load hours for
respective solar PV systems
(85% performance ratio)
(cid:190) Potential for 6989 MW ground
p
(cid:190) Potential for 28 MW rooftop
p
Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the ÅlandIslands in 2030
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Michael Child(cid:377)[email protected]
Wind power expansion projects and potential
Långnabba project
(cid:190) Plan for 16 turbines, ~50 MW
(cid:190) Total onshore potential could be
522 MW
Project Östra skärgården
(cid:190) Planned to consist of 35-45
turbines of 3 MW, total ~100 MW.
(cid:190) Connection to the new sea cable
Östra
via station on Sottunga.
skärkården
Långnabba
(cid:190) Total offshore potential could be
4700 MW
RecarbonisedFinnish Energy System
9
Michael Child(cid:377)[email protected]
Biomass and waste potential
(cid:190) Approximately 300 GWh potential from biomass
th
(cid:190) 32,584 tonnes of municipal solid waste (MSW) potential
(cid:190) Equivalent to 181 GWh
th
(cid:190) Shipped to Sweden for waste-to-energy (WTE) conversion
(cid:190) Domestic WTE deemed not profitable
(cid:190) Perhaps 36 GWhe of electricity that comes from Sweden could be classified as
Åland domestic resource?
Scenarios for a sustainable energy system in the ÅlandIslands in 2030
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Michael Child(cid:377)[email protected]