Possibility of a nuclear war in Asia: an Indian perspective PDF
Preview Possibility of a nuclear war in Asia: an Indian perspective
POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR WAR IN ASIA AN INDIAN PERSPECTIVE POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR WAR IN ASIA AN INDIAN PERSPECTIVE By G G Pamidi United Service Institution of India New Delhi Vij Books India Pvt Ltd New Delhi (India) E book published by Vij Multimedia Vij Books India Pvt Ltd (Publishers, Distributors & Importers) 2/19, Ansari Road, Darya Ganj New Delhi - 110002 Phones: 91-11-43596460 Fax: 91-11-47340674 e-mail : [email protected] web: www.vijbooks.com Copyright © 2012, United Service Institution of India, New Delhi ISBN: 978-93-81411-93-3 Price outside India: US $ 65 All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or utilised in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner. Application for such permission should be addressed to the publisher. The views expressed in the book are of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the organization that he belongs to or of the United Service Institution of India. Contents Preface ix Acknowledgements xv 1 Introduction 1 Reality of a Nuclearised Asia 4 Regions for Study 5 Issues for Analysis 10 2 Nuclear Deterrence 15 Salient Aspects of Deterrence Theory 22 Nuclear Deterrence: Balance of Power and Game Theory 23 US Concepts 23 Soviet Nuclear Doctrine 27 3 Doctrinal Aspects: Are Nuclear Weapons Perceived as War Fighting Weapons in Asia? 31 South and North East Asia Unraveling the Dragon: The Evolving Nuclear Doctrine of China 38 The Ambiguous Nuclear Strategy of Pakistan: Rationality 47 or Cultivated Irrationality? Nuclear Strategy of North Korea or Democratic Republic 51 of Korea (DPRK) The Indian Nuclear Doctrine 54 • The Salient Aspects of the Doctrine 55 • Ballistic Missile Defence and its Implications 63 vi Possibility of a Nuclear War in Asia: An Indian Perspective West Asia The Nuclear Strategy of Israel 67 Iran: Justification of the Nuclear Weapon 68 4 Nuclear Thresholds and the Escalatory Ladder 72 The Stability Instability Paradox 76 Perceived Nuclear Threshold of Pakistan 77 Provocation for Use of Nuclear Weapons by China 78 Logic of Use by Israel and North Korea 79 Escalation Dynamics and Terrorism 81 Limited War vis-à-vis Conventional War: The Nuclear 91 Dimensions 5 Nuclear Equations in Asia? 98 South and North East Asia • India -Pakistan Equation 98 • Sino-India Equation 106 • The Sino-Pakistan Nexus 107 • China-US Equation 111 • China -Myanmar Equation 111 West Asia • Israel-Arab Equation 118 • Israel-Iran Equation 119 • Iran-Arab Equation 120 • Impact of Pakistan on West Asia 121 • Emerging Nuclear States in Asia? 122 • The Nuclear Crescent 126 Contents vii 6 Past Crisis and Simulation of Future Conflict Scenarios 136 South and North East Asia • Past Crises 138 • Possible Future Scenarios 149 7 Recommendations to Make the Strategic Environment in Asia More stable 172 • Nuclear Risk Management Measures 172 • Defence as Deterrence and Deterrence as Defence 180 • Work towards the Goals of a NWFW 183 8 Conclusion 203 Bibliography 209 Index 221
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