Population Theories and the Economic Interpretation

208 Pages·2003·11.557 MB·English

by  Sydney H. Coontz

The International Library of Sociology
POPULATION THEORIES
AND THE ECONOMIC
INTERPRETATION
Founded by KARL MANNHEIM
The International Library of Sociology
ECONOMICS AND SOCIETY
In 11 Volumes
I The Danube Basin Bascb
II The Economic Development of
the Middle East BonnP
III Economics of Migration Issac
IV Economy and Society Parsons et al
V The History of Economics Stark
VI The Ideal Foundations of Economic
Thought Stark
VII The Political Element in the Development of
Economic Theory My&l
VIII Population Theories and the Economic
Interpretation Coontz
IX The Social Problems of an
Industrial Civilization Mayo
X Studies in Economic Development Bond
xl Transitional Economic Systems Dough
POPULATION THEORIES
AND THE ECONOMIC
INTERPRETATION
by
SYDNEY H. COONTZ
First published in 1957 by
Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd
Reprinted in 1998 by
Routledge
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE
Printed and bound in Great Britain
0 1957 Routledge & Kegan Paul Ltd
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying
and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without
permission in writing from the publishers. .
The publishers have made every effort to contact authors/copyright holders
of the works reprinted in The Intern&ma1 Library of Sociology.
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welcome correspondence from those individuals/companies
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A CIP catalogue record for this book
is available from the British Library
Population Theories and the Economic Interpretation
ISBN O-415-17531-3
Economics and Society: 11 Volumes
ISBN O-415-17819-3
The International Library of Sociology: 274 Volumes
ISBN O-415-17838-X
CONTENTS
iwe
Preface vii
Introduction I
I. Po/x.dation Theories Since Malthus
I Methodology ‘3
2 Biological Theories 22
3 Cultural Theories 57
4 The Economic Analysis: Classical and Neo-Classical
Theories 83
5 The Economic Analysis Continued: Marxian and
Leninist Influence on Soviet Demography 102
II. The Economic Interpretation
6 The Problem ‘37
7 The Evolution in the Economic Function of the
Family ‘45
8 The Demand for Labour 166
g Summary and Conclusions 188
Index 196

PREFACE
SIN’CE the time of Malthus, few indeed remain indifferent to
the so-called ‘population problem’. Outside the academic sphere
there are those who, on the one hand, still see in population
phenomena the explanation of the existing world distribution
of material goods; and, on the other, those who continue to
believe that essentially the population ‘problem’ is a red herring
invoked, as in the past, to justify the statur quo.
Within academic circles, the situation is much different. Here
a dispassionate attempt is made to understand population
phenomena. Tools of greater precision are devised for the
measurement and ordering of the diversity of demographic
patterns and developments, explanatory hypotheses are tested,
etc. Nevertheless, there is evidence that even in academic
circles, political preconceptions, as well as pure reason, deter-
mine a population ‘attitude’: e.g. upon the publication of the
anti-Malthusian Geography of Hunger by JosuC de Castro, an
important population study centre in the United States pub-
lished in a special issue, which was widely and gratuitously
circulated, an ill-conceived and over-anxious critique of Castro’s
work. It seems clear, then, that there are population attitudes
as well as purely theoretical interests in demography.
A further difficulty encountered in pursuing the study of
demography is the great interest the subject arouses in students
engaged in different lines of academic endeavour. Frequently
biologists, physiologists, sociologists, economists, mathe-
maticians, physicists and philosophers advance a population
theory.
Thus it is that in view of the diversity of thought and the
variety of contributions to population theory, the author is not
entitled to assume that his audience is familiar with the various
hypotheses adduced to explain population dynamics. Hence in
Part I of the book, ‘Population Theories Since Malthus’, the
exposition is burdened, perhaps, by too much detail and docu-
mentation. However, since Part I is not only expository but
polemic, it seemed best to quote extensively.
In Part II, ‘The Economic Interpretation’, the approach
deviates from current thought on labour problems. To me,
labour-power is a commodity and demand for labour governs
supply. Since completing the book it has occurred to me that
Preface
this analysis leads to an important qualification of Marx’s
theory of the declining rate of profit: The economic interpreta-
tion stresses that the commodity, labour-power, increased in
value during the second phase of the industrial revolution, i.e.
that the historic rise in labour’s standard of living reflects the
costs of a more highly skilled, educated and more intensively
utilized labour force. The significance of this development for
population theory is stressed in Part II of the book. However,
concerning Marx’s theory of the falling rate of profit, the
historic rise in the average value of labour-power introduces
another counter-tendency to the rise in the organic composition
of capital.
That is to say, assume with Marx that the rate of exploita-
tion, S/F, is constant. (This is a reasonable first approximation
which is discussed in more detail in Chapter V.) Assume
further, as Marx did, that the technical composition of capital,
C/C + V, rises. It follows that if the value of labour-power is
rising, there exists an important counter-tendency, not empha-
sized by Marx, to the rise in the organic composition of
capital. For C, the congealed or dead labour, is of lower value
than the living labour with which it is combined; or stated
otherwise, living labour’s value is rising relative to C, dead
labour. But this means, ceterisparibus, that the tendency for the
organic composition of capital to rise is countered by the rise
in the value of V.
I am deeply indebted to Professor D. V. Glass and Mr. H. L.
Beales of the London School of Economics. The interest, advice,
and generous disposal of their time facilitated and made
pleasurable a project which might otherwise have proved
onerous. Further, it was largely throughthe sustained interest
of Professor Glass that the work now appears in print.
My friend, William Blake, also gave unstintingly of his time.
His encyclopaedic knowledge, excellent judgment, and enthusi-
astic interest contributed greatly to improving the content and
form of the work.
Finally, my wife, Patricia Coontz, made a number ofvaluable
suggestions for improvements as well as carrying on with the
burdensome detail preparatory to publication.
SYDNEY H. COONTZ
December 1956
State Univers+v College of Forestry
at Syranrse University
Spacuse IO, New York
INTRODUCTION
THE preliminary stage of any scientific inquiry is the collection
and classification of data. Through classification differing
phenomena are separately examined and their peculiarities
observed. Further investigation often reveals unsuspected
similarities and significant relations between phenomena
originally considered quite dissimilar and autonomous.
Again, differences emerge which were not apparent at
first.
But, as Thorstein Veblen long ago emphasized, the aim of
science is to pass beyond the taxonomic level.’ Questions arise
as to the origin, evolution and future development of the
phenomena under investigation. Explanatory hypotheses are
formulated and their validity tested. The criteria of validity
are correspondence with observed fact, coherence, and success-
ful prediction. Further, on the principle of Occam’s Razor,
that hypothesis is preferable which makes the least number of
assumptions, other things being equal.
The practical accomplishments of investigators in the natural
sciences such as astronomy, chemistry, and physics account
for their prestige. To predict an eclipse, or construct an atomic
bomb, is dramatic evidence of the success of the pursuit.
Unfortunately, however, social scientists do not command the
same prestige. Difficulty of prediction is encountered not only
from the extreme heterogeneity of the data but, also, because
the phenomena under investigation are more dynamic. Ob-
served uniformities are relatively less frequent, and where they
appear there is no guarantee that they will continue. Thus it is
1 Cf. e.g. ‘Why is Economics not an Evolutionary Science’, The Quart&y
,3ournalof Economics, July 1898; ‘Professor Clark’s EconomiCs’, ibid., February
I 908, and other essays reprinted in 77~ Place of Science in Modem Civilisation
New York, 1932.
I
Introduction
possible to discover a pattern or trend in social phenomena,
the extrapolation of which yields fruitful results, but at other
times, however, extrapolation leads to disaster. The trend
is reversed and continuity of development is apparently
destroyed.
A strictly empirical approach, then, is especially vulnerable.
Actually, it may be objected, such an approach is impossible
since, as Immanuel Kant long ago pointed out, we do seem
compelled to devise theoretical explanations. Nevertheless, the
distinction between a purely empirical approach and an
approach within an adequately conceived theoretical frame-
work is of value. It sounds a warning bell, viz. that the mere
continuation of a trend should afford small ground for com-
placency if we have failed to provide an adequate theory to
explain the phenomenon. Rather, we should increase our
efforts to understand its nature and function. Otherwise there
is always the possibility that ‘we’ll awake one morning to find
it gone’.
Such, indeed, has been the case for demography in regard to
the anticipated fertility decline. The shock administered to the
science of demography by the recent reversal of the downward
trend of the birth rate is evident from the following quotations:
as late as 1946, it was stated that ‘With improved data, new
techniques, and the precise measurement of the demographic
transition that was occurring, demography tended to become
science rather than literature’.l However, by rg4g we are told:
Population study has developed no conceptual framework for
investigating short-run variations in marital and childbearing pat-
terns. In addition, theoretical consideration of the long-run, as
distinguished from the short-run, aspects of population change is
likely to be an increasingly important prerequisite to the refinement
of future empirical research.2
The inadequacy of the ‘conceptual framework’ is strikingly
evident when we consider the European and American popu-
lation projections of the past two decades. However, prior
1 Irene Taeuber, ‘Population Studies in the United States’, Pofnhfion
h&x, October 1946, p. 254.
z George J. Stolnitz and Norman B. Ryder, ‘Recent Discussion of the Net
Reproduction Rate’, Population Index, April 1949, p. 124.
2