Population projections for Alberta and its health regions, 1996-2016

52 Pages·1998·5.4 MB·English

by  Alberta. Health Surveillance

Digitized by tine Internet Archive
in 2015
https://arcliive.org/details/populationprojecOOalbe
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HEALTH
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Population Projeptions for Alberta and its IHealtli
Regions: 1996-2<}16
For more information contact:
Health Surveillance
Alberta Health
P.O. Box 1360
1 0025 Jasper Avenue
Edmonton, Alberta
T5J 2P4
Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
ISBN (0-7785-0057-8)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Population projections for Alberta and its 17 health regions (1996 boundaries) were
developed for the years 1996 to 2016. For the first time the Alberta Health Care
Insurance Plan (AHCIP) Registry File was used to generate a base population.
Population projections were developed using the component method which combines
analyses of mortality, fertility and migration. Three fertility, one mortality and three
migration projections were considered resulting in nine scenarios. For practical
purposes, this report provides the projection results for a single scenario, the
combination of medium mortality, medium fertility and high migration projections.
Under this scenario, the Alberta population will show a 1 .6% growth rate per annum
during the projection period. Although all regional populations follow the provincial
pattern, the average annual growth rate will differ across regions with a projected range
of 0.4% to 4.1%. The Alberta age structure will change considerably over the next 20
years. Specifically, the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 will decrease and the
proportion of elderly will increase.
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Acknowledgments
This final report was prepared by Yan Jin and Donald Schopflocher on behalf of the
project team listed below:
Alberta Health
Dr. D. Schopflocher Biostatistician
Y. Jin Demographer
University of Alberta
Dr. N.M. Lalu Population Research Laboratory
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Acknowledgments 4
Table of Contents 5
List of Figures 6
I. I NTRODUCTION 7
II. DATA AND METHODS 7
Data 7
Projection Method 7
Base Population 8
Fertility 9
Mortality 11
Migration 13
III. RESULTS 15
IV. USING POPULATION PROJECTIONS 18
Glossary 20
References 21
Appendix Tables 22
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List of Figures
Figure 1 : R atios of Statistics Canada Estimates
to AHCIP Registry Population* in 1996 9
Figure 2: Observed and Projected Total Fertility Rates for Alberta: 1986-2016 10
Figure 3: Observed and Projected Mean Age of Fertility for Alberta: 1986-2016 10
Figure 4: Life Expectancies by Sex for Alberta 1 986-1 996 11
Figure 5: Projected Life Expectancy by Sex for Alberta 12
Figure 6: Alberta Net Migration: 1976 - 1996* 13
Figure 7: Projected Alberta Net Migration 14
Figure 8: Unemployment for Canada, Alberta, Calgary, and Edmonton .14
Figure 9: Age Dependency Ratios for Alberta: 1996 - 2 016 ....17
Figure 10: Median Age of Alberta Population from 1996 to 2016 17
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