Population of Central and Eastern Europe : challenges and opportunities

734 Pages·2003·7.627 MB·English

by  Jozwiak, Janina, Kotowska, Irena E.

European Population Conference
Warsaw, 26-30 August 2003
Population of Central and Eastern Europe.
Challenges and Opportunities
edited by
Irena E. Kotowska and Janina Jóźwiak
Statistical Publishing Establishment
Warsaw 2003
Cover design: Fortis
www.fortis.pl
Editorial team
at the Institute of Statistics and Demography,
Warsaw School of Economics
English editing:
Paul V. Smith, Anna Matysiak, Magdalena Muszyńska
Text design, typesetting, and CD preparation:
Anita Abramowska, Andrzej Kwiatkowski, Milena Marks,
Anna Matysiak, Magdalena Muszyńska, Robert Serek,
Paweł Strzelecki
Preface
Since the fall of the “iron curtain” Central and Eastern Europe has
witnessed profound and rapid changes in many respects. The most
important are: transformation of economic system towards market
economy, implementation of fully democratic political system and
creation of a civic society. Unquestionably, this transition of the CEE
countries towards European standards of social and economic
developments is a very favourable trend. However, the speed and depth of
these changes caused in societies of the CEE region the so called “social
trauma” with all its positive and negative effects.
This reaction to the social and economic transformation is related to the
appearance of more uncertainties in individual life, more responsibility for
individual careers, more space for individual decisions, etc. Consequently,
the transformation has brought about significant shift in individual’s
behaviour. Changes in demographic processes reflect this shift.
Obviously, the course of demographic processes in various countries of
the CEE region is far from homogeneity. However, one can observe
several common patterns. First of all, these are: a dramatic decline in
fertility, which is much faster and steeper than in Western European
countries, significant increase in proportion of extra marital births,
decreasing propensity to marry, growing mean age at marriage and birth
(and, in general, changes in distributions of age-specific rates), etc.
Besides, positive developments in mortality have been observed in some
countries, while others experienced worsening. What is also characteristic
for populations of the CEE countries is the high sensitivity of
demographic behaviour to economic factors.
A discussion has been taking place: whether the demographic changes in
the CEE can be placed within the framework of the second demographic
transition or they rather seem to be similar, but the underlying factors and
mechanisms that launched the transition are different; whether the
changes reflect a discontinuity of demographic processes or rather they
continue previous trends which have been accelerated by transformation
processes.
Taking the opportunity of the fact that the European Population
Conference 2003 will be held in Poland and in the CEE region (first time
in the twenty-year EAPS history) we decided to devote the pre-conference
publication to demographic problems of Central and Eastern European
countries.
The papers prepared by the authors from both East and West of Europe
cover description and explanation of the course of demographic processes
in the CEE countries from different perspectives and in different context.
We believe that the studies presentedin the book will help to better
understanding both the demographic changes and underlying factors in
Central and Eastern Europe. Moreover, we hope that this book will enable
to identify challenges for future demographic developments of Europe and
to become conscious of opportunities associated with it.
Janina Jóźwiak, Irena Elżbieta Kotowska
CONTENTS
____________________________________________________________________
Contributors
Introduction
The population of Europe: the present and the future
Zbigniew Strzelecki 23
Population trends in Central and Eastern Europe – an overview
Heinz Fassman, Rainer Münz 25
Part I Fertility change
Fertility and fertility regulation in Eastern Europe:
from the socialist to the post-socialist era
Miroslav Macura, Alphonse L.MacDonald 35
Fertility trends and prospects in Central and Eastern Europe:
the cohort perspective
Tomas Frejka, Jean-Paul Sardon 91
Post-transitional fertility development: new perspectives
introduced by Central and East European nations
Kalev Katus 117
On the way to one-child life: are we beyond the point of no return?
Some considerations concerning the fertility decrease in Russia
Alexandre Avdeev 139
Fertility preferences versus actual behaviour in Hungary
Ferenc Kamarás 165
Another way of describing the development of fertility and
what emerges from this for Europe
Felix Koschin 189
Part II Living arrangements and changing structures
Mutual relationships between education and women’s entry
into a first union: the case of Central and Eastern Europe
Francesco C. Billari, Dimiter Philipov 201
Gendering family formation. First marriage and first birth
in Hungary and Poland
Livia Sz. Olah, Ewa Frątczak 219
Changing living arrangements in Hungary and the Netherlands:
Older adults in one- and in two-person households, 1990-2001
Jenny de Jong Gierveld 251
Measuring population perspectives in Europe
László Hablicsek 267
Long-term consequences of stabilisation of reproductive
behaviour during socio-economic transition in Poland
Jolanta Kurkiewicz 283
Part III Health, morbidity and mortality
Health and death in the Baltic States
Catherine Gaumé, Guillaume Wunsch 301
Some aspects of reproductive health in Hungary
Catherine Gourbin, Eva Gardos 327
Deviation from epidemiological transition. The case of Hungary
Etelka Daróczi 351
Mortality and health during the transition to a market economy
in Latvia
Juris Krumins 369
Causes of death in Russia: assessing trends since the 1950s
France Meslé, Jacques Vallin, Veronique Hertrich,
Evgueni Andreev, Vladimir Shkolnikov 389
Part IV Population and economy
Central and Eastern European countries and the new reality
of European international migration
Corrado Bonifazi 415
Labour market and demographic processes – some remarks
on a new perspective needed
Irena E. Kotowska 441
Fertility behaviour in a period of economic pressures and
growing opportunities – Hungary, the 1990s
Zsolt Spéder 457
Demographic determinants of the labour market in Poland
Janusz Witkowski 485
Démographie de la pauvreté : la Russie des années 90
Patrick Festy, Irina Kortchaguina, Lilia Ovtcharova,
Lidia Prokofieva 503
The economy and demographic pressure
Stanisława Borkowska 529
Poland and Ukraine: demographic consequences of two ways
of come-back from the communism
Jan Paradysz 543
Part V Population policies
Impact of transition on family policy
Nada Stropnik 559
Family policy in Lithuania: assessments and needs
Vlada Stankuniene 597
Family policy in Poland at the turn of the century
Bożena Balcerzak-Paradowska 617
Part VI Population and societal change
Demographies in transition’: an essay on continuity and
discontinuity in value change
Dirk van de Kaa 641
Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change
Dimiter Philipov 665
Understanding lower and later fertility in Central and
Eastern Europe
Tomáš Sobotka 691
CONTRIBUTORS
Andreev Evgueni CDHE, RUSSIA
Avdeev Alexandre Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research /
Moscow State University, GERMANY
Balcerzak–Paradowska Bożena Institute for Labour and Social Studies, POLAND
Billari Francesco IMQ-Università Bocconi, ITALY
Bonifazi Corrado Institute for Population Research, ITALY
Borkowska Stanisława Institute of Labour and Social Affairs, POLAND
Daróczi Etelka HCSO Demographic Research Institute, HUNGARY
Fassmann Heinz Angewandte Geographie, Raumforschung und
Raumordnung Universität Wien, AUSTRIA
Festy Patrick Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, FRANCE
Frątczak Ewa Institute of Statistics and Demography,
Warsaw School of Economics, POLAND
Frejka Tomas Independent consultant, USA
Gárdos Eva Hungarian Central Statistical Office, HUNGARY
Gaumé Catherine Institut de Demographie, Université de Louvain,
BELGIUM
Gierveld Jenny de Jong Netherlands Institute for Advanced Studies (NIAS),
NETHERLANDS
Gourbin Catherine Institute of Demography, University of Louvain,
BELGIUM
Hablicsek László HCSO Demographic Research Institute, HUNGARY
Hertrich Véronique Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, FRANCE
Jóźwiak Janina Institute of Statistics and Demography,
Warsaw School of Economics, POLAND
Kamarás Ferenc Hungarian Central Statistical Office, HUNGARY
Katus Kalev Estonian Interuniversity, Population Research Centre,
ESTONIA
Kortchaguina Irina Institut des problèmes socio-économiques de
population, RUSSIE
Koschin Felix University of Economics, Department of
Demography, CZECH REPUBLIC
Kotowska Irena Elżbieta Institute of Statistics and Demography,
Warsaw School of Economics, POLAND
Krumins Juris University of Latvia, LATVIA
Kurkiewicz Jolanta Cracow University of Economics, POLAND
MacDonald Alphonse L. United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,
SWITZERLAND
Macura Miroslav United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,
SWITZERLAND
Meslé France Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, FRANCE
Münz Rainer Department of Demography, Humboldt University,
GERMANY
Oláh Livia Sz. Department of Sociology, Stockholm University,
SWEDEN
Ovtcharova Lilia Institut des problèmes socio-économiques de
population, Académie des Sciences, RUSSIE
Paradysz Jan Academy of Economics, Department of Statistics,
POLAND
Philipov Dimiter Research Group on Comparative European
Demography, Vienna Institute of Demography,
AUSTRIA
Prokofieva Lidia Institut des problèmes socio-économiques de
population, Académie des Sciences, RUSSIE
Sardon Jean-Paul Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, FRANCE
Shkolnikov Vladimir Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research,
GERMANY
Sobotka Tomas Population Research Centre, University of Groningen,
NETHERLANDS
Spéder Zsolt HCSO, Demographic Research Institute, HUNGARY
Stankuniene Vladislava Institute for Social Research, LITHUANIA
Stropnik Nada Institute for Economic Research, SLOVENIA
Strzelecki Zbigniew Government Centre for Strategic Studies, POLAND
Vallin Jacques INED, FRANCE
Van de Kaa Dirk J. Honorary Fellow, Netherlands Interdisciplinary
Demographic Institute (NIDI), NETHERLANDS
Witkowski Janusz Warsaw School of Economics, Institute of Statistics
and Demography, POLAND
Wunsch Guillaume Institut de Demographie, Université de Louvain,
BELGIUM