Population Change and the Economy: Social Science Theories and Models

275 Pages·1985·4.298 MB·English

by  Andrew Isserman (auth.), Andrew M. Isserman (eds.)

Population Change and the Economy:
Social Science Theories and Models
Population Change and the Economy:
Social Science Theories and Models
edited by
Andrew M. Isserman
Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing
a member of the Kluwer Academic Publishers Group
Boston/DordrechtiLancaster
Distributors
for the United States and Canada: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 190 Old Derby Street, Hingham, MA,
02043, USA
for the UK and Ireland: Kluwer Academic Publishers, MTP Press Limited, Falcon House, Queen Square,
Lancaster LAI IRN, UK
for a/l other countries: Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, Distribution Centre, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH
Dordrecht, The Netherlands
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Main entry under tttle:
Population change and the economy: social science theories and models
Bibliography: p.
Contents: Forecasting birth and migration rates I
Andrew Isserman-Forecasting regional births I Dennis
Ahlburg-forecasting interregional migration I Jacques
Ledent-[etc.]
1. Population-Economic aspects-Mathematical models
Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Population forecasting
Mathematical models-Addresses, essays, lectures.
\. Isserman, Andrew M.
HB849.41.P67 1985 304.6'2 84-20188
ISBN-I 3: 978-94-010-8704-9 e-ISBN-I 3: 978-94-009-4980-5
001: 10. I 007/978-94-009-4980-5
Copyright C 1986 by Kluwer-Nijhofl Publishing
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1986
No part of this book may be produced in any form by print, photoprint, microfilm, or any other means without
written permission of the publisher.
Contents
Preface ix
I ntrod uction xiii
Economic Determinants of Fertility and Migration Rates 1
1
Forecasting Birth and Migration Rates: The Theoretical Foundation 3
Andrew Isserman
2
Forecasting Regional Births: An Economic-Demographic Approach 31
Dennis Ahlburg
3
Forecasting Interregional Migration: An Economic
Demographic Approach 53
Jacques Ledent
II
Regional Economic-Demographic Modeling 79
4
Economic-Demographic Interactions in the Growth of Texas 81
Thomas Plaut
5
An Econometric-Demographic Model of New York State 105
Carol Greenberg and Charles Renfro
v
vi CONTENTS
6
The Effects of Refining Demographic-Economic
Interactions in Regional Econometric Models 127
Carol Taylor
III
Interregional Economic-Demographic Modeling 157
7
Economic-Demographic Linkages in an Interregional Model 159
Walter Isard and Christine Smith
8
Multistate Demoeconomic Modeling and Projection 177
Andrei Rogers and Pamela Williams
9
The ECESIS Economic-Demographic Model of the United States 203
Paul Beaumont, Andrew Isserman, David McMillen, David Plane,
and Peter Rogerson
IV
The Challenges Ahead 239
10
Regional Economic-Demographic Modeling:
Progress and Prospects 241
Jeffrey Williamson
11
Intuition, SCience, and the Application of Regional Models 261
William Alonso
Contributing Authors
Dennis Ahlburg, Assistant Professor of Industrial Relations, University of
Minnesota, USA
William Alonso, Saltonstall Professor of Population Policy and Chairman,
Department of Sociology, Harvard University, USA
Paul Beaumont, Assistant Professor of Economics, Purdue University,
and Research Assistant Professor, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia
University, USA
Carol Greenberg, Regional Economist, Chase Econometrics, USA
Walter Isard, Professor of Economics, Regional Science, and Urban and
Regional Studies, Cornell University, and Adjunct Professor of Regional
Science, University of Pennsylvania, USA
Andrew Isserman, Director of the Regional Research Institute and Professor
of Economics and Geography, West Virginia University, USA
Jacques Ledent, Professor, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique
Urbanisation, Universite de Quebec, Canada
David McMillen, Mathematical Statistician, U.S. Bureau of the Census,
USA
David Plane, Assistant Professor of Geography and Regional Development,
University of Arizona, USA
Thomas Plaut, Economist, Bureau of Business Research, University of Texas
at Austin, USA
Charles Renfro, Chief Economist, C.A. Renfro Associates, USA
Andrei Rogers, Director of the Population Program, Institute of Behavioral
Science, and Professor of Geography, University of Colorado at Boulder,
USA
vii
viii CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS
Peter Rogerson, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering and Geography,
Northwestern University, USA
Christine Smith, Lecturer in Economics, University of Wollongong, Australia
Carol Taylor, Program Director for Forecasting, Bureau of Economic and
Business Research, and Associate Professor of Economics, University of
Florida, USA
Pamela Williams, Policy Analyst, Department of the Premier and Cabinet,
Melbourne, Australia
Jeffrey Williamson, Laird Bell Professor of Economics, Harvard University,
USA
Preface
Population change and population forecasts are receiving considerable
attention from governmental planners and policy-makers, as well as from
the private sector. Old patterns of population redistribution, industrial
location, labor-force participation, household formation, and fertility are
changing. The resulting uncertainty has increased interest in forecasting
because mere extrapolations of past trends are proving inadequate. In the
United States of America popUlation forecasts received even more attention
after federal agencies began distributing funds for capital infrastructure to
state and local governments on the basis of projected future populations. If
the national government had based those funding decisions on locally
prepared projections, the optimism of local officials would have resulted in
billions of dollars worth of excess capacity in sewage treatment plants
alone. Cabinet-level inquiries concluded that the U.S. Department of
Commerce should (1) assume the responsibility for developing a single set
of projections for use whenever future population was a consideration in
federal spending decisions and (2) develop methods which incorporate both
economic and demographic factors causing population change. Neither the
projections prepared by economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis
nor those prepared by demographers at the Bureau of the Census were
considered satisfactory because neither method adequately recognized the
intertwined nature of demographic and economic change.
Against this background, the American Statistical Association (ASA)
and the U.S. Bureau ofthe Census, with support from the National Science
Foundation (NSF), jointly convened the International Conference on
Forecasting Regional Population Change and Its Economic Determinants
and Consequences. Participants included leading scholars from Europe,
Japan, Australia, and North America, from universities, governmental
ix
x PREFACE
agencies, international organizations, corporations, and consulting flrms.
They included demographers, economists, geographers, regional scientists,
sociologists, and statisticians. This conference, held in Airlie, Virginia, May
26-29, 1982, was part of a larger ASNCensus program also supported by
NSF that included a three-year effort (1979-82) to build ECESIS, an
operational interregional economic-demographic model described else-
where in this book, and an initial fact-flnding conference in 1977. That
conference had concluded:
Population projections and migration modeling are, in fact, among the important
contemporary concerns in establishing and maintaining an adequate data base
for informed planning and programs administration.
The rapid development of the fleld of economic-demographic population
modeling is evident when comparing the papers from the flrst conference
(available from ASA) to those of the second conference only flve years
later. The papers at the second conference generally were of four kinds: (1)
studies of internal migration that help us understand better the nature of the
phenomenon being forecast; (2) evaluations of the data available for
population modeling; (3) descriptions of economic-demographic models
which reflect the emerging state of the art; and (4) essays regarding the
state of the art and prospects for its improvements. The chapters of this
book generally are revised and extended versions of papers from the third
and fourth groups.
Other papers from the conference and ECESIS project are found either
in the Review of Public Data Use, Vol. 10, No.4, and Vol. 11, No.1,
published by Elsevier-North Holland or in a special issue of Socio
Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 5-6, published by Pergamon
Press under the title "Forecasting Population Change and its Economic
Determinants and Consequences." The issues of the Review ofP ublic Data
Use include papers on migration data by Richard Bilsborrow and John
Akin, Douglas Norris, and Andrew Isserman, David Plane, and David
McMillen and comments by Richard Morrill and Robert Nakosteen.
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences contains papers on migration by Anne
van der Veen and Gerard Evers, David Plane and Andrew Isserman,
Matthew Black, John Long, Anthony Warnes, and Curtis Roseman, and
on forecasting models by Peter Batey and Moss Madden, Takao Fukuchi,
Masahiro Chuma, and Makoto Yamaguchi, Richard Joun and Richard
Conway, Anthony Redwood, Steven Caldwell, and Peter Rogerson. In
addition, parts of Chapter 1 of this book appear in Environment and
Planning A, Vol. 17, No.1, published by Pion.
PREFACE xi
Helpful comments by the discussants and moderators at the conference
are gratefuliy acknowledged. They include (in order of appearance): Ray
Grimes, Donald Pittenger, William Milne, James Kau, Swarnjit Arora, Uwe
Schubert, Roger Bolton, Norfleet Rives, Shelby Gerking, Peter Morrison,
Richard Morrill, Robert Nakosteen, Richard Engels, Signe Wetrogen,
David Gleave, Frank Poreli, AI Telia, Anthony Yezer, Ann Miller, Calvin
Beale, Larry Long, Michael Greenwood, Thomas Espenshade, Mark
Rosenzweig, Jacob Siegel, William Beyers, Roger Herriot, Ken Johnson,
John Long, and Shirly Goetz.
Fred Leone, Ede Denenberg, George Tiao, and Arnold Zellner of ASA,
Murray Aborn of NSF, and Barbara Bailar, Richard Engels, Roger
Herriot, AI Telia, and Kirk Wolter of the U.S. Bureau of the Census gave
their strong support to this conference and the ECESIS project. Without
their vision and dedication this rather remarkable conference and ASA/
Census program would not have taken place.