population aging, human capital accumulation, and productivity growth

337 Pages·2014·9.38 MB·English

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Alexia Prskawetz
David E. Bloom
Wolfgang Lutz
Editors
Population Aging,
Human Capital
Accumulation,
and
Productivity Growth
A Supplement to Vol. 34, 2008
POPULATION
AND
DEVELOPMENT
REVIEW
Population and Development Review seeks to
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POPULATION AGING, HUMAN
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION,
AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
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POPULATION AGING,
HUMAN CAPITAL
ACCUMULATION, AND
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
Alexia Prskawetz
David E. Bloom
Wolfgang Lutz
Editors
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW
A Supplement to Volume 34, 2008
POPULATION COUNCIL
New York
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©2008 by The Population Council, Inc. All rights reserved.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Population aging, human capital accumulation, and productivity growth / Alexia
Prskawetz, David E. Bloom, Wolfgang Lutz, editors.
p. cm.
Based on a symposium co-sponsored by the European Union and the Vienna
Institute of Demography.
“Population and development review, a supplement to volume 34, 2008.”
ISBN 978-0-87834-116-0 (pbk)
1. Population aging--Case studies. 2. Saving and investment--Case studies.
3. Industrial productivity--Case studies. I. Prskawetz, Alexia. II. Bloom,
David E. (David Elliot), 1955- III. Lutz, Wolfgang. IV. Population Council. V.
Population and development review ; vol. 34, 2008 (Supplement)
HQ1061.P663 2008
338.4’5--dc22
2008061101
ISSN 0098-7921
ISBN 978-0-87834-116-0
Printed in the United States of America.
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments vii
Introduction 3
DAVID E. BLOOM
WOLFGANG LUTZ
ALEXIA PRSKAWETZ
PART I. THE ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE
OF GLOBAL AGING
Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and
Economic Significance 17
DAVID E. BLOOM
DAVID CANNING
The Impact of Global Aging on Labor, Product, and
Capital Markets 52
AXEL H. BÖRSCH-SUPAN
Aggregate Evidence on the Link Between Age Structure
and Productivity 78
JAMES FEYRER
PART II. THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL
ACCUMULATION IN ECONOMIC GROWTH
Declining Mortality Among British Scientists During the
Age of Enlightenment 103
RYAN D. EDWARDS
Demographic, Economic, and Institutional Factors in the
Transition to Modern Growth in England: 1530–1860 126
RAOUF BOUCEKKINE
DAVID DE LA CROIX
DOMINIQUE PEETERS
The Population Dynamics of Human Capital Accumulation 149
WOLFGANG LUTZ
ANNE GOUJON
ANNABABETTE WILS
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PART III. PRODUCTIVITY STUDIES AT
VARIOUS LEVELS OF ANALYSIS
Age and Productivity Potential: A New Approach Based on
Ability Levels and Industry-Wide Task Demand 191
VEGARD SKIRBEKK
Charting the Economic Life Cycle 208
RONALD LEE
SANG-HYOP LEE
ANDREW MASON
Productivity Consequences of Workforce Aging:
Stagnation or Horndal Effect? 238
BO MALMBERG
THOMAS LINDH
MAX HALVARSSON
Older Workers and National Productivity in Japan 257
ROBERT L. CLARK
NAOHIRO OGAWA
SANG-HYOP LEE
RIKIYA MATSUKURA
Growth Effects of Age-Related Productivity Differentials
in an Aging Society: A Simulation Study for Austria 275
HELMUT HOFER
THOMAS URL
Workforce Aging and Labor Productivity: The Role of
Supply and Demand for Labor in the G7 Countries 298
ALEXIA PRSKAWETZ
THOMAS FENT
ROSS GUEST
AUTHORS 325
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This volume grows out of a symposium on “Population Aging and Economic
Productivity” held within the framework of the Macro-Demographic Working
Group, which comprises the following five institutes: The Institute for Futures
Studies (Stockholm), The East-West Center (Honolulu), the Vienna Institute
of Demography (Vienna), the Program on the Global Demography of Aging
(PGDA), Harvard University (Cambridge), and Nihon University (Tokyo). The
conference was co-sponsored by the European Union, via the Research Training
Network on “Demographic Sustainability and European Integration,” and the
Vienna Institute of Demography.
Publication of this volume was made possible by support from The East-
West Center (US National Institute on Aging Grant #3 R01 AG025488-02S1 from
the National Institutes of Health (NIH)), the PGDA, Harvard University (Grant
#5 P30 AG024409 from NIA, NIH), the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur
Foundation, the Vienna Institute of Demography, and the International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The contents of the volume are solely the
responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views
of the NIH or any other donor.
We extend our thanks to Guenther Fink, Jocelyn Finlay, Larry Rosenberg,
and the staff of Population and Development Review for their assistance in produc-
ing this volume.
A.P.
D.E.B.
W.L.
vii
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