Politics of Democratic Breakdown Democratic breakdown as a political and historic event can impact the fate of millions, if not hundreds of millions of people, by changing the political complexion of a country. This book attempts to systematically explain why democracies collapse. The author’s main theoretical argument is based on the examination of two factors. One is political cleavages among voters. These can cause serious political conflicts and may lead to fierce political confrontation and major upheaval at the society level. The other revolves around the types of political and institutional arrangements under democratic regimes. Centrifugal demo cratic regimes are likely to weaken government capacity or state capacity, rendering governments incapable of effectively resolving political conflicts and, when these two factors come together, political conflicts are less likely to be controlled effectively. These situations can evolve into serious political crises and eventually lead to the collapse of democratic regimes. The empir ical research of this book is based on a comparative historical analysis of Germany, Nigeria, Chile, and India. Examining democratic collapses from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, this book will be of interest to those engaged in the study of democracy, Political Science, Comparative Politics, and Political Theory. Gangsheng Bao is a Professor of Political Science at the School of Interna tional Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, China. He earned his PhD in Political Science from Peking University (2012) and was a visiting scholar at the Department of Government, Harvard University (academic year 2019–2 020). He focuses on political theory and comparative politics; his other work includes The Logic of Democracy (2018). Dr. Bao’s online course “30 Lectures on Politics” has more than 38,000 students. His book was named the “Best Social Science Book of the Year 2014” by The Beijing News, and he was recognized as the “Best Author of the Year 2018” by The Economic Observer. China Perspectives The China Perspectives series focuses on translating and publishing works by leading Chinese scholars, writing about both global topics and China related themes. It covers Humanities & Social Sciences, Education, Media and Psychology, as well as many interdisciplinary themes. This is the first time any of these books have been published in English for international readers. The series aims to put forward a Chinese perspec tive, give insights into cutting edge academic thinking in China, and inspire researchers globally. To submit proposals, please contact the Taylor & Francis Publisher for the China Publishing Programme, Lian Sun ([email protected]) Recent titles in politics partly include: The Routledge Handbook of Chinese Citizenship Edited by Zhonghua Guo The Transformation of American Political Culture and the Impact on Foreign Strategy Pan Yaling China and Africa in Global Context Encounters, Policy, Cooperation and Migration Li Anshan China and the Pursuit of Harmony in World Politics Understanding Chinese International Relations Theory Adam Grydehøj and Ping Su Politics of Democratic Breakdown Gangsheng Bao For more information, please visit www.routledge.com/ China Perspectives/ book series/ CPH Politics of Democratic Breakdown Gangsheng Bao First published 2022 by Routledge 4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2022 Gangsheng Bao The right of Gangsheng Bao to be identified as author of this work has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing- in- Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Bao, Gangsheng, author. Title: Politics of democratic breakdown / Gangsheng Bao. Other titles: Min zhu beng kui de zheng zhi xue. English Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2022. | Series: China perspectives | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2021057007 (print) | LCCN 2021057008 (ebook) | ISBN 9781032265865 (hardback) | ISBN 9781032266169 (paperback) | ISBN 9781003289098 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Democracy. | New democracies. | Political stability. | New democracies–Case studies. | Political stability–Case studies. Classification: LCC JC423 .B234713 2022 (print) | LCC JC423 (ebook) | DDC 321.8–dc23/eng/20220125 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021057007 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021057008 ISBN: 978 1 032 26586 5 (hbk) ISBN: 978 1 032 26616 9 (pbk) ISBN: 978 1 003 28909 8 (ebk) DOI: 10.4324/9781003289098 Typeset in Times New Roman by Newgen Publishing UK Contents List of Figures vii List of Tables viii Preface xi PART I Theory of Democratic Breakdown 1 1 Introduction: A New Explanation of Democratic Breakdown 3 2 The Logic of Political Cleavages 47 3 Political Institutions and Centrifugal Democracy 83 PART II Case Studies 119 4 Democratic Breakdown in the Weimar Republic 121 5 Ethnic Conflicts and the Dilemma of Democracy in Nigeria 180 6 Class Conflict and the Failure of Chile’s Democracy 238 7 The Miracle of Indian Democracy and Its Constitution 280 vi Contents PART III Conclusion and Implications 349 8 Conclusion: How to Avoid the Failure of Young Democracies? 351 Bibliography 369 Index 384 Figures 1.1 Logic of democratic breakdown 20 1.2 Political cleavages among voters, political institutions, and democratic stability 28 2.1 Expansion of voting rights and movement of voters’ political preference 51 2.2 Ideological tendencies of voters of different classes 56 2.3 Change of class cleavage and class voting in the Western industrial democracies 58 2.4 Comparison of class cleavage of voters 72 2.5 Major political issues and degree of political cleavage of voters 73 2.6 Three types of major political issues 74 3.1 Three levels of political institutional arrangements and their main institutions 92 3.2 Centripetal and centrifugal incentives of different political institutions 106 3.3 Ideal types of centrifugal democracies and centripetal democracies 108 5.1 Nigeria’s map of administrative divisions: from four regions to 36 states 229 7.1 Percentage of votes of the major left wing, middle, and right wing parties of India in the 1962 election 306 7.2 Trend in voter turnout in the Indian Lok Sabha elections: 1952– 2009 312 7.3 Trend in India’s political stability indicator: 1996– 2020 320 7.4 Comparison of accountability and political stability indicators between India and other country groups: 2020 321 Tables 1.1 Democratic breakdowns during the third wave: 1974– 2006 9 1.2 Four types of democratic stability 27 3.1 Main characteristics of centrifugal and centripetal democracies 108 4.1 Votes obtained by the major parties in the German Reichstag: 1871– 1912 (%) 135 4.2 Number of seats and seat share of major political parties in the Weimar National Assembly and first Reichstag elections 144 4.3 Number of seats and vote share of major parties in the second and fourth Weimar Reichstag elections 148 4.4 Workday losses in Germany due to worker strikes and factory closures: 1924– 8 150 4.5 Changes in Germany’s basic economic indicators: 1929– 32 151 4.6 Number of Reichstag meetings, bills, and “state of emergency” orders: 1930– 2 152 4.7 Number of seats and vote share of major parties in the fifth and sixth Weimar Reichstag elections 154 4.8 Duration of the Weimar governments and their parliamentary support: 1919– 33 163 4.9 Growth of the Nazi Party’s votes and Reichstag seats 166 4.10 Economic achievements in early Nazi Germany: Gross national product and unemployment 170 5.1 Religious composition of the population in the three regions of Nigeria in the 1950s 197 5.2 Symbols of major political parties in Nigeria’s 1959 election 199 5.3 Geographic distribution and population ratio of major ethnic groups in Nigeria: 1952/ 53 and 1963 200 5.4 Votes and seats of the major political parties in Nigeria in the 1959 election 206 5.5 Results of Nigeria’s 1964/ 65 federal election: structure of seats 212 5.6 Growth of two major parties in their own regions: 1959 and 1964/ 65 elections 212 6.1 Occupational breakdown of Chile’s economically active population in 1970 244 Tables ix 6.2 Growth of voter participation in presidential elections: 1925– 70 253 6.3 Electoral results by party in Chile, 1957– 73(%) 254 6.4 Occupations of urban land, factories, and rural estates in Chile: 1967– 70 261 6.5 Increase in workers’ strikes and participants in Chile: 1958– 72 261 6.6 Inflation rate in Chile: 1964– 73 270 7.1 Votes and seats of political parties in the Lok Sabha: 1952– 62 304 7.2 Proportion of votes and seats of major political parties in the Indian Lok Sabha elections: 1984– 2009 315 7.3 Distribution of the seats of five “national” parties in the Lok Sabha in different states: 2009 319 7.4 Vote and seat shares of the Congress Party in the House of the People: 1952– 84 327 7.5 Party structure and duration of Indian coalition governments: 1989– 2014 331 7.6 Proportion of votes and seats of the two major party alliances in the Lok Sabha elections: 1999– 2009 334