Politics in an Era of Divided Government: The Election of 1996 and its Aftermath

219 Pages·2001·0.62 MB·English

by  Harvey L. Schantz

Politics in an Era of Divided Government
P P A
OLITICS AND OLICY IN MERICAN
I
NSTITUTIONS
Steven A. Shull, Series Editor
Presidents as Candidates
Inside the White House
for the Presidential Campaign
Kathryn Dunn Tenpas
Reasonable Disagreement
Two U.S. Senators and
the Choices They Make
Karl A. Lamb
Legislative Learning
The 104th Republican Freshmen in the House
Timothy J. Barnett
Politics in an Era of Divided Government
Elections and Governance in the Second Clinton Administration
Edited Harvey L. Schantz
POLITICS IN AN ERA OF DIVIDED
GOVERNMENT
ELECTIONS AND GOVERNANCE IN THE SECOND
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION
Edited by
Harvey L. Schantz
Routledge
New York • London
Published in 2001 by
Routledge
29 West 35th Street
New York, NY 10001
Published in Great Britain by
Routledge
11 New Fetter Lane
London EC4P 4EE
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group.
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2002.
Copyright © 2001 by Routledge
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or uti-
lized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or
hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information
storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Politics in an era of divided government : elections and governance in the
second Clinton administration / edited by Harvey L. Schantz
p. cm. — (Politics and policy in American institutions)
Included biliographical references and index.
ISBN: 0-8153-3583-0 (hardcover)
1. Presidents—United States—Election—1996. 2. United States. Congress—
Elections, 1996. 3. Elections—United States. 4. United States—Politics and
government—1993–2001. I. Schantz, Harvey L., 1951– II. Garland reference
library of social science. Politics and policy in American institutions
JK526 1996L
324.973’0929—dc21 2001023028
ISBN 0-203-90315-3 Master e-book ISBN
ISBN 0-203-90319-6 (Glassbook Format)
To Our Families

Contents
List of Tables ix
Acknowledgments xi
Abbreviations Used in Notes xiii
Series Editor Foreword
Steven A. Shull xv
Introduction
Harvey L. Schantz xvii
Chapter 1 Some Things Are Predictable: Nominating
Dole, Clinton, and Perot
Emmett H. Buell Jr. 1
Chapter 2 Congressional Nominations in 1996:
Procedures, Candidates, and Electoral Patterns
Harvey L. Schantz 41
Chapter 3 The Presidential Campaign and Vote in 1996:
Job Ratings of Presidents—and Success or
Failure at the Polls
Milton C. Cummings Jr. 63
Chapter 4 Strategic Partisan Decisions and Blunted
National Outcomes: The 1996 Senate Election
Campaign and Vote
Douglas B. Harris 85
vii
Chapter 5 Sideshows and Strategic Separations: The Impact
of Presidential Year Politics on Congressional
Elections
Garrison Nelson 105
Chapter 6 Clinton’s Second Transition: Historic
Aspirations Amidst Divided Government
Margaret Jane Wyszomirski 129
Chapter 7 The Irony of the 105th Congress and Its Legacy
Roger H. Davidson and Colton C. Campbell 155
Epilogue
Harvey L. Schantz 181
List of Contributors 183
Index 185
List of Tables
1.1 1996 Invisible-Primary Finances of Declared
Republican Candidates 7
1.2 1994–1996 Republican Presidential Straw Polls 10
2.1 Nominating Methods for the U.S. House, 1996 42
2.2 Nominating Methods for the U.S. Senate, 1996 42
2.3 Candidate Pool for Congressional Seats, 1996 50
3.1 President Clinton’s Job Rating, 1993–1996 66
3.2 Voter Support for Clinton, Dole, and Perot:
The Gallup Poll’s Three-Way Trial Heats–Between
February 1995 and Election Eve 1996 70
3.3 Presidents Seeking Reelection; Their Job Ratings;
and the Outcome of the Presidential Election:
Presidential Approval Ratings in an Election Year
and the President’s Share of the November
Presidential Vote, 1956–1996 81
4.1 States with 1996 Senate Elections by Presidential
Performance in 1992 and 1996 89
5.1 Fifty-Plus House Seat Election Gains and House
Party Control in the Twentieth Century 107
ix