Political Mobilizations and Democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa PDF
Preview Political Mobilizations and Democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa
Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Wolfgang Stuppert Political Mobilizations and Democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Series Editors DierySeck,CREPOL—CenterforResearchonPoliticalEconomy,Dakar,Senegal Juliet U. Elu, Morehouse College, Atlanta, GA, USA Yaw Nyarko, New York University, New York, NY, USA Africa is emerging as a rapidly growing region, still facing major challenges, but with a potential for significant progress—a transformation that necessitates vigorous efforts in research and policy thinking. This book series focuses on three intricatelyrelatedkeyaspectsofmodern-dayAfrica:economic,socialandpolitical development. Making use of recent theoretical and empirical advances, the series aims to provide fresh answers to Africa’s development challenges. All the socio-political dimensions of today’s Africa are incorporated as they unfold and newpolicyoptionsarepresented.Theseriesaimstoprovideabroadandinteractive forum of science at work for policymaking and to bring together African and international researchers and experts. The series welcomes monographs and contributed volumes for an academic and professional audience, as well as tightly edited conference proceedings. Relevant topics include, but are not limited to, economicpolicyandtrade,regionalintegration,labormarketpolicies,demographic development, social issues, political economy and political systems, and environ- mental and energy issues. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11885 Wolfgang Stuppert Political Mobilizations and Democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa 123 WolfgangStuppert Berlin Graduate Schoolof Social Sciences Humboldt University of Berlin Berlin, Germany ISSN 2198-7262 ISSN 2198-7270 (electronic) Advances in AfricanEconomic, Social andPoliticalDevelopment ISBN978-3-030-22791-3 ISBN978-3-030-22792-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22792-0 ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2020 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregard tojurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Acknowledgements Thisbookmarkstheendofalongjourney.Ontheway,manypeoplehavecarriedme forwardwiththeiradvice,encouragement,andpracticalsupport.Firstofall,Iwould liketoexpressmygratitudetoProf.Dr.WolfgangMerkelandProf.Dr.DieterRucht. Bothtookthetimetoreadthroughsketchesandproposalsofthedissertationproject this book is based on at critical points in its development and gave me invaluable feedback. Without their critical questions and insightful advice, the theoretical frameworkwouldbemuchlesscoherentlyargued,andmyempiricalresearchmuch lessstringentlydesigned.WhilethedatathatIuseinthisbookismainlyderivedfrom secondary sources, I did not conduct my research on protests and elections in Sub-Saharan Africa exclusively from afar. Between October 2012 and April 2013, I spent three months in Zambia and three months in Uganda. In both countries, Iconductedalltogethermorethan80interviewswithpartypoliticians,NGOleaders, andcivilsocietyexperts,andparticipatedintwolocalelectionobservationmissions forparliamentaryby-elections.Theseinsightsandexperienceshaveproveninvalu- able for the development of the book’s theoretical framework. Besides these inter- viewpartners,IwanttoexpressmygratitudetoMcDonaldChipenziandhisresearch teamattheFoundationforDemocraticProcessinZambia,toCrispyKaherufromthe Citizens’CoalitionforElectoralDemocracyinUganda,andtotheresearchdivision attheFoundationforHumanRightsInitiativesinUganda.Theirgeneroussharingof office space, knowledge on civil society and politics, and contacts to interview partners made my research a most rewarding experience, both personally and aca- demically.IalsowanttothankMeghanforherunwaveringsupportduringthewriting ofthisbook.Haditnotbeenfortheprospectofspendingmoretimewithheronceit wasdone,Iwouldnothavebeenmotivatedenoughtospendthosedaysandnights writing.IknowthatshenowknowsmoreaboutprotestsandelectionsinSub-Saharan Africathansheeverwishedto.Ithankherforherpatience,andforthetimeshetook toreadthroughmytexts.Iamdedicatingthisbooktomyparents,foralltheobvious reasons, and this particular one: I am grateful that they continued to ask me throughoutalltheseyearshowmyworkwasprogressing,andneverfrownedatmy answers. v Contents 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Democratization Processes in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2 Collective Action as a Theoretical Approach to Democratization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.3 A New Look at Civil Society in Democratization Processes . . . . . 6 1.4 Structure of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2 Elections Without Democratization: How African Electoral Authoritarianism Survived . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.1 Electoral Competitiveness as a Central Regime of Democracy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2.1.1 Vertical Accountability for the Masses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.1.2 Institutionalized Uncertainty for Elites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.2 Trends in Democratic Governance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.3 Electoral Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.4 Electoral Competitiveness and Democratic Governance. . . . . . . . . 30 2.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3 Mobilizing for Democracy? Collective Action and Political Power in Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.1 Electoral Authoritarianism and Political Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3.2 Mobilization Threat as Political Power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3.3 From Collective Action Solutions to Mobilization Tactics. . . . . . . 48 3.4 Political Power of Collective Actors in Sub-Saharan Africa. . . . . . 64 3.4.1 Ruling Elites and Political Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 3.4.2 Oppositional Political Elites and Political Power . . . . . . . . 67 3.4.3 Societal Groups and Political Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 vii viii Contents 3.5 Trajectories of Political Mobilizations in Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . 80 3.6 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 4 No Protest, No Choice: Political Mobilizations and Electoral Competitiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 4.1 Democratization and the Balancing of Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 4.2 Societal Groups and the Changing of the Balance of Power . . . . . 105 4.2.1 Building up Opposition Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 4.2.2 Safeguarding Democratic Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 4.3 Specifying a Test of the Mobilization-Democratization Link . . . . . 109 4.4 Political Mobilizations and Electoral Competitiveness. . . . . . . . . . 122 4.4.1 How Political Mobilizations Effect Electoral Competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 4.4.2 Political Mobilization as a Cause for Electoral Competitiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 4.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 5 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Appendix. .... .... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ..... .... 155 Chapter 1 Introduction Despiteahistoryofmulti-partyelectoralpoliticsinSub-SaharanAfricathatspanned morethan20years,by2012onlyafewcountrieshadmadeasuccessfultransitionto democracy.Thisisdespitethefactthat30ofthe48countriesonthesubcontinenthave been holding direct national multi-party elections in an uninterrupted series since multi-partyelectionswere(re-)introducedintheirrespectivepolities.Moreover,most elections in that time were relatively free and fair, participatory and consequential fortheselectionofexecutiveleaders.Yet,in2012,democraticgovernancewasstill anexceptioninSub-SaharanAfrica.Inthatyearonlyfiveofthe48countriescould beconsideredliberaldemocracies.Fivemorehadcrossedthethresholdofelectoral democracies. The bulk of African regimes, i.e., 32 countries, remained electoral authoritarian(seeTable2.2foraclassificationofpoliticalregimesinSub-Saharan Africa in 2012). Why did the democratization processes of electoral authoritarian regimesinSub-SaharanAfricamakesolittleprogress?Thisbookseekstoanswer thatquestion. Several explanations for the lack of democratization of electoral authoritarian regimeshavebeenventuredincomparativepolitics.AppliedtoSub-SaharanAfrica, morerecentanalyseswouldpointto,forexample,thelackofasustained,effective revolutionary threat in African societies (Acemoglu and Robinson 2005), the lack ofexperienceofAfricanpoliticaleliteswithregularmulti-partyelections(Lindberg 2006),thestrengthofparty-basedrulingelitecoalitions(Brownlee2007),theweak diffusion of values of self-expression in African societies (Welzel and Inglehart 2008), or the organizational strength of the ruling party combined with African countries’lackofinternationallinkstotheWest(LevitskyandWay2010). This book takes a different approach. It employs collective action theory to investigate the effects of societal mobilizations on democratization processes in Sub-Saharan Africa. It focuses on electoral competitiveness as a central aspect of democraticpractice.Itshowsthatmeaningfulcompetitioninmulti-partyelections is strongly associated with the protection of political rights and civil liberties by politicalregimesacrossSub-SaharanAfrica.Thatis,itshowsthatalackofelectoral ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2020 1 W.Stuppert,PoliticalMobilizationsandDemocratizationinSub-SaharanAfrica, AdvancesinAfricanEconomic,SocialandPoliticalDevelopment, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22792-0_1 2 1 Introduction competitiveness means that elections do not produce the “institutionalized uncer- tainty”forpoliticalelites(Przeworski1986,p.58)thatisnecessaryfortheregime toprovideverticalaccountabilityforcitizens.Basedonanalysisofallauthoritarian directnationalmulti-partyelectionsbetween1990and2012inSub-SaharanAfrica, thebookdemonstratesthatacrediblemobilizationthreatbysocietalgroupsinthe pre-election period leads to stronger electoral competition among political elites, and thus promotes democratization. By voicing grievances against ruling elites in political mobilizations such as protests, riots and strikes, societal groups increase thepoliticalpowerofoppositionalpoliticalelites,therebyincreasingelectoralcom- petitiveness.Consideringthelimitedprogressofdemocratization processesonthe subcontinent, the book thus suggests that the weak mobilization threat of societal groups is a major explanatory factor for the lack of progress in democratization processesinSub-SaharanAfrica. The remainder of the introductory chapter clarifies the empirical scope of the study,explainshowcollectiveactiontheoryisappliedtodemocratizationprocesses, andshowshowthistheoreticalapproachleadstoanewappreciationoftheroleof civilsocietyinthestrugglefordemocracy.Thefinalsectionwillpresentanoverview ofthestructureofthebook. 1.1 DemocratizationProcessesinElectoralAuthoritarian Regimes Thisbookwillfocusonthedemocratizationofelectoralauthoritarianregimes.Elec- toralauthoritarianregimesareatypeof“hybrid”regimewhichcombineselements ofdemocracywithelementsofautocracy(Diamond2002,p.23).Likedemocracies, electoralauthoritarianregimesholdregularnationalmulti-partyelectionsforexecu- tiverecruitment.Yet,rulingelitesmaintainastyleofgovernance,includingarbitrary ruleandstaterepression,whichissimilartothatofautocracies. Intheliteratureonpoliticaltransitions,variousterminologieshavebeenproposed forregimesofthiskind.LevitskyandWay(2002),forexample,speakof“hegemonic” and“competitive”authoritarianregimes,andSchedler(2002)generallyof“electoral authoritarianism”.Approachingthestudyofhybridregimesfromthedemocraticend of the spectrum, O’Donnell and Schmitter (1986) define them as “democradura,” whileMerkeletal.(2003)callthem“exclusive”or“illiberal”democracies.Forthe purposeofthisstudy,allregimesinwhichregularnationalmulti-partyelectionsare heldtorecruitexecutiveleadership,butinwhichthepoliticalrightsandcivilliberties of citizens are only partially protected or not at all, will be defined as “electoral authoritarian”.Accordingtothisdefinition,anelectoralauthoritarianregimecomes aboutwhenanauthoritarianregimeturns“electoral,”i.e.,whenauthoritarianruling elitesholdthefirstdejuredirectnationalmulti-partyelection,orwhenademocratic electoralregimeturns“authoritarian,”i.e.,whenrulingelitessignificantlylimitthe politicalrightsandcivillibertiesofcitizens.Inturn,anelectoralauthoritarianregime
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