Political Leadership in Afghanistan

942 Pages·2016·13.88 MB·English

by  Ahmad Rahmani

Dissertation
Political Leadership in
Afghanistan
Identifying and Assessing Determining
Factors
Ahmad Idrees Rahmani
This document was submitted as a dissertation in January 2016 in
partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public
policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty
committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of
Terrence Kelly (Chair), Gery Ryan, and Thomas Szayna.
PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL
For more information on this publication, visit http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD371.html

Perhaps no question is as central to political discourse as that of political leadership. For if
there is an “irreducible fact” of politics, it is that in many political society some shall be the
rulers and some the ruled (Dahl and Neubauer, 1968).

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PREFACE
This dissertation is written in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of Doctor of
Philosophy in Policy Research and Analysis by Pardee RAND Graduate School. The committee
that approved this dissertation on December 14th 2015 consisted of Terrence Kelly (Chairman),
Gery Ryan, Thomas Szayna, and Francis Fukuyama (external advisor).
The study is designed to explore the socio-cultural norms, expectations, and values of the
Afghan people for good political leadership, and assess variations across different ethnic groups.
The effort aims to examine if the socio-cultural norms and values of the Afghan society are to be
credited or blamed for the patterns of political leadership that have emerged in the past five
decades.
The analysis and policy recommendation provided in this document will be of interest to
individuals concerned with political leadership and factors that determine good leadership in the
context of Afghanistan. Some of the issues discussed in this study could be defined as time
sensitive, meaning more relevant to the time of the study rather than a distance time in the future.
But most conclusions and policy recommendations of the study will likely remain relevant for
several decades to come.
The views expressed in this study are those of the author, they should not be interpreted as
representing the view of the institutions and individuals who provided the technical and financial
support, and/or any individual cited herein.
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ABSTRACT
Afghanistan is a country where national institutions are weak, if they exist at all. Any socio-
political change is initiated and enforced through strong political initiatives exhibited by unique
individuals with charismatic leadership capacity. Even after the end of Afghanistan’s isolation in
2002, and excessive foreign investment in building institutions, many experts believe that the
process has not lived up to expectations, partly because Afghans tend to mobilize around
individuals and do not treat institutions seriously. This study takes those beliefs as a starting
point and explores the factors that lead to a political leader in Afghanistan being defined as
“good,” “strong,” or “popular”—as well as what needs to be done to improve political leadership
for future generations, given cultural consensus on characteristics of good political leadership.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................... 3 
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................... 4 
TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ 5 
TABLE OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... 9 
TABLE OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... 12 
SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 14 
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................................. 24 
ABBREVIATION......................................................................................................................... 25 
CH – 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 27 
Impact on Policy ..................................................................................................................................... 29 
Historical Background ........................................................................................................................ 30 
Impact on research .................................................................................................................................. 36 
The Current Concept of Political Leadership ..................................................................................... 39 
Expected Contribution from This Research ........................................................................................... 44 
CH – 2: METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................... 47 
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Theoretical Framework and Assumptions .............................................................................................. 47 
Analysis and Data Collection Strategy ................................................................................................... 50 
Level-1 Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 51 
Level-2 Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 51 
Level-1 Data Collection ..................................................................................................................... 54 
Level-2 Data Collection ..................................................................................................................... 57 
How to read the analysis .................................................................................................................... 59 
Factor Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 65 
CH – 3: DEMOGRAPHICS ......................................................................................................... 69 
Stratification Strategy ............................................................................................................................. 71 
Sampling Strategy .................................................................................................................................. 73 
CH – 4: DEFINITION OF LEADERSHIP ................................................................................... 82 
CH – 5: CHARACTERISTICS OF LEADERS ........................................................................... 93 
Factor 1: Measure of Goodness .............................................................................................................. 99 
Factor 2: Islamic Factor ........................................................................................................................ 101 
Factor 3: Pashtun Factor ....................................................................................................................... 103 
Factor 4: Trust & Dependability ........................................................................................................... 105 
Factor 5: Non-Pashtun Standard ........................................................................................................... 106 
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Important Findings from the First Stage ............................................................................................... 109 
Judging Characteristics of Known Political Leaders ............................................................................ 113 
CH – 6: EXPECTATIONS FROM LEADERS .......................................................................... 118 
Factor 1: Measure of Goodness ............................................................................................................ 124 
Factor 2: Islamic Factor ........................................................................................................................ 125 
Factor 3: Justice and Honesty ............................................................................................................... 126 
Factor 4: Decentralization of Power ..................................................................................................... 127 
Factor 5: The Culture of Denying Personal Expectations .................................................................... 127 
CH – 7: IDENTITY OF POLITICAL LEADERS ..................................................................... 132 
Factor 1: Tajik Factor ........................................................................................................................... 141 
Factor 2: Pashtun Factor ....................................................................................................................... 142 
Factor 3: Gender, Rights, and Anti-Jihadi ............................................................................................ 143 
Factor 4: Hazara Factor ........................................................................................................................ 143 
Factor 5: Karzai Factor ......................................................................................................................... 145 
Factor 6: Inner Circle ............................................................................................................................ 145 
Factor 7: Communist Factor ................................................................................................................. 146 
Factor 8: Radical Islamic ...................................................................................................................... 147 
Factor 9: Western Technocrats ............................................................................................................. 148 
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Factor 10: Pashtun Nationalists ............................................................................................................ 148 
Factor 11: VP Factor ............................................................................................................................ 149 
Factor 12: Tajik Nationalist .................................................................................................................. 149 
Other Political Leaders: ........................................................................................................................ 150 
CH – 8: MAIN FINDINGS & POLICY IMPLICATIONS ........................................................ 154 
Definition of Leadership ....................................................................................................................... 154 
Characteristics of Leaders .................................................................................................................... 156 
Policy Implications ............................................................................................................................... 163 
Policy Recommendation I: Fix the judiciary to deliver justice ........................................................ 164 
Policy Recommendation II: Ensure candidates for high office are well qualified ........................... 166 
Policy Recommendation III: Foster future leaders of good character .............................................. 168 
Policy Recommendation IV: Reduce the propensity towards radical Islamic dogmatism .............. 169 
Policy Recommendation V: Provide specialized training for future political leaders ...................... 172 
Policy Recommendation VI: Teach Afghan children about the country and their cultures ............. 175 
Policy Recommendation VII: Provide safeguards for political leaders............................................ 176 
BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................... 181 
APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................ 187 

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TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1: Scree plot of words frequently repeated by respondents .............. 60 
Figure 2.2a: Divergence of views between Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns over
legitimacy of political leadership. ......................................................................... 64 
Figure 2.2b: Divergence of views between Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns over
legitimacy of political leadership. ......................................................................... 65 
Figure 2.3: A diagram of relationship between proxy measures (items) and
underlying constructs (factors) ............................................................................. 67 
Figure 4.1: Frequency of words used for definition of leadership. ................. 84 
Figure 4.2: Pashtuns and none Pashtuns divergence of views. ....................... 86 
Figure 4.3: Frequency of words in response to what a leader must have before
you call him a good leader. ................................................................................... 87 
Figure 4.4: Frequency of words in response to what a leaders should be bfore
one calls him a good leader. .................................................................................. 88 
Figure 4.5: Frequency of words used in response to the question of what
makes a leader popular. ......................................................................................... 89 
Figure 4.6: Desired level of education for a good political leader vs. the level
of education of respondents. ................................................................................. 90 
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Figure 5.1: Distribution of scores (1 – 5) to different characteristics of a good
political leader. ...................................................................................................... 95 
Figure 5.2: Scree plot of Eigen values for main factors ................................. 97 
Figure 5.3: Divergence of views between Pashtuns and None Pashtuns over
characteristics of good political leadership. ........................................................ 104 
Figure 5.4: Divergence of views between Pashtuns and None Pashtuns over
characteristics of good political leadership. ........................................................ 107 
Figure 5.5: Consensus of respondents over characteristics of good political
leadership plotted by UCINET. .......................................................................... 110 
Figure 5.6: Lack of consensus over characteristics of good political leadership
plotted by UCINET. ............................................................................................ 112 
Figure 5.7: No significant divergence of views between Pashtuns and none
Pashtuns over some characteristics of good political leadership. ....................... 113 
Figure 5.8: Key words used in evaluation of actual political leaders (depicted
in word cloud). .................................................................................................... 115 
Figure 6.1 presents sorted distribution of scores for the 41 policy expectation
ratings. ................................................................................................................. 120 
Figure 6.2: Scree plot of Eigen values for main factors ............................... 122 
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