Political Behavior of the American Electorate Fourteenth Edition To Nicholas, Christopher, Eleanor, Abigail, and all of our students Political Behavior of the American Electorate Fourteenth Edition Elizabeth A. Theiss-Morse University of Nebraska–Lincoln Michael W. Wagner University of Wisconsin–Madison William H. Flanigan University of Minnesota Nancy H. Zingale University of St. Thomas FOR INFORMATION: CQ Press 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: [email protected] SAGE Publications Ltd. 1 Oliver’s Yard 55 City Road London EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd. B 1/I 1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044 India SAGE Publications Asia-Pacific Pte. Ltd. 3 Church Street #10–04 Samsung Hub Singapore 049483 Copyright © 2018 by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional Quarterly, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth, author. Title: Political behavior of the American electorate / Elizabeth A. Theiss-Morse, Michael W. Wagner, William H. Flanigan, Nancy H. Zingale. Description: Fourteenth Edition. | Thousand Oaks, California : Sage/CQ Press, [2018] | Revised edition of: Political behavior of the American electorate / William H. Flanigan … [et al.]. Edition 13. 2015. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2017040374 | ISBN 9781506367736 (Paperback : acid-free paper) Subjects: LCSH: Voting—United States. Classification: LCC JK1967 .F38 2018 | DDC 324.973—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017040374 This book is printed on acid-free paper. Executive Publisher: Monica Eckman Editorial Assistant: Zachary Hoskins Production Editor: Nevair Kabakian Copy Editor: Patrice Sutton Typesetter: C&M Digitals (P) Ltd. Proofreader: Barbara Coster Indexer: Mary Mortensen Cover Designer: Janet Kiesel Marketing Manager: Erica DeLuca Contents Tables and Figures Acknowledgments Introduction Chapter 1 Democratic Beliefs and American Democracy Trust in Government Attitudes toward Democracy What Leads to Democratic Beliefs and Values? Maintaining a Democracy Notes Suggested Readings Internet Resources Chapter 2 Electoral Context and Strategy The Fundamentals The Rules of the Game Strategy The Unexpected Understanding Fundamentals and Winning Elections Notes Suggested Readings Chapter 3 Turnout and Participation in Elections Turnout in American Elections Voters and Nonvoters Institutional Impediments to Turnout Psychological Motivation, Genetics, and Turnout Campaign Activity and Mobilization in American Elections Participation in Campaigns Notes Suggested Readings Internet Resources Chapter 4 Partisanship and Party Change Party Loyalty Party Identification Voting Behavior Are Independents Apolitical? Partisans and Electoral Change Party Systems and Realignments Are Conditions Right for a Realignment? Partisan Change Affective Partisanship The Future of Parties and Partisanship Notes Suggested Readings Chapter 5 Group Characteristics and Social Networks Primary Groups and Social Networks Group Identity and Partisanship Social Cross-Pressures Notes Suggested Readings Internet Resources Chapter 6 Public Opinion and Ideology The Measurement of Public Opinion Domestic Economic Issues Racial Issues Social Issues Homeland Security and Terrorism International Affairs Nationalism and the 2016 Election Issues and Partisanship Political Ideology Public Opinion and Political Leadership Notes Suggested Readings Internet Resources Chapter 7 Political Communication and the Mass Media Functions of the News Media Types of Media and Their Users Media Bias and Audience Bias Media Coverage and the Public Agenda Political Communication and Polarization Social Media and Contemporary Politics Political Communication and Attitude Change Campaigns and Political Communication Presidential Primary Campaigns Conclusion Notes Suggested Readings Internet Resources Chapter 8 Vote Choice and Electoral Decisions Social Characteristics and Presidential Vote Choice Partisanship and Ideology Short-Term Forces Determinants of Vote Choice The Popular Vote and the Electoral College Vote Choice in Other Types of Elections The Meaning of an Election Notes Suggested Readings Internet Resources Appendix: Survey Research Methods Survey Data Collection Validity of Survey Questions Validity versus Continuity Notes Suggested Readings Internet Resources Index Tables and Figures Tables 1-1 Support for Alternative Political Processes 26 2-1 Popular Vote Percentage and Electoral Vote Count for the Winning Presidential Candidate, 1952–2016 44 2-2 Tone of Presidential Campaign Advertisements, 2000–2016 (June 8- October 30) 49 3-1 Interest and Partisanship of Registered Voters and Nonvoters and Unregistered Citizens, 2016 71 4-1 Party Identification of the Electorate, 1952–2016 88 4-2 Party Identification of the Electorate for the Nation, the Non-South, and the South, 1952–2016 90 4-3 The Distribution of Votes for President by Independents, 1952–2016 100 4-4 Party Identifiers, Self-Identified Independents, and People Claiming No Preference, 1968–2016 102 4-5 Stability and Change of Partisanship, 1965–1997 116 5-1 Reported Vote Preferences of Primary Groups, by Respondent’s Reported Vote for President, 2000 129 5-2 Party Identification, by Social Characteristics, 2016 138 5-3 Party Identification by Age and Racial/Ethnic Group, 2016 149 6-1 Attitudes toward Cutting Spending versus Increasing Government Services, by Party Identification, 2016 169 6-2 Attitudes on Health Care, by Party Identification, 2016 170 6-3 Public Attitudes on School Integration and Employment Practices 172 6-4 Whites’ Views on Abortion, by Religion and Frequency of Church Attendance, 2016 179 6-5 Hispanics’ Views on Abortion, by Religion and Frequency of Church Attendance, 2016 180 6-6 Blacks’ Views on Abortion, by Religion and Frequency of Church Attendance, 2016 182 6-7 Attitudes on Abortion, by Party Identification, 2016 183 6-8 Attitudes toward Gay Marriage, by Party Identification, 2016 183 6-9 Attitudes toward the War in Iraq according to Party Identification, 2004 and 2008 188 6-10 Attitudes toward Possible Foreign Policy Goals according to Party Identification, 2008-2016 189