Policy Agendas in British Politics PDF
Preview Policy Agendas in British Politics
Policy Agendas in British Politics ComparativeStudiesofPoliticalAgendasSeries Serieseditors Frank R. Baumgartner is the Richard J. Richardson Distinguished Professor of PoliticalScienceattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill,USA LauraChaques,AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofBarcelona andresearchfellowattheInstitutBarcelonad’EstudisInternacionals(IBEI),Spain ChristofferGreen-Pedersen,Professor,AarhusUniversity,Denmark Arco Timmermans, Research Director, Montesquieu Institute, The Hague, and AssociateProfessorofComparativePublicPolicy,InstituteofPublicAdministra- tion,LeidenUniversity,Belgium FredericVarone,ProfessorofPoliticalScience,UniversityofGeneva,Switzerland The series publishes books on policy agenda-setting dynamics broadly under- stood.Thisincludes,forinstance,booksdealingwiththepolicyeffectsofagenda dynamics,therelationshipbetweenthepoliticalagenda,publicopinionandthe media agenda, and agenda dynamics in relation to particular issues. The series publishes both comparative books and books dealing with single countries if these single countries are placed in a comparative context. The books can be eithermonographsoreditedvolumes. Titlesinclude: IsabelleEngeli,ChristofferGreen-PedersenandLarsThorupLarsen(editors) MORALITYPOLITICSINWESTERNEUROPE Parties,AgendasandPolicyChoices PeterJohn,AnthonyBertelli,WillJenningsandShaunBevan POLICYAGENDASINBRITISHPOLITICS ComparativeStudiesofPoliticalAgendasSeries SeriesStandingOrderISBN978–0–230–35977–2(Hardback) 978–0–230–35978–9(Paperback) (outsideNorthAmericaonly) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to usattheaddressbelowwithyournameandaddress,thetitleoftheseriesand theISBNsquotedabove. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke,HampshireRG216XS,England Policy Agendas in British Politics Peter John ProfessorofPoliticalScienceandPublicPolicy, SchoolofPublicPolicy,UniversityCollegeLondon,UK Anthony Bertelli ProfessorofPublicPolicy,PoliticalScienceandLawandC.C.CrawfordChairin ManagementandPerformanceattheUniversityofSouthernCalifornia.Heisalso ProfessorofPublicPolicyAnalysisattheUniversityofBirmingham Will Jennings ReaderinPolitics,UniversityofSouthampton,UKandResearchAssociate,Centrefor AnalysisofRiskandRegulation,LondonSchoolofEconomics,UK Shaun Bevan ResearchFellowattheMannheimCentreforEuropeanSocialResearch(MZES), UniversityofMannheim,Germany ©PeterJohn,AnthonyBertelli,WillJenningsandShaunBevan2013 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-0-230-39039-3 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency, SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorshaveassertedtheirrightstobeidentifiedastheauthorsofthis workinaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2013by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited, registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS. PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC, 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010. PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld. Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries. ISBN 978-0-230-39042-3 ISBN 978-0-230-39040-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230390409 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. Contents ListofFiguresandTables vi PrefaceandAcknowledgements x 1 ThePolicyAgendaandBritishPolitics 1 2 Policy-MakingandBritishPolitics 23 3 MeasuringthePolicyAgenda:Policy,Public andMediainBritain 41 4 ChangeandStabilityinExecutiveandLegislativeAgendas 55 5 PolicyPunctuations 94 6 StructuralShiftsinBritishPoliticalAttention 114 7 PublicOpinionandthePolicyAgenda 130 8 TheMedia 153 9 BudgetsandPolicyImplementation 168 10 Conclusion 199 Notes 209 References 215 AuthorIndex 231 SubjectIndex 235 v Figures and Tables Figures 3.1 NumberofsentencesintheSpeechfromtheThrone 47 3.2 NumberofActsoftheUKParliament 49 4.1 Incrementalisminmacroeconomyinspeechesandlaws, 1945–2008 58 4.2 Focusedadaptationininternationalaffairsandforeign aidinspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 61 4.3 Punctuationsandfocusedadaptationinattentionto defenceinspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 63 4.4 Punctuation,focusedadaptationandissueattention cycleingovernmentoperationsinspeechesandlaws, 1945–2008 66 4.5 Focusedadaptationandissueattentioncyclesin attentiontolaw,crimeandthefamilyinspeechesand laws,1945–2008 68 4.6 Focusedadaptationinattentiontohealthinspeeches andlaws,1945–2008 70 4.7 Issueattentioncyclesinattentiontoeducationin speechesandlaws,1945–2008 72 4.8 Issueattentioncyclesandfocusedadaptationin attentiontosocialwelfareinspeechesandlaws, 1945–2008 74 4.9 Incrementalisminattentiontohousingandcommunity developmentinspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 76 4.10 Issueattentioncyclesandincrementalisminattention totransportinspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 78 4.11 Issueattentioncyclesinattentiontotheenvironment inspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 80 4.12 Focusedadaptationinattentiontopubliclands (territorialissues)inspeechesandlaws,1945–2008 81 4.13 Focusedadaptationinattentiontoagriculturein speechesandlaws,1945–2008 83 4.14 Incrementalisminattentiontoenergyinspeechesand laws,1945–2008 85 vi ListofFiguresandTables vii 4.15 Issueattentioncyclesinattentiontocivilrights, minorityissues,immigrationandcivillibertiesin speechesandlaws,1945–2008 86 4.16 Incrementalisminlabourandemploymentinspeeches andlaws,1945–2008 88 4.17 Issueattentioncyclesinattentiontobankingin speechesandlaws,1945–2008 89 4.18 Incrementalisminattentiontoscienceinspeechesand laws,1945–2008 90 4.19 Focusedadaptationinattentiontoforeigntradein speechesandlaws,1945–2008 91 5.1 Frequencydistributionofannualpercentagechangein theSpeechfromtheThrone 98 5.2 Frequencydistributionofannualpercentagechangein ActsofParliament 98 6.1 Likelychangepoints,SpeechesfromtheThrone, 1946–2008 117 6.2 LikelychangepointsinActsofParliament 122 6.A1 ScatterplotofmacroeconomictopicsinActsof Parliament 128 6.A2 Theposteriormeanandprobabilitiesofachangepoint 129 7.1 Thepublicagendaandproblemrecognition:defence 132 7.2 Thepublicagendaandproblemrecognition: internationalaffairs 133 7.3 Thepublicagendaandproblemrecognition: macroeconomics 134 7.4 Long-termchangeandthepublicagenda:crime 135 7.5 Long-termchangeandthepublicagenda:health 136 7.6 Long-termchangeandthepublicagenda:education 136 7.7 Long-termchangeandthepublicagenda:immigration 137 7.8 Patternsinthepublicagenda:labourandemployment 138 7.9 Patternsinthepublicagenda:environment 139 7.10 Patternsinthepublicagenda:energy 139 7.11 Meanlevelsofissueimportancebetween1960and2008 141 7.12 Thepolicy–opinionlink:macroeconomics 142 7.13 Thepolicy–opinionlink:defence 143 7.14 Thepolicy–opinionlink:internationalaffairs 143 7.15 Thepolicy–opinionlink:health 144 7.16 Thepolicy–opinionlink:education 144 7.17 Thepolicy–opinionlink:welfare 145 7.18 Thepolicy–opinionlink:housing 145 viii ListofFiguresandTables 7.19 Thepolicy–opinionlink:immigration 146 7.20 Thepolicy–opinionlink:lawandcrime 147 7.21 AverageMIP-topiccorrelations,bypolicy-makingarena (1960–2008) 149 7.22 Likelychangepointsinpublicopinion 150 8.1 QuarterlyTheTimesdomesticandinternational headlines 155 8.2 QuarterlyTheTimespolicyandnon-policyheadlines 156 8.3 QuarterlyTheTimesheadlinesbypolicyarea 158 8.4 Yearlyeconomicattention,media,Speechfromthe ThroneandActsofParliament,1960–2008 161 8.5 Yearlydefenceattention:media,Speechfromthe ThroneandActsofParliament,1960–2008 162 8.6 Likelychangepointsforthemedia,1960–2008 164 9.1 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneonthemacroeconomy,1951–2007 172 9.2 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneondefence 173 9.3 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneonlawandcrime 175 9.4 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneonhealth 175 9.5 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneoneducation 176 9.6 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneonsocialwelfare 178 9.7 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneoncommunitydevelopment,planningand housingissues 179 9.8 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneontransport,1951–1989 180 9.9 PercentageofpublicexpenditureandtheSpeechfrom theThroneonagriculture,1951–1989 181 9.10 Policyagendasforthemacroeconomy,1951–2007 182 9.11 Policyagendasfordefence,1951–2007 183 9.12 Policyagendasforthelawandcrime,1951–2007 184 9.13 Policyagendasforhealth,1951–2007 185 9.14 Policyagendasforeducation,1951–2007 186 9.15 Policyagendasforsocialwelfare,1951–2007 187 9.16 Policyagendasforcommunitydevelopment,planning andhousingissues,1951–2007 188 ListofFiguresandTables ix 9.17 Policyagendasfortransport,1951–2007 188 9.18 Policyagendasforagriculture,1951–2007 189 9.19 Frequencydistributionofannualpercentagechangesin theSpeechfromtheThroneandActsofParliament 190 9.20 Likelychangepointsinbudgetaryexpenditure 192 Tables 2.1 SummaryofaccountsofBritishpolicy-making 37 2.2 Instabilityandstabilityofattentionand institutions—accountsofBritishpolitics 37 2.3 Instabilityandstabilityofattentionand institutions—possibleexpectationsofmodelsof decision-making 38 3.1 UKpolicyagendasmajortopiccodesandabbreviations 42 3.2 SummaryofUKPolicyAgendasProjectdatasets 46 4.1 Summarystatisticsofspeechpolicytopicattentionby year,1945–2008 57 4.2 Summarystatisticsofactspolicytopicattentionbyyear, 1945–2008 57 5.1 Changeinpercentageattentiontospeechesandlaws 99 5.2 PolicypunctuationsintheSpeechfromtheThrone, 1945–2008 100 5.3 PolicypunctuationsinActsofUKParliament,1945–2008 103 5.4 Typesofpunctuations 106 5.5 Listofidentifiedactpunctuationsbyissue,1945–2008 107 5.6 High-saliencepunctuationsinacts 110 7.1 Summarystatisticsofpublicopinionpolicytopic percentagebyyear,1960–2008 141 8.1 Summarystatisticsofmediapolicytopicattentionby quarter,1960–2008 160 8.A1UKPolicyAgendasProjectmediadatasetmajortopic codes 167 9.1 Summarystatisticsofbudgetaryexpenditureinbillions bypolicytopic,1951–2007 171 9.2 PolicypunctuationsinUKbudgets,1951–2007 191
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