Planet in Peril: Humanity's Four Greatest Challenges and How We Can Overcome Them

453 Pages·2022·4.732 MB·English

by  Michael D. Bess

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“Theterm‘existentialthreat’maybeoverusedbythosewhoexplore
globalgovernance;butitundoubtedlydescribesclimatechangeand
pandemics, two of the four mega-dangers that preoccupy Michael
Bess in Planet in Peril. It is hard to believe that international cooper-
ationremainsatoughsellin2022.Imagine:globalproblemsrequire
globalsolutions!Bessspellsoutconcrete,andhopefullydoable,steps
toward overcoming polarization and fragmentation. Let’s hope he’s
right.”
ThomasG.Weiss
“We are threatened by our own cleverness, and it is easy to get
paranoid. This book, by one of our best historians of science and
technology,offersasane,balanced,anddeeplyinformedlookatthe
majorthreats,andlaysoutarationalwayforward.”
DonaldWorster,authorofShrinkingtheEarthand
APassionforNature
“InPlanetinPeril,MichaelBessbringshissingularvoice,intellectual
courage,andgoodjudgmenttobearonthefourmega-dangersfacing
humankind – climate change, nuclear weapons, pandemics, and
artificial intelligence. He avoids the simplistic thinking that charac-
terizes too much of the public debate on these issues and offers
insightful, viable solutions. It is one of those rare books that is both
ajoytoreadandaroadmapforsolvingdauntingproblems.”
MichaelVandenbergh
PLANET IN PERIL
’
Humanity s Four Greatest Challenges and How We Can
Overcome Them
Michael D. Bess
UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom
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education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence.
www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781009160339
DOI:10.1017/9781009160315
©MichaelD.Bess2023
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2023
PrintedintheUnitedKingdombyTJBooksLimited,PadstowCornwall
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ISBN978-1-009-16033-9Hardback
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ForRina
whenshewasalittlegirl
Wachetauf!–ruftunsdieStimme.
(Sleepers,awaken!–thevoicecallstous.)
J.S.Bach
CantataBWV140(1731)
Contents
ListofFictionalVignettes pageix
Acknowledgements x
1 Introduction 1PART I EXISTENTIAL THREATS: THE FOUR MOST PRESSING
DANGERS FACING HUMANKIND 25
2 FossilFuelsandClimateChange 27
3 NukesforWarandPeacetime 36
4 Pandemics,NaturalorBioengineered 46
5 ArtificialIntelligence:ExtremeRewardandRisk 57PART II STRATEGIES AND OBSTACLES: THE SOLUTIONS
WE NEED, AND WHAT’S PREVENTING THEM FROM
BEING REALIZED 77
6 HowtoBeatClimateChange 79
7 WiseGovernanceforNukesandPandemics:WheretoGo
FasterandWheretoSlowDown 98
8 ControllingThingsVersusControllingAgents:TheChallenge
ofHigh-LevelAI 106
9 TheInternationalDimension:WhereEverySolutionStumbles 115
ProloguetoPartsIII,IV,andV:DoesHistoryHaveaDirection?
Hegel,Smith,Darwin 126PART III SENSIBLE STEPS FOR TODA’YS WORLD: POWERFUL
MEASURES WE CAN IMPLEMENT RIGHT AWAY 131
10 DoItNow:FivePointsofLeverage 133
11 ConstructiveMovesontheInternationalFrontfortheNext
25Years 160
vii
CONTENTS
12 BreakingthePoliticalLogjam 169
13 LessonsfromtheGreenMovement:HowtoBuildLasting
ChangeintheAbsenceofFullConsensus 185PART IV THE MIDDLE-TERM GAOL: NEW INTERNATIONAL
TOOLS FOR THE LATE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY 197
14 APromisingTrackRecord:TheDramaticGrowth
ofInternationalInstitutionsandNetworksSince1900 199
15 HowtoEscapetheSovereigntyTrap:LessonsandLimitations
oftheEuropeanUnionModel 212
16 TakingtheUnitedNationsUpaNotch:Planet-LevelSolutions
fortheYear2100 233
17 TheOtherPathto2100:RuthlessCompetition,FingersCrossed 252PART V THE LONG-TERM GOAL: ENVISIONING A MATURE
SYSTEM OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FOR THE
TWENTY-SECOND CENTURY 261
18 GlobalGovernmentinaWorldofDemocraciesand
Dictatorships:WhatItMightLookLikein2150 263
19 KeepingtheSystemAccountableandFair 289
20 CollectiveMilitarySecurityandEconomicSanctions:How
toHandleRogues,Cheaters,andFanatics 301
21 WhatCouldGoWrong? 318
22 Conclusion 324
Endnotes 329
Bibliography 385
Index 426
***
viii
Fictional Vignettes
Vignette1 HowJimandEvelyn’sVirusAccidentallyKilledHalf
theWorld(2039) page51
Vignette2 TheEleven-MinuteCyberwar(2055) 74
Vignette3 TargetingtheNuclear-MissileSubmarines(2054) 98
Vignette4 HowJimandEvelynWerePreventedfromKilling
HalftheWorld(2051) 163
Vignette5 NewBiologicalFrontiersinaCaribbeanRepublic
(2079) 237
Vignette6 TheFirstTrue“WorldLaw”(2081) 247
Vignette7 GoingtoWaroverSunlight?(2076) 256
Vignette8 CoolingaPlanet(2133) 284
Vignette9 ASatisfyingView:GuaranteedMinimumIncome
attheGlobalLevel(2113) 296
Vignette10 TheUNArmyNeutralizesaGenocide(2077) 302
Vignette11 HowCollectiveSecurityBlockedRogueAction
byaGreatPower(2139) 307
ix