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Grade Expectations
How Marks and Education PoliciEs sHaPE studEnts’ aMbitions
while enrolment in tertiary education increased dramatically over the past decades, many university-aged students Grade Expectations
do not enrol, nor do they expect to earn a university degree. although it is important to promote high expectations for
further education, it is equally crucial to ensure that students’ expectations are well-aligned with their actual abilities.
How Marks and Education PoliciEs
in 2009, students in 21 Pisa-participating countries and economies were asked about their expected educational
attainment and the marks they received in school. this analysis of Pisa data finds that students who expect to complete
sHaPE studEnts’ aMbitions
a university degree show significantly better performance in mathematics and reading when compared to students
who do not expect to earn such a university degree.
However, performance is only one of the factors that determine expectations. on average across most countries and
economies, girls and socio-economically advantaged students tend to hold more ambitious expectations than boys
and disadvantaged students who perform just as well. through marks, teachers reward skills that are important for
student learning, but also others that are less relevant. Marks become an important source of information for students
as they rely on marks to develop their expectations.
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Grade Expectations: How Marks and Education Policies Shape Students’ Ambitions reveals some of the factors that r
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influence students’ thinking about further education. the report also suggests what teachers and education policy d
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makers can do to ensure that more students have the skills, as well as the motivation, to succeed in higher education. E
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Contents e
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chapter 1. what do students expect to do after upper secondary school? a
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chapter 2. what behaviours do teachers reward? io
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chapter 3. what is the relationship between marks and educational expectations? s
chapter 4. Policy recommendations H
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tHE oEcd ProGraMME For intErnational studEnt assEssMEnt (Pisa) k
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Pisa focuses on young people’s ability to use their knowledge and skills to meet real-life challenges. this orientation reflects a change a
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in the goals and objectives of curricula themselves, which are increasingly concerned with what students can do with what they learn d
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at school and not merely with whether they have mastered specific curricular content. Pisa’s unique features include its: d
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– Policy orientation, which highlights differences in performance patterns and identifies features common to high-performing students, a
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schools and education systems by linking data on learning outcomes with data on student characteristics and other key factors io
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that shape learning in and outside of school. P
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– Innovative concept of “literacy”, which refers both to students’ capacity to apply knowledge and skills in key subject areas and lic
to their ability to analyse, reason and communicate effectively as they pose, interpret and solve problems in a variety of situations. iE
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– Relevance to lifelong learning, which goes beyond assessing students’ competencies in school subjects by asking them to report sH
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on their motivation to learn, their beliefs about themselves and their learning strategies. P
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– Regularity, which enables countries to monitor their progress in meeting key learning objectives. st
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– Breadth of geographical coverage and collaborative nature, which, in Pisa 2009, encompasses the 34 oEcd member countries d
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and 41 partner countries and economies. nt
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Please cite this publication as: bit
OECD (2012), Grade Expectations: How Marks and Education Policies Shape Students’ Ambitions, PISA, OECD Publishing. io
n
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264187504-en s
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Programme for International Student Assessment
2012
isbn 978-92-64-18750-4
98 2012 09 1P
PISA
Grade Expectations
How Marks and Education PoliciEs
sHaPE studEnts’ aMbitions
This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions
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Please cite this publication as:
OECD (2012), Grade Expectations: How Marks and Education Policies Shape Students’ Ambitions, PISA,
OECD Publishing.
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ISBN 978-92-64-18750-4 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-18752-8 (PDF)
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Foreword
The expansion of the knowledge-based economy and technological progress has created a large market of highly paid jobs for
individuals who are highly skilled. Moreover, in much of the industrialised world, the demand for highly-skilled individuals is rising
faster than supply, as mirrored in rising wage premia on university-level qualifications. Leveraging the talent of all individuals,
whatever their social background, must therefore be an important goal for educators and policy makers alike.
This PISA report provides a first systematic attempt to examine the performance of students in school jointly with the expectations
they have for their own educational future. First of all, the range of educational expectations which the report reveals is striking:
in Korea, four out of five 15-year-olds expect to graduate from university, while in Latvia it is just one out of four. Second, given
the changes in skill requirements in most labour-markets, and the rapidly rising number of university graduates, the educational
expectations of students in school have remained surprisingly stable. Third, while, overall, performance on PISA tends to be
associated with educational expectations, the data show that not all 15-year-olds with advanced knowledge and skills aspire to
high levels of further education and not all 15-year-olds who aspire to a university degree possess the knowledge and skills needed
to pursue such pathways successfully. Such mismatches between expectations and actual abilities can result not just in personal
disappointments but also incur important economic and social costs.
While performance in school is an important factor shaping students educational expectations, there are worrying signs that other
contextual factors interfere with this relationship. In most countries and economies, boys and socio-economically disadvantaged
students tend to hold far less ambitious expectations than girls and socio-economically advantaged students who perform just as well.
The findings of this report have far-reaching implications. Students who hold ambitious – yet realistic – expectations about their
educational prospects are more likely to put effort into their learning and make better use of the educational opportunities available
to them to achieve their goals. Therefore educational expectations, in part, become self-fulfilling prophecies. Education systems
need to strike a careful balance between promoting ambitious expectations among students – because the labour-market demand
for high-level skills is surging and will probably continue to grow in the future – while not neglecting those students who aim for
a smooth transition from upper secondary school into the labour market. School systems also need clearly marked occupational
pathways and high-quality information, guidance and support so that they understand the demands of the labour market and have
the kinds of skills that employers need.
Since many 15-year-old students have only limited understanding of their underlying skills and potential to succeed in higher
education and in the labour market, school marks are an important source of information for students about their potential success
in subsequent education. Not least, in many countries and economies, marks directly determine the educational opportunities
available to students and thus contribute to students’ eventual educational attainment and labour market prospects because, in
many countries, student marks help to determine access to higher education.
Perhaps the most crucial finding of the report is that socio-economically advantaged students and girls are more likely to receive
better marks from their teachers, even when compared to socio-economically disadvantaged students or boys who perform equally
well in PISA and report similar attitudes and behaviours. What this suggests is that teachers give higher-than-expected marks to girls
and socio-economically advantaged students, possibly because they tend to reward, on top of performance and the set of attitudes
and behaviours that are measured by PISA, other attitudes and behaviours that girls and advantaged students are most likely to
adopt. Whatever the reason, inequalities in marking practices may lead to inequalities in educational expectations, and, later, to
inequalities in educational attainment and labour-market outcomes, thus perpetuating social disparities and reducing opportunities
for upward mobility, especially among disadvantaged boys.
Teachers can use marking practices to positively influence their students’ educational trajectories. For example, teachers can
develop in-class assessments throughout the year that clearly explore student mastery of different sets of skills; and they should mark
such assessments on the basis of proficiency in those specific skills, including both cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Teachers and
schools can best serve their students if they use marking practices that are objective and criterion-based, whereby teachers give
marks to students according to absolute levels of mastery rather than according to students’ performance relative to their peers.
They should also accompany quantitative marks with in-depth qualitative evaluations that explore students’ progress, strengths and
weaknesses, giving students the tools to develop the skills that matter for eventual success in further education and beyond.
School systems can encourage effective marking practices and align them with broader assessment policies. Because marks may
ensue such important consequences, effective marking practices can promote the kinds of classroom dynamics that enhance
learning. School systems can also evaluate how school marks fit with their broader assessment policies. Given that practically all
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GRADE EXPECTATIONS: HOW MARKS AND EDUCATION POLICIES SHAPE STUDENTS’ AMBITIONS © OECD 2012
FOREWORD
schools use marks to evaluate students, marks should be an important part of the general policy regarding assessment. An integrated
policy of assessment that covers student marks and standardised assessments will highlight the different forms of assessment and the
complementary nature of, for example, standardised assessments and criterion-based assessments conducted at the school level.
An integrated assessment and marking policy will also give teachers more clarity on what attitudes, behaviours and mastery of skills
should be rewarded through marks, and will allow students to have clearer and more specific information about their standing in
the learning process and what steps they should take to enhance their learning experience. School systems should thus promote
research that provides a complete picture of the assessments used in their school system, their purpose, and what schools, teachers
and students are doing with this information.
Last but not least, many education systems need to address inequalities in performance that are reflected in inequalities in
educational expectations. Where such inequalities are prevalent, opportunities for social mobility are limited, and societies lose
potentially valuable workers to an intergenerational cycle of deprivation and low expectations. The findings from this report show
that teachers reward proficiency, but they also suggest that teachers reward a large set of measureable and immeasurable student
characteristics. While some of these characteristics undoubtedly promote educational success and thus, by rewarding them,
teachers provide an extra set of useful information to students, other characteristics may have little to do with students’ chances of
completing a university degree or of excelling in the labour market. As such, inequalities in marking practices may unduly restrict
the opportunities some students have to acquire high-level skills and competencies and overcome social inequality.
This report was prepared at the OECD Directorate for Education with the support of the countries and economies participating
in PISA. The publication was drafted by Marilyn Achiron, Francesca Borgonovi and Guillermo Montt. Elizabeth Del Bourgo,
Juliet Evans and Elisabeth Villoutreix provided editorial and administrative input for the report. Peter Vogelpoel did the typesetting
and layout. Ildikó Balázsi, Michelle Bras Roth, Kwok-cheung Cheung, Poon Chew Leng, Ji Min Cho, Inge De Meyer, Ana Ferreira,
María Antonieta Gutierrez, Steve May, Júlia Miklovicˇová, Laura Palmerio, Rachel Perkins, Ursula Schwanter, Anabela Serrão, Mojca Straus,
Maree Telford, Sue Thompson and Susan Wee provided valuable input at various stages of the report. William Carbonaro, University
of Notre Dame, provided critical insight. The development of the report was steered by the PISA Governing Board, which is chaired by
Lorna Bertrand (United Kingdom).
The report is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.
Lorna Bertrand Barbara Ischinger
Chair of the PISA Governing Board Director for Education, OECD
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© OECD 2012 GRADE EXPECTATIONS: HOW MARKS AND EDUCATION POLICIES SHAPE STUDENTS’ AMBITIONS
FOREWORD
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Introduction to PISA and the Educational Career questionnaire ...................................................................................... 14
CHAPTER 1 WHAT DO STUDENTS EXPECT TO DO AFTER UPPER SECONDARY SCHOOL? ................................................ 17
Educational expectations across countries and economies ............................................................................................... 19
• Expectations of completing a university degree .............................................................................................................. 20
• Expectations of ending formal education at the upper secondary level ........................................................................... 28
Inequalities in expectations ................................................................................................................................................. 34
• Inequalities in expectations by socio-economic status .................................................................................................... 35
• Inequalities in expectations by gender ........................................................................................................................... 36
How graduation and enrolment rates are reflected in the expectations of 15-year-olds ................................................ 38
Perspectives on social mobility ........................................................................................................................................... 39
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................ 42
CHAPTER 2 WHAT BEHAVIOURS DO TEACHERS REWARD? ............................................................................................... 47
How countries grade their students: Marks in PISA .......................................................................................................... 49
Behaviours rewarded by marks ............................................................................................................................................ 52
Towards a model of marks .................................................................................................................................................... 54
Grade inflation ...................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................ 56
CHAPTER 3 WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKS AND EDUCATIONAL EXPECTATIONS? ............................... 61
Marks predict educational expectations ............................................................................................................................. 62
Marks can reduce inequalities in educational expectations .............................................................................................. 64
• Gender differences in marks and expectations ............................................................................................................... 64
• Socio-economic differences in marks and expectations ................................................................................................. 65
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................ 65
CHAPTER 4 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................................................... 67
ANNEX A THE EDUCATIONAL CAREER QUESTIONNAIRE .................................................................................................. 73
ANNEX B DATA TABLES ON EDUCATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND MARKS ........................................................................ 77
BOXES
Box 1.1 What are university and upper secondary school expectations? ........................................................................... 20
Box 1.2 Proficiency levels in the PISA 2009 reading assessment ....................................................................................... 24
Box 1.3 How PISA students do ten years after the assessment ........................................................................................... 26
Box 1.4 The NEET challenge (Not in Employment, Education or Training) ......................................................................... 29
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GRADE EXPECTATIONS: HOW MARKS AND EDUCATION POLICIES SHAPE STUDENTS’ AMBITIONS © OECD 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Box 1.5 Vocational education and training systems ........................................................................................................... 31
Box 1.6 Students who expect to pursue vocational post-secondary studies ....................................................................... 33
Box 1.7 Students who expect to end their education before completing upper secondary schooling ................................. 34
Box 1.8 Matching the demand for and the supply of skills ................................................................................................. 39

Box 2.1 Standard-Based Assessment, reforming marking schemes and practices in Korea ................................................. 52
Box 2.2 Effective marking practices .................................................................................................................................. 57
FIGURES
Figure 1.1 Percentage of students who expect to complete a university degree..................................................................... 21
Figure 1.2 Change in the percentage of students who expect to complete a university degree between 2003 and 2009 ........... 22
Figure 1.3 Percentage of students at or below PISA proficiency Level 2 and students at or above PISA proficiency
Level 4 in reading literacy .................................................................................................................................... 23
Figure 1.4 Percentage of low-performing students who expect to complete a university degree and percentage of
high-performing students who expect to complete at most an upper secondary level degree ............................... 25
Figure 1.5 Average percentage of students who expect to complete a university degree in school systems with and
without horizontal differentiation ......................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 1.6 Percentage of students in ISCED A and ISCED B/C programmes who expect to complete a university degree .......... 27
Figure 1.7 Percentage of students who expect to end their educational careers at the upper secondary level ....................... 32
Figure 1.8 Socio-economic differences in expectations of completing a university and upper secondary degree, before
and after adjusting for students’ reading and mathematics performance ............................................................... 36
Figure 1.9 Gender differences in expectations of completing a university and upper secondary degree, before and after
adjusting for student reading and mathematics performance ................................................................................ 37
Figure 1.10 Percentage of students who expect to complete a university degree and university graduation rates .................... 38
Figure 1.11 Percentage of students who expect upward or downward mobility ...................................................................... 40
Figure 1.12 Relationship between students’ expectations of upward mobility and change in enrolment in tertiary education.... 41
Figure 1.13 Relationship between students’ expectations of upward mobility and equity in reading performance ................... 41

Figure 2.1 Marking schemes across countries and economies ............................................................................................... 49
Figure 2.2 Percentage of students with failing marks in their language-of-assessment course................................................. 50
Figure 2.3 Distribution of marks received by students who passed their language-of-assessment course ............................... 51
Figure 2.4 Correlation between the marks students received in their language-of-assessment course
and their PISA reading score ................................................................................................................................ 53

Figure 3.1 Relationship between marks and expectations of completing a university degree, after accounting for
students’ academic characteristics ....................................................................................................................... 63
Figure 3.2 Change in the gender-related odds difference in expectations of completing a university degree,
after accounting for students’ academic characteristics ........................................................................................ 64

Figure 4.1 Trends in routine and non-routine tasks in occupations in the United States, 1960 to 2002 .................................. 69
TABLES
Table B1.1 Percentage of students who expect to complete a university degree, by ISCED type and ISCED level programme .... 78
Table B1.2 Reading performance of students who do and do not expect to complete a university degree .............................. 80
Table B1.3 Mathematics performance of students who do and do not expect to complete a university degree ...................... 82
Table B1.4 Students with unrealistic expectations and potentially lost talent .......................................................................... 84
Table B1.5 Student expectations in school systems with and without horizontal differentiation ............................................. 85
Table B1.6 Relationship between low-performing students’ experience in schools, school attributes, background
characteristics and students’ PISA reading scores ................................................................................................. 86
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© OECD 2012 GRADE EXPECTATIONS: HOW MARKS AND EDUCATION POLICIES SHAPE STUDENTS’ AMBITIONS
TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table B1.7 Relationship between high-performing students’ experience in schools, school attributes, background
characteristics and students’ expectation of completing a university degree ......................................................... 88
Table B1.8 Percentage of students who expect to complete an upper secondary degree, but not more, by ISCED type
and ISCED level programme ................................................................................................................................ 91
Table B1.9 Students who expect to drop out before completing upper secondary education and students who expect
to obtain a vocational post-secondary degree ...................................................................................................... 93
Table B1.10 Socio-economic differences in expectations of completing a university degree .................................................... 94
Table B1.11 Socio-economic differences in expectations of completing, at most, upper secondary school .............................. 95
Table B1.12 Gender differences in expectations of completing a university degree ................................................................. 96
Table B1.13 Gender differences in expectations of completing, at most, upper secondary school ........................................... 97
Table B1.14 Percentage of students who expect to complete a university degree, enrolment and graduation rates ................... 98
Table B1.15 Patterns of expectations of upward and downward mobility ................................................................................ 99
Table B1.16 Gross tertiary enrolment ratios and average growth in enrolment ratios from 1980 to 2009 .................................. 101

Table B2.1 How countries and economies use and distribute marks to students, in the local scale ........................................ 103
Table B2.2 How countries and economies use and distribute marks to students, in a comparable scale ................................. 105
Table B2.3 Correlation between the marks received by students in their language-of-assessment course and student
characteristics ...................................................................................................................................................... 107
Table B2.4 Correlation between the marks received by students in their language-of-assessment course and student
characteristics, after accounting for students’ PISA reading scores ........................................................................ 109
Table B2.5 Within-school correlation between the marks received by students in their language-of-assessment course and
student characteristics .......................................................................................................................................... 111
Table B2.6 Within-school correlation between the marks received by students in their language-of-assessment course
and student characteristics, after accounting for students’ PISA reading scores ..................................................... 118
Table B2.7 How students’ learning strategies, approaches to learning, engagement and background characteristics relate
to the marks they receive in their language-of-assessment course ......................................................................... 124
Table B2.8 The types of schools that overestimate the marks they give to students in their language-of-assessment course with
respect to students’ PISA reading scores, learning strategies, approaches to learning and attitudes towards school ... 127

Table B3.1 Relationship between students’ information about their own performance and prospects and their expectation
of completing a university degree ........................................................................................................................ 129
Table B3.2 Relationship between students’ information about their own performance and prospects, contextual effects,
and their expectation of completing a university degree ...................................................................................... 130
Table B3.3 Relationship between students’ marks, performance and programme, background characteristics, contextual
effects, and expectation of completing a university degree .................................................................................. 131
Table B3.4 Relationship between students’ marks, other tests, performance and programme, background characteristics,
contextual effects, and expectation of completing a university degree ................................................................. 133
Table B3.5 Relationship between students’ background characteristics and their expectation of completing a university
degree ................................................................................................................................................................. 135
Table B3.6 Relationship between students’ background characteristics, performance and programme, and their expectation
of completing a university degree ........................................................................................................................ 136
Table B3.7 Relationship between students’ marks, background characteristics and their expectation of completing
a university degree .............................................................................................................................................. 137
Table B3.8 Relationship between students’ background characteristics, information about their performance and prospects,
and their expectation of completing a university degree ...................................................................................... 138
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Executive Summary
The expansion of the knowledge-based economy and technological progress has created a large market of highly paid
jobs for individuals who are highly skilled. Individuals who attend university receive substantial economic payoffs
and societies also benefit from a highly skilled workforce.
Enrolment in tertiary education has increased dramatically in the past decades: 50% or more of university-age young adults are
enrolled in higher education. However, many students still do not enrol in tertiary education nor expect to complete a university
degree. The fact that not all students are willing and able to attend university creates a challenge for education systems. While
it is important to promote high educational expectations among students to maximise the economic opportunities available in a
knowledge-based economy, it is equally important to leverage expectations and ensure that students form realistic expectations.
Mismatches between expectations and actual abilities can result in economic and social costs.
Countries, and regions within countries, vary in the percentage of students who expect to complete a university degree.
In 2009, students in 21 of the 75 countries and economies that participated in the Programme for International Student Assessment
(PISA) were asked about their expected educational attainment. In nine countries, over 50% of 15-year-old students expected to
complete a university degree; in Korea, four out of five students expected to graduate from university. In Latvia, by contrast, one out
of four students expected to graduate from university, while in Austria, Belgium (Flemish Community), Macao-China and Slovenia
less than 40% did. Expectations of completing university remained relatively stable between 2003 and 2009, but Austria, Iceland,
Mexico, New Zealand and Poland recorded a statistically significant increase in students’ expectations of completing a university
degree. These expectations did not change between 2003 and 2009 in Australia, Belgium (Flemish Community), Ireland, Korea,
Latvia, Portugal and the Slovak Republic, and declined in Hungary, Italy, Hong Kong-China and Macao-China.
Students who expect to complete a university degree show significantly better performance in mathematics and reading
when compared to students who do not expect to earn such a degree. However, in many countries and economies,
expectations of graduating from university do not match students’ performance or their education and labour-market
prospects.
The difference in reading performance between students who expect to complete a university degree and those who do not is
most pronounced in Australia, Austria, Belgium (Flemish Community), Croatia, Hungary and the Slovak Republic. This difference
is smaller – yet still marked – in Hong Kong-China and Macao-China. While performance is closely associated with educational
expectations, sizeable proportions of students hold misaligned expectations. For example, the percentage of low-performing students
who expect to complete a university degree is relatively high in Australia, Ireland, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore and
Trinidad and Tobago, even though these students are less likely to enrol in higher education and complete a university degree.
In contrast, a large proportion of high-performing students in Austria, Iceland, Italy and the Slovak Republic expect to finish their
educational careers in upper secondary school, implying a potential loss of valuable talent to the economy and society.
Engagement with school can help to promote expectations of completing a university degree among high-performing
students; it can also lead to better performance among low-performing students that, in turn, can result in a better
alignment between expectations and ability.
School systems with a high percentage of low-performing students who expect to complete a university education face the challenge
of improving student performance to the extent that all students who expect to pursue a university education have a good chance
of completing a university degree. These school systems can capitalise on students’ motivation and their intention to continue on to
higher education by improving students’ engagement with school, which, in turn, can lead to better performance. School systems
with a comparatively large proportion of high-performing students who expect to complete, at most, an upper secondary degree
should provide opportunities for these students to raise their expectations so as to avoid a potential loss of talent for the economy
and society. This can also be accomplished by promoting these students’ engagement with school and by ensuring that any selection
into different education programmes, such as academic or vocational, is based on merit.
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GRADE EXPECTATIONS: HOW MARKS AND EDUCATION POLICIES SHAPE STUDENTS’ AMBITIONS © OECD 2012