Peter Garretson

174 Pages·2010·4.03 MB·English

Sky’s No Limit
SKY’S NO LIMIT:
SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER,
THE NEXT MAJOR STEP IN THE
INDO-US STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP?
Peter A. Garretson
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
No. 1, Development Enclave
Rao Tula Ram Marg,
New Delhi – 110 010.
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Peter A. Garretson
** DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this academic research paper are those
of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States
government, or any subsidiary department or organisation, the Republic of India,
CFR or IDSA.
ISBN : 81-86019-71-5
First Published: August 2010
Price : Rs 299/-
Published by: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg,
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Sky’s No Limit
C
ONTENTS
AAAAACCCCCKKKKKNNNNNOOOOOWWWWWLLLLLEEEEEDDDDDGGGGGEEEEEMMMMMEEEEENNNNNTTTTTSSSSS...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................55555
OOOOOVVVVVEEEEERRRRRVVVVVIIIIIEEEEEWWWWW..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................88888
IIIIINNNNNTTTTTRRRRROOOOODDDDDUUUUUCCCCCTTTTTIIIIIOOOOONNNNN .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................99999
BBBBBAAAAACCCCCKKKKKGGGGGRRRRROOOOOUUUUUNNNNNDDDDD..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1111111111
AAAAA PPPPPOOOOOLLLLLIIIIICCCCCYYYYYMMMMMAAAAAKKKKKEEEEERRRRR’’’’’SSSSS IIIIINNNNNTTTTTRRRRROOOOODDDDDUUUUUCCCCCTTTTTIIIIIOOOOONNNNN TTTTTOOOOO.................................................................................................................................. 1111177777
SSSSSPPPPPAAAAACCCCCEEEEE-----BBBBBAAAAASSSSSEEEEEDDDDD SSSSSOOOOOLLLLLAAAAARRRRR PPPPPOOOOOWWWWWEEEEERRRRR
AAAAANNNNN EEEEEVVVVVAAAAALLLLLUUUUUAAAAATTTTTIIIIIOOOOONNNNN OOOOOFFFFF SSSSSPPPPPAAAAACCCCCEEEEE-----BBBBBAAAAASSSSSEEEEEDDDDD SSSSSOOOOOLLLLLAAAAARRRRR PPPPPOOOOOWWWWWEEEEERRRRR ........................................ 2222277777
IIIIINNNNN TTTTTHHHHHEEEEE CCCCCOOOOONNNNNTTTTTEEEEEXXXXXTTTTT OOOOOFFFFF CCCCCUUUUURRRRRRRRRREEEEENNNNNTTTTT IIIIIMMMMMPPPPPOOOOORRRRRTTTTTAAAAANNNNNTTTTT
PPPPPRRRRROOOOOBBBBBLLLLLEEEEEMMMMMSSSSS OOOOONNNNN TTTTTHHHHHEEEEE PPPPPOOOOOLLLLLIIIIICCCCCYYYYYMMMMMAAAAAKKKKKEEEEERRRRR’’’’’SSSSS AAAAAGGGGGEEEEENNNNNDDDDDAAAAA
IIIIISSSSS TTTTTRRRRRUUUUUEEEEE CCCCCOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPEEEEERRRRRAAAAATTTTTIIIIIOOOOONNNNN OOOOONNNNN SSSSSTTTTTRRRRRAAAAATTTTTEEEEEGGGGGIIIIICCCCC............................................................................................................................. 6666644444
TTTTTEEEEECCCCCHHHHHNNNNNOOOOOLLLLLOOOOOGGGGGIIIIIEEEEESSSSS PPPPPOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSIIIIIBBBBBLLLLLEEEEE?????
AAAAA DDDDDIIIIISSSSSCCCCCUUUUUSSSSSSSSSSIIIIIOOOOONNNNN AAAAANNNNNDDDDD EEEEEVVVVVAAAAALLLLLUUUUUAAAAATTTTTIIIIIOOOOONNNNN OOOOOFFFFF................................................................................................................................................. 7777733333
VVVVVAAAAARRRRRIIIIIOOOOOUUUUUSSSSS RRRRREEEEESSSSSPPPPPOOOOONNNNNSSSSSIIIIIBBBBBLLLLLEEEEE AAAAAGGGGGEEEEENNNNNCCCCCIIIIIEEEEESSSSS AAAAANNNNNDDDDD
SSSSSTTTTTAAAAAKKKKKEEEEEHHHHHOOOOOLLLLLDDDDDEEEEERRRRRSSSSS;;;;; OOOOOFFFFF VVVVVAAAAARRRRRIIIIIOOOOOUUUUUSSSSS MMMMMOOOOODDDDDEEEEELLLLLSSSSS
FFFFFOOOOORRRRR IIIIINNNNNTTTTTEEEEERRRRRNNNNNAAAAATTTTTIIIIIOOOOONNNNNAAAAALLLLL CCCCCOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPEEEEERRRRRAAAAATTTTTOOOOONNNNN,,,,, SSSSSPPPPPAAAAACCCCCEEEEE,,,,,
EEEEENNNNNEEEEERRRRRGGGGGYYYYY AAAAANNNNNDDDDD IIIIINNNNNFFFFFRRRRRAAAAASSSSSTTTTTRRRRRUUUUUCCCCCTTTTTUUUUURRRRREEEEE DDDDDEEEEEVVVVVEEEEELLLLLOOOOOPPPPPMMMMMEEEEENNNNNTTTTT
PPPPPRRRRROOOOOPPPPPOOOOOSSSSSEEEEEDDDDD MMMMMOOOOODDDDDEEEEELLLLL FFFFFOOOOORRRRR HHHHHOOOOOWWWWW PPPPPOOOOOLLLLLIIIIICCCCCYYYYYMMMMMAAAAAKKKKKEEEEERRRRRSSSSS...................................................................... 7777766666
MMMMMIIIIIGGGGGHHHHHTTTTT SSSSSTTTTTRRRRRUUUUUCCCCCTTTTTUUUUURRRRREEEEE AAAAA BBBBBIIIIILLLLLAAAAATTTTTEEEEERRRRRAAAAALLLLL SSSSSPPPPPAAAAACCCCCEEEEE
SSSSSOOOOOLLLLLAAAAARRRRR PPPPPOOOOOWWWWWEEEEERRRRR DDDDDEEEEEVVVVVEEEEELLLLLOOOOOPPPPPMMMMMEEEEENNNNNTTTTT PPPPPRRRRROOOOOGGGGGRRRRRAAAAAMMMMMMMMMMEEEEE
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Peter A. Garretson
CCCCCOOOOONNNNNCCCCCLLLLLUUUUUSSSSSIIIIIOOOOONNNNN.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8888822222
AAAAAPPPPPPPPPPEEEEENNNNNDDDDDIIIIIXXXXX AAAAA.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8888888888
A D A E V
ISCUSSION ND VALUATIONOF ARIOUS
R A S
ESPONSIBLE GENCIESAND TAKEHOLDERS
UUUUUSSSSS GGGGGOOOOOVVVVVEEEEERRRRRNNNNNMMMMMEEEEENNNNNTTTTT SSSSSTTTTTAAAAAKKKKKEEEEEHHHHHOOOOOLLLLLDDDDDEEEEERRRRRSSSSS......................................................................................................................................................111110000000000
JJJJJOOOOOIIIIINNNNNTTTTT OOOOORRRRRGGGGGAAAAANNNNNSSSSS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111111111133333
IIIIINNNNNTTTTTEEEEERRRRRNNNNNAAAAATTTTTIIIIIOOOOONNNNNAAAAALLLLL SSSSSTTTTTAAAAAKKKKKEEEEEHHHHHOOOOOLLLLLDDDDDEEEEERRRRRSSSSS..........................................................................................................................................................................111111111155555
NNNNNOOOOONNNNN-----GGGGGOOOOOVVVVVEEEEERRRRRNNNNNMMMMMEEEEENNNNNTTTTT SSSSSTTTTTAAAAAKKKKKEEEEEHHHHHOOOOOLLLLLDDDDDEEEEERRRRRSSSSS.......................................................................................................................................111111111166666
AAAAAPPPPPPPPPPEEEEENNNNNDDDDDIIIIIXXXXX BBBBB ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111112222211111
A DISCUSSION AND EVALUATION OF VARIOUS
MODELS FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION,
SPACE, ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE
AAAAAPPPPPPPPPPEEEEENNNNNDDDDDIIIIIXXXXX CCCCC..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111115555511111
VARIOUS FIGURES ON COSTS
AAAAAPPPPPPPPPPEEEEENNNNNDDDDDIIIIIXXXXX DDDDD..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111115555555555
PROPOSED JOINT STATEMENT
AAAAAPPPPPPPPPPEEEEENNNNNDDDDDIIIIIXXXXX EEEEE ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111115555566666
SUMMARY OF KINGDON’S THEORY OF
AGENDA SETTING AND POLICYMAKING
AAAAAPPPPPPPPPPEEEEENNNNNDDDDDIIIIIXXXXX FFFFF ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111116666600000
LIST OF INTERVIEWS AND INTERACTIVE SESSIONS
BBBBBIIIIIBBBBBLLLLLIIIIIOOOOOGGGGGRRRRRAAAAAPPPPPHHHHHYYYYY......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111116666644444
AAAAABBBBBOOOOOUUUUUTTTTT TTTTTHHHHHEEEEE AAAAAUUUUUTTTTTHHHHHOOOOORRRRR...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................111117777722222
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Sky’s No Limit
A
CKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Author would like to thank his hosts at IDSA, his sponsors at
CFR, his family and friends, and those who were particularly supportive
in this project.
I would like to thank in particular my sponsors, both the Council on
Foreign Relations (CFR), and the Institute for Defence Studies and
Analyses (IDSA), as well as the support of the US Embassy New Delhi,
the Air Force Fellows Program, and Air Force International Affairs for
their administrative support.
In particular, at CFR, I would like to thank Ms. L. Camille Massey
and my other interviewers Mr. Carl J. Green and Dr. Edward L. Morse,
as well as Victoria Alekhine and Elizabeth Mathai who administered the
programme, and always provided me with, prompt, excellent support. I
would also like to thank Ambassador David C. Mulford who’s direct
engagement ensured the important support of the Embassy.
At IDSA, I would like to particularly thank Director General Sisodia,
Dr. Arvind Gupta, and Dr. Shanthie D’Souza, who accepted my
application and made the necessary arrangements through MOD and
MEA, as well as visiting fellow Col Pillay who also had a hand in this. I
also must thank Mr. Gopal Bhushan, Mr. Devi Prasad Karnik at the Indian
Embassy in DC, and Dr. V.K. Saraswat for smoothing the way for my
Visa and attachment.
Administratively, I am particularly indebted to Col Stewart Kowall,
the Air Attaché for approaching my proposed host institutions directly,
to CWO3 Sheila Horgan for providing important advance information
and set up, and to Col Frank Rindone, the Defense Attaché for finding
an appropriate way to attach me to the Embassy so that my family had
access to medical care and schooling, and to Col Rick White, the follow-
on Defense Attaché for his continued support. The entire DAO FSN
Staff also deserves a special thanks for their superb and prompt service,
particularly Sunil Bablani, Bhanu Pratap, and Naveen Rawat. And to Gary
and Mary-Lou Burnham, who were the best social sponsors imaginable,
and Janet Kowall and Susan Castonguay, who helped us know what to
expect. Also Ms. Hyla Pearson at AETC—one could not ask for a more
responsive public affairs officer. Also at the Embassy, a special thanks
goes to Mr. Eric Jones, and Ms. Heather Broman who provided much
insight with respect India’s energy and science establishments.
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Peter A. Garretson
I wish also to thank those who took time to help me when nobody
knew who should be managing the fellowship. In particular, Maj Susan
Airola-Skully, in AF/A1DLE for her tolerance and assistance, my
assignment team for releasing me, Lt Col Steve Hughes in SAF/IAPA
who took it on himself to find out how to get me and my family support
and was a champion, and Mr. Luke D. Whitney at AETC who took
initiative and sent the request message for attachment to the Embassy
when time was getting short. Also Ms. Betty Chatteau at the DoD passport
office, who stayed far after business hours near Christmas vacation to
help us get our passports and visas on short notice. The folks above
made the “consecutive series of miracles” happen.
I would also like to thank those who wrote letters on my behalf
both to CFR and to the Indian Government that ensured such outstanding
reception and access, as well as provided key personal and career advice.
My first thank you is to Ambassadors Jim and Lauren Moriarty, and LTC
Larry and Jackie Smith for providing so many useful leads and
introductions, and to the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) for hosting
two well-timed networking events. In particular, I owe a debt of gratitude
to Dr. Ashley Tellis, Dr. Sumit Ganguly, Mr. Joe McDade, Ms. Mitzi
Wertheim, Mr. John Mankins, Mr. Joe Burris, Mr. Matt Simmons, and to
Mr. Joseph D. Rouge, SES, Director National Security Space Office
(NSSO), Gen Mark F. Ramsay, Director, Air Force Strategic Planning,
Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Plans and Programs, Headquarters
U.S. Air Force, Dr. Ken Watman, SES, then Deputy Air Force Strategic
Planning, and Lt. Gen. Paul J. Selva, Assistant to the Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Mr. A. Volkman, Director, International
Cooperation, OSD/AT&L for writing on my behalf. And the support
of the latter would also not have been possible without the pro-active
intercession of Col Steve Hiss, Lt Col Brad Kinneer, and Col Steve Rust.
The support of my fellow caballeros also made this possible. Without
Col Mike “Green Hornet” Hornitschek, I would not even have known
about the CFR program. Without Lt Col Paul Damphousse’s help, I
would not have had critical meetings with Mr. Rouge or with Dr. Saraswat,
and he has continued the good SBSP advocacy in the US, even as Col
“Coyote” Smith takes it to Europe. I also want to thank all my colleagues
at IDSA, especially my cluster, for the education and stimulation they
provided, particularly Dr. Namrata Goswami, Zakir Hussain, Faizan S.
M. Ahmed who spent so much time educating me about the greater
context of India.
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Sky’s No Limit
Thanks also those who participated in my Fellows Presentation on
23 October 2009, particularly my Chair, Air Commodore (Ret) Jasjit
Singh, and my discussants, Dr. V. Siddhartha and Colonel Subodh Kumar.
I am also grateful to the wonderful military and defense minds at
IDSA who engaged me in their thinking, including Dr. Thomas Mathew,
Dr. G. Balachandran (accurately described as a “minefield of knowledge”),
Col DPK Pillay, Col Raj Shukla, Col Harinder Singh, Col Ali Ahmed,
Capt Alok Bansal, Col Gautam, Wg Cdr Ajey Lele, and particularly Wg
Cdr Venkatashmy Krishnappa, one of the finest strategic minds and most
insightful thinkers I have come across in my entire career.
I must also mention the wonderful support of my family, Darlene,
Marcus, Madeleine, and Alyssa that accepted a short notice and stressful
move to a distant land, immediately following the Mumbai 26/11 terrorist
attacks with less than certain information, and endured my lack of presence
in their lives for significant periods of time, and to my parents, Peter and
Jerri, that provided such wonderful support from back home.
Of course, I owe a particular inspirational thanks to Dr. APJ Abdul
Kalam, former President of India for his vision for a Global Space
2050, as well as that of Dr. Vikram Sarabhai, founder of the Indian
space programme for his vision of space serving society, and the particular
visions of Dr. Gerald K. O’Neill and Dr. Peter Glaser upon whom the
Industrial vision for space is founded.
But a very special, and unique thanks goes to Air Commodore (ret),
and former Chairman of Bharat Dynamics, Raghavan Gopalaswami,
without which neither this paper, nor my fellowship would have happened.
At 70+ years young, he runs circles around me with his tireless energy,
and desire to elevate his fellow citizens and the citizens of the world. A
collaborator, a co-strategist, a mentor, and a true patriot for India, and a
true rocket scientist, his help on everything from my application to my
placement to my interviews has literally been invaluable.
Peter A. Garretson
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Peter A. Garretson
O
VERVIEW
This paper provides a policymaker's overview of a highly scalable,
revolutionary, renewable energy technology, Space-Based Solar Power
(SBSP), and evaluates its utility within the context of the Indo-US strategic
partnership. After providing an overview of the concept and its
significance to the compelling problems of sustainable growth, economic
development, energy security and climate change, it evaluates the utility
of the concept in the context of respective Indian and US political context
and energy-climate trajectories. The paper concludes that a bilateral
initiative to develop Space-Based Solar Power is highly consistent with
the objectives of the Indo-US strategic partnership, and ultimately
recommends an actionable three-tiered programme to realize its potential.
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Sky’s No Limit
I
NTRODUCTION
Energy security, climate security, human security and the
competitiveness of one’s technical and industrial base are increasingly
becoming mainstream concerns for security policy-makers. As the
penalties of interstate conflict have become more widespread and serious
to populations, infrastructure and economies, and as the interstate system
has so far succeeded in limiting the scope of such conflicts, the
corresponding interconnectivity has given space to security planners to
focus more on shared threats to stability and security, and initiate proactive
and collective measures. When competitive national energies are subverted
within an overall cooperative system--sometimes called "coopetition"--
nations still pursue their security by seeking a technological edge. They
do this through one of two mutually exclusive security strategies: keeping
one's edge through innovation and restricted access, or technological
innovation through sharing and partnership.1 Generally, technically
competitive nations seek to maximise the differential between their own
industrial and military innovative capacity and those of potential
competitors. They actively protect domestic markets and seek to keep
jobs at home. These considerations are only rational to abandon if there
are larger direct or oblique gains. This paper examines the policy
mechanisms that will facilitate multiple security ends through a strategy
of partnership.
While space-based solar power (SBSP) is a civil and renewable energy
concept, it is also a legitimate topic of security discourse. There are several
reasons for this. First, neither the citizens of a country nor its government
are secure if they do not have access to a constant supply of energy.
Without a constant, predictable supply of energy, higher levels of complexity are not
sustainable – industry cannot take place, economies wither, cities die, scarcity
drives conflict and instability, and populations dwindle. More importantly,
a nation may not be able to defend its borders and its interests. Those
charged with guarding society are keenly aware of this relationship
between energy and security. This explains the second reason, which is
that part of the recent expression of interest of both countries has come
from within their respective defence establishments. Then one must be
mindful that most space technology, particularly enabling launch
technology,2 is dual use and has defence and proliferation implications.
Partnership on dual use technologies has its own security logic, as one
must consider who might feel threatened or excluded. Finally, a transition
to a regime of renewable energy based upon space solar power will have very significant
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