Perspectives on Sino-American Strategic Nuclear Issues

224 Pages·2008·1.458 MB·English

by  Christopher P. Twomey (eds.)

Perspectives on Sino-American
Strategic Nuclear Issues
Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies
James J. Wirtz
General Editor
Jeffrey A. Larsen
T.V. Paul
Brad Roberts
James M. Smith
Series Editors
INITIATIVES IN STRATEGIC STUDIES provides a bridge between the use of force or
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Perspectives on Sino-American Strategic Nuclear Issues
Edited by Christopher P. Twomey
Perspectives on Sino-American
Strategic Nuclear Issues
Edited by Christopher P. Twomey
PERSPECTIVES ON SINO-AMERICAN STRATEGIC NUCLEAR ISSUES
Copyright © Christopher P. Twomey, 2008.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2008 978-0-230-60660-9
All rights reserved.
First published in 2008 by
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ISBN 978-1-349-37393-2 ISBN 978-0-230-61316-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9780230613164
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Perspectives on Sino-American strategic nuclear issues / edited by
Christopher P. Twomey.
p. cm.—(Initiatives in strategic studies)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Nuclear weapons—Government policy—21st century. 2. East
Asia—Strategic aspects. 3. China—Strategic aspects. 4. China—
Military policy—21st century. 5. United States—Military policy—21st
century. 6. China—Foreign relations—United States. 7. United
States—Foreign relations—China. I. Twomey, Christopher P. II. Title.
III. Series.
UA10.P46 2007
355.02’170951—dc22 2007047142
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India.
First edition: July 2008
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Table of Contents
List of Tables vii
Acknowledgments ix
Section I: Theoretic Perspectives on
Dangers in Sino-American
Strategic Relations
1. Introduction: Dangers and Prospects in
Sino-American Strategic Nuclear Relations 3
Christopher P. Twomey
2. Lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis for
Nuclear Crisis Management and Their Implications
for U.S.-Chinese Relations 13
David A. Welch
Section II: Comparing National Views on
Strategic Context, National
Security Priorities, and Doctrines
3. The U.S.-China Strategic Relationship 41
Michael May
4. The Changing Strategic Context of Nuclear
Weapons and Implications for the
New Nuclear World Order 57
Major General Pan Zhenqiang (Retired)
5. Confronting Gathering Threats: U.S. Strategic Policy 73
Michael Nacht
vi Table of Contents
6. China’s Nuclear Weapon Policy 87
Jia Qingguo
7. U.S. Nuclear Posture Review and Beyond:
Implications for Sino-American Relations 93
James J. Wirtz
8. Chinese Nuclear Policy and the Future of
Minimum Deterrence 111
Yao Yunzhu
Section III: Regional Challenges and
Threat Reduction Policies
9. East Asia’s Nuclear Future 127
Yang Yi
10. Sino-Indian Strategic Relations 137
Shen Dingli
11. The Challenge of a Nuclear North Korea 153
Scott Snyder
12. Chinese Arms Control and Nonproliferation Policy 173
Gu Guoliang
13. Arms Control and Sino-U.S. Strategic Stability 185
Brad Roberts
14. Comparing Perspectives: Dangers to Avoid,
Prospects to Develop 201
Christopher P. Twomey
List of Contributors 211
Index 215
List of Tables
2.1 Generic Challenges of Nuclear
Crisis Management 21
2.2 Illustrative Cuban Missile Crisis
Management Pathologies (United States) 22
2.3 I llustrative Cuban Missile Crisis
Management Pathologies (USSR) 23
2.4 P otential Crisis Management
Pathologies: Hypothetical Future
Taiwan Strait Crisis (United States) 28
2.5 P olitical Crisis Management Challenges:
Hypothetical Future Taiwan Strait Crisis (PRC) 29
11.1 Estimates of North Korea’s Possible
Nuclear Stockpile 159
Acknowledgments
T
he United States and China share many interests in the twenty-first
century. They are also the two most important great powers in Asia
today, and this raises the potential for competition between them.
Should such competition occur, nuclear issues will serve as a back-
drop for all other security areas. This book squarely examines those
issues. If Sino-American security competition in Asia intensifies—by no
means likely, and certainly an outcome detrimental to both sides—it
will behoove all sides to understand the nature of the nuclear and
strategic dynamics between them.
At the broadest level, a deeper understanding of each side’s threat
perceptions can reduce misperceptions about the sources of security
policy in the other capital. More narrowly, increasing our under-
standing of crisis dynamics, red lines, and potential for escalation can
lead to stability in the unfortunate instance of any militarized crisis
between the two.
The Advanced Systems and Concepts Office at the U.S. Defense
Threat Reduction Agency presciently supported this book financially.
That office’s support of the broader project from which these chapters
emanate—the U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue—has produced not only
this volume but also funded annual conferences between the authors
and other analysts and scholars on this topic, which is entering its
fourth year. The contributions of Dr. Michael Wheeler, Dr. Kerry
Kartchner, Michael Urena, and in particular, David Hamon of that
office have been irreplaceable.
Any suchbook also depends on the contributions of numerous
others in the editorial process. The editor would like to express
appreciation for the work of Dr. Jeffery Larsen, and he is indebted
to Kali Shelor for her diligence in bringing the manuscript to clo-
sure and compiling a through index. Dr. Peter Lavoy and Professor
James Wirtz provided sound guidance from the earliest conception
of the manuscript and through to its final structuring. Toby Wahl
at Palgrave Macmillan recognized the importance of the topic at an
x Acknowledgments
early date. All their contributions have helped to improve the final
manuscript significantly.
It is the editor’s sincerest hope that the issues raised in this book
will decline in importance over time, and that the prospects for coop-
eration assessed in some of the chapters will overwhelm the dangers
highlighted in others. If this book increases our understanding of
these issues in even a small way on their way to obsolescence, then its
contribution would be beyond the highest aspirations of the editor.
Monterey, California, 2007