Perception and misperception in international politics PDF
Preview Perception and misperception in international politics
118102-Jervis Perception and Misperception in International Politics Written under the auspices of the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University Robert Jervis Perception and Misperception in International Politics PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS Princeton, New Jersey Copyright © 1976 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, Chichester, West Sussex ALL RIGHTS RESERVED Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Pubucation Data Jervis, Robert, 1940- Perception and misperception in international politics. Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. International relations—Research. I. Title. JX1291.J47 327'.01'9 76-3259 ISBN 0-691-05656-0 ISBN 0-691-10049-7 (pbk.) This book has been composed in Linotype Times Roman Princeton University Press books are printed on acid-free paper and meet the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources http://pup.princeton.edu Printed in the United States of America 16 18 20 19 17 ISBN-13: 978-0-691-10049-4 (pbk.) ISBN-10: 0-691-10049-7 (pbk.) To Kathe Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xii INTRODUCTION 3 Part I The Setting Chapter One Perception and the Level of Analysis Problem 13 Do Perceptions Matter? 13 The International Environment 18 Compulsion in Extreme Circumstances? 19 Domestic Determinants 21 The Bureaucracy 24 Perceptions, Reality, and a Two-Step Model 28 Chapter Two External Stimuli, Internal Processes, and Intentions 32 Introduction 32 External versus Internal Sources of Behavior 35 Intentions 48 Inaccurate Predictions about One’s Own Behavior 54 Chapter Three Deterrence, the Spiral Model, and Intentions of the Adversary 58 Two Views of International Relations and the Cold War 58 Deterrence 58 The Spiral Model 62 Psychological Dynamics 67 Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Problems with Incrementalism 76 Self-Defeating Power 78 Prescriptions 82 Universal Generalizations? 84 Evidence against the Spiral Model 84 Evidence against Deterrence 90 viii—Contents Deterrence and World War 11; Spiral Model and World War I 94 When Will Force and Threats Work? The Decision-Maker’s Choice 96 When Will Force and Threats Work? Hypotheses 100 Perceptions of Intention and Analyses of What Is at Stake 102 Other Explanations for the Differences between the Spiral and Deterrence Theories 107 Differences in Values 108 Claims for a Dominant Strategy 109 Dangers of Applying Gradualism to an Aggressive Adversary 110 Suggestions 111 Part II Processes of Perception Chapter Four Cognitive Consistency and the Interaction between Theory and Data 117 Consistency: Rational and Irrational 117 Rational Consistency 119 Cognitive-Affective Balance 120 Source-Message Interaction 122 Implications 124 Irrational Consistency—Avoidance of Value Trade-Offs 128 Assimilation of Information to Pre-existing Beliefs 143 The Impact of Expectations on Perceptions 145 The Necessary Interdependence of Facts and Theories 154 The Interdependence between Facts and Theories in Science 156 The Impact of Categorization 162 Different Theories, Different Perceptions 163 The Emergence of New Theories and Images 165 Cognitive Distortion and Implications for Decision-Making 172 Failure to Recognize the Influence of Pre-Existing Beliefs 181 Contents—ix Excessive and Premature Cognitive Closure 187 Implications for Decision-Making 191 Confidence, Commitment, and Ambiguity 195 Implications for Decision-Making 201 Chapter Five The Impact of the Evoked Set 203 Evoked Set in the Absence of Communication 203 Communication and Estimating the Evoked Set of the Other 205 Misunderstandings within a Government: Differences in Information, Perspectives, and Time Lags 206 Uneven Distribution of Information within Governments 209 Differences in Evoked Set Caused by Differences in Concerns 211 Conclusions 215 Chapter Six How Decision-Makers Learn from History 217 Introduction 217 Lessons as Predispositions 222 Alternative Explanations 225 The Learning Process 227 Organizational Learning 238 Events from Which People Learn Most 239 Firsthand Experiences 239 Some Consequences 243 Alternative Explanations 246 Early Experiences and Generational Effects 249 Generational Effects 253 Alternative Explanations 257 Delayed Impact on Policy 260 Events Important to the Person’s State or Organization 262 Revolutions 262 The Last War 266 Range of Available Alternative Analogies 270 What Lessons Do People Learn? 271 Impact of Constant Factors 271 Lessons about Specific Actors 274 Reactions to Failure 275
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