Perception and Misperception in International Politics

544 Pages·2017·11.8 MB·English

by  Robert Jervis

Perception and Misperception
in International Politics
Written under the auspices of the
Center for International Affairs,
Harvard University
Robert Jervis
Perception and Misperception
in International Politics
With a new preface by the author
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
Princeton and Oxford
Copyright © 1976 Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey
In the United Kingdom: Princeton Univeristy Press,
6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR
New paperback edition, 2017
Paperback ISBN: 978- 0- 691- 17585- 0
Library of Congress ControL number: 2016959620
This book has been composed in Linotype Times Roman
Princeton University Press books are printed on acid-f ree paper and meet the guidelines
for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production Guidelines for
Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources
press.princeton.edu
Printed in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To Kathe

viii—Contents
Deterrence and World War 11; Spiral Model
and World War I 94
When Will Force and Threats Work? The
Decision-Maker’s Choice 96
When Will Force and Threats Work? Hypotheses 100
Perceptions of Intention and Analyses of
What Is at Stake 102
Other Explanations for the Differences between
the Spiral and Deterrence Theories 107
Differences in Values 108
Claims for a Dominant Strategy 109
Dangers of Applying Gradualism to an
Aggressive Adversary 110
Suggestions 111
Part II
Processes of Perception
Chapter Four
Cognitive Consistency and the Interaction
between Theory and Data 117
Consistency: Rational and Irrational 117
Rational Consistency 119
Cognitive-Affective Balance 120
Source-Message Interaction 122
Implications 124
Irrational Consistency—Avoidance of
Value Trade-Offs 128
Assimilation of Information to Pre-existing Beliefs 143
The Impact of Expectations on Perceptions 145
The Necessary Interdependence of
Facts and Theories 154
The Interdependence between Facts and
Theories in Science 156
The Impact of Categorization 162
Different Theories, Different Perceptions 163
The Emergence of New Theories
and Images 165
Cognitive Distortion and Implications for
Decision-Making 172
Failure to Recognize the Influence of
Pre-Existing Beliefs 181
Contents—ix
Excessive and Premature Cognitive Closure 187
Implications for Decision-Making 191
Confidence, Commitment, and Ambiguity 195
Implications for Decision-Making 201
Chapter Five
The Impact of the Evoked Set 203
Evoked Set in the Absence of Communication 203
Communication and Estimating the Evoked
Set of the Other 205
Misunderstandings within a Government: Differences
in Information, Perspectives, and Time Lags 206
Uneven Distribution of Information within
Governments 209
Differences in Evoked Set Caused by Differences
in Concerns 211
Conclusions 215
Chapter Six
How Decision-Makers Learn from History 217
Introduction 217
Lessons as Predispositions 222
Alternative Explanations 225
The Learning Process 227
Organizational Learning 238
Events from Which People Learn Most 239
Firsthand Experiences 239
Some Consequences 243
Alternative Explanations 246
Early Experiences and Generational Effects 249
Generational Effects 253
Alternative Explanations 257
Delayed Impact on Policy 260
Events Important to the Person’s State or
Organization 262
Revolutions 262
The Last War 266
Range of Available Alternative Analogies 270
What Lessons Do People Learn? 271
Impact of Constant Factors 271
Lessons about Specific Actors 274
Reactions to Failure 275