People, Population Change and Policies European Studies of Population Volume 16/2 The book series European Studies of Population (ESPO) aims at disseminating populationand family research,with specialrelevancefor Europe.Itmay analyse past,presentand/orfuturetrends,aswellastheirdeterminantsandconsequences. The character of the series is multidisciplinary, including formal demographic analyses,aswellassocial,economicand/orhistoricalpopulationandfamilystudies. The following types of studies are of primary importance: (a) internationally rel- evant studies, (b) European comparative studies, (c) innovative theoretical and methodological studies, and (d) policy-relevant scientific studies. The series may includemonographs,editedvolumesandreferenceworks. The book series is published under the auspices of the European Association for PopulationStudies(EAPS). EditorialBoard: CharlotteHöhn,BundesinstitutfürBevölkerungsforschung,(BiB),Wiesbaden,Germany JaninaJó´zwiak,EuropeanAssociationforPopulationStudies(EAPS) NicoKeilman,StatisticsNorway,Oslo,Norway MauraMisiti,IstitutodiRecerchesullaPopolazioneelePoliticheSociali(IRPPS),Roma,Italy Jean-MarcRohrbasser,InstitutNationald’EtudesDémographiques(INED),Paris,France ZsoltSpéder,DemographicResearchInstitute(DRI),Budapest,Hungary AndresVikat,PopulationActivitiesUnit,(ECE,UnitedNations),Geneva,Switzerland FransWillekens,NetherlandsInterdisciplinaryDemographicInstitute(NIDI),TheHague,Netherlands AdvisoryBoard: InesAlberdi(UniversidadComplutense,Madrid,Spain),HerwigBirg(InstitutfürBevölkerungsforschung, Bielefeld, Germany), Graziella Caselli (Università degli studi di Roma“La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy), DavidColeman(DepartmentofAppliedSocialStudiesandSocialResearch,Oxford,UnitedKingdom), JackHabib(Brookdate Institute, Jerusalem,Israel), Kalev Katus(EstonianInteruniversity Population ResearchCentre,Talinn,Estonia),MáireNíBhrolcháin(DepartmentofSocialStatistics,Southampton, UnitedKingdom),VitaPruzan(DanishNationalInstituteofSocialResearch,Copenhagen,Denmark), Serge Scherbov (Vienna Institute ofDemography, Vienna, Austria), DavidSly (Florida State Univer- sity,Tallahassee,USA),TapaniValkonen(UniversityofHelsinki,Finland),JamesVaupel(MaxPlanck InstituteforDemographicResearch,Rostock,Germany). EditorialOffice: GijsBeets NetherlandsInterdisciplinary DemographicInstitute(NIDI) P.O.Box11650 NL–2502ARTheHague,Netherlands Phone.:+31703565200 Fax.:+31703647187 E-mail:[email protected] TechnicalEditor: JacquelinevanderHelm(NIDI) · · Charlotte Höhn Dragana Avramov Irena E. Kotowska Editors People, Population Change and Policies Lessons from the Population Policy Acceptance Study Vol. 2: Demographic Knowledge – Gender – Ageing Editors CharlotteHöhn FederalInstituteforPopulationResearch Wiesbaden Germany DraganaAvramov PopulationandSocialPolicyConsultants(PSPC) Brussels Belgium IrenaE.Kotowska WarsawSchoolofEconomics Warsaw Poland ISBN:978-1-4020-6610-8 e-ISBN:978-1-4020-6611-5 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2007938400 (cid:2)c 2008SpringerScience+BusinessMediaB.V. Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recording orotherwise,withoutwrittenpermissionfromthePublisher,withtheexception ofanymaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeingentered andexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework. Printedonacid-freepaper. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springer.com Acknowledgement The two volumes of the work “People, Population Change and Policies: Lessons from PopulationPolicy AcceptanceStudy” are the finaloutcome of the DIALOG project.ThisprojectwasfundedbyEuropeanCommissionforthreeyearsinthe5th FrameworkProgramme. v Contents Part I Demographic Trends, Population Related Policies and General Attitudes 1 DemographicChangeandFamilyPolicyRegimes.................. 3 OsmoKontulaandIsmoSöderling 2 Demographic Knowledge and Evaluation ofDemographicTrends ......................................... 21 JürgenDorbritz 3 WhoShouldTakeCareforThem? ............................... 45 RalfMai,RobertNaderi,andPeterSchimany 4 ChangingAttitudesonPopulationTrendsandPolicies? ............ 65 JürgenDorbritz PartII ComparativeDelphi-study 5 2030:AnotherEurope? ......................................... 93 RossellaPalombaandPieroDell’Anno 6 ActionProgramsofSocio-politicalActors.........................109 AlfredBertschinger 7 MakingDialogPossible .........................................131 AdeleMennitiandMauraMisiti PartIII GenderRoles 8 Family-relatedGenderAttitudes.................................153 DimiterPhilipov 9 GenderandFertility............................................175 KerstinRuckdeschel vii viii Contents PartIV IntergenerationalSolidarityandElderly 10 AttitudesTowardsPopulationAgeingandOlderPeople ............195 Ronald C. Schoenmaeckers,Marc Callens, Lieve Vanderleyden, andLucieVidovi´cová 11 ActivatingOlderWorkers:PoliciesVersusOpinions andExpectations...............................................221 JaninaJó´zwiak,IrenaE.Kotowska,andAnitaAbramowska 12 OnlyFoolsRushIn?............................................245 LucieVidovi´cová,BeatriceElenaManea,andLadislavRabuˇsic PartV PolicyImplicationsandConclusions 13 The NeedtoAdaptandReformSocialPolicy:SettingtheStage forEffectivePopulation-friendlyPolicies..........................267 DraganaAvramovandRobertCliquet 14 Conclusions ...................................................287 CharlotteHöhn References.........................................................325 Index .............................................................335 Annex:CD-Rom Contributors AnitaAbramowska Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics, Poland [email protected] DraganaAvramov PopulationandSocialPolicyConsultants(PSPC),Brussels,Belgium [email protected] AlfredBertschinger SociologicalInstituteoftheUniversityofZurich,Zurich,Switzerland [email protected] MarcCallens ResearchCentreoftheFlemishGovernment(SVR),Brussels,Belgium [email protected] RobertCliquet PopulationandSocialPolicyConsultants(PSPC),Brussels,Belgium [email protected] PieroDell’Anno Istituto di ricerche sulla Popolazione e le Politiche Sociali, Consiglio Nazionale delleRicerche,Rome,Italy JürgenDorbritz FederalInstituteforPopulationResearch,Wiesbaden,Germany [email protected] CharlotteHöhn FederalInstituteforPopulationResearch,Wiesbaden,Germany [email protected] ix x Contributors JaninaJó´zwiak InstituteofStatisticsandDemography,WarsawSchoolofEconomics, Warsaw,Poland [email protected] OsmoKontula ThePopulationResearchInstitute,FamilyFederationofFinland,Helsinki,Finland osmo.kontula@vaestoliitto.fi IrenaE.Kotowska InstituteofStatisticsandDemography,WarsawSchoolofEconomics, Warsaw,Poland [email protected] RalfMai FederalInstituteforPopulationResearch,Wiesbaden,Germany [email protected] BeatriceElenaManea FacultyofSocialStudies,MasarykUniversity,Brno,CzechRepublic [email protected] AdeleMenniti Istituto di ricerche sulla Popolazione e le Politiche Sociali, Consiglio Nazionale delleRicerche,Rome,Italy [email protected] MauraMisiti Istituto di ricerche sulla Popolazione e le Politiche Sociali, Consiglio Nazionale delleRicerche,Rome,Italy [email protected] RobertNaderi FederalInstituteforPopulationResearch,Wiesbaden,Germany [email protected] RossellaPalomba Istituto di ricerche sulla Popolazione e le Politiche Sociali, Consiglio Nazionale delleRicerche,Rome,Italy [email protected] DimiterPhilipovÖsterreichischeAkademiederWissenschaften–Institutfür Demographie,Vienna,Austria [email protected]
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