People, Population Change and Policies European Studies of Population Volume 16/1 The book series European Studies of Population (ESPO) aims at disseminating populationand family research,with specialrelevancefor Europe.Itmay analyse past,presentand/orfuturetrends,aswellastheirdeterminantsandconsequences. The character of the series is multidisciplinary, including formal demographic analyses,aswellassocial,economicand/orhistoricalpopulationandfamilystudies. The following types of studies are of primary importance: (a) internationally rel- evant studies, (b) European comparative studies, (c) innovative theoretical and methodological studies, and (d) policy-relevant scientific studies. The series may includemonographs,editedvolumesandreferenceworks. The book series is published under the auspices of the European Association for PopulationStudies(EAPS). EditorialBoard: CharlotteHöhn,BundesinstitutfürBevölkerungsforschung,(BiB),Wiesbaden,Germany JaninaJó´zwiak,EuropeanAssociationforPopulationStudies(EAPS) NicoKeilman,StatisticsNorway,Oslo,Norway MauraMisiti,IstitutodiRecerchesullaPopolazioneelePoliticheSociali(IRPPS),Roma,Italy Jean-MarcRohrbasser,InstitutNationald’EtudesDémographiques(INED),Paris,France ZsoltSpéder,DemographicResearchInstitute(DRI),Budapest,Hungary AndresVikat,PopulationActivitiesUnit,(ECE,UnitedNations),Geneva,Switzerland FransWillekens,NetherlandsInterdisciplinaryDemographicInstitute(NIDI),TheHague,Netherlands AdvisoryBoard: InesAlberdi(UniversidadComplutense,Madrid,Spain),HerwigBirg(InstitutfürBevölkerungsforschung, Bielefeld, Germany), Graziella Caselli (Università degli studi di Roma“La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy), DavidColeman(DepartmentofAppliedSocialStudiesandSocialResearch,Oxford,UnitedKingdom), JackHabib(Brookdate Institute, Jerusalem,Israel), Kalev Katus(EstonianInteruniversity Population ResearchCentre,Talinn,Estonia),MáireNíBhrolcháin(DepartmentofSocialStatistics,Southampton, UnitedKingdom),VitaPruzan(DanishNationalInstituteofSocialResearch,Copenhagen,Denmark), Serge Scherbov (Vienna Institute ofDemography, Vienna, Austria), DavidSly (Florida State Univer- sity,Tallahassee,USA),TapaniValkonen(UniversityofHelsinki,Finland),JamesVaupel(MaxPlanck InstituteforDemographicResearch,Rostock,Germany). EditorialOffice: GijsBeets NetherlandsInterdisciplinary DemographicInstitute(NIDI) P.O.Box11650 NL–2502ARTheHague,Netherlands Phone.:+31703565200 Fax.:+31703647187 E-mail:[email protected] TechnicalEditor: JacquelinevanderHelm(NIDI) · · Charlotte Höhn Dragana Avramov Irena E. Kotowska Editors People, Population Change and Policies Lessons from the Population Policy Acceptance Study Vol. 1: Family Change Editors CharlotteHöhn FederalInstituteforPopulationResearch Wiesbaden Germany DraganaAvramov PopulationandSocialPolicyConsultants(PSPC) Brussels Belgium IrenaE.Kotowska WarsawSchoolofEconomics Warsaw Poland ISBN:978-1-4020-6608-5 e-ISBN:978-1-4020-6609-2 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2007938400 (cid:2)c 2008SpringerScience+BusinessMediaB.V. Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recording orotherwise,withoutwrittenpermissionfromthePublisher,withtheexception ofanymaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeingentered andexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework. Printedonacid-freepaper. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springer.com Acknowledgment The two volumes of the work “People, Population Change and Policies: Lessons from PopulationPolicy AcceptanceStudy” are the finaloutcome of the DIALOG project.ThisprojectwasfundedbyEuropeanCommissionforthreeyearsinthe5th FrameworkProgramme. v Contents 1 Introduction................................................... 1 CharlotteHöhn PartI TheoreticalBackground,MethodsandOpportunities forAnalysesoftheInternationalPopulationPolicyAcceptance StudyDatabase(IPPAS) 2 FromPopulationPolicyAcceptanceSurveystotheInternational Database ...................................................... 19 DraganaAvramovandRobertCliquet 3 SelectedStatisticalMethodstoAnalyseIPPAS..................... 47 MarcCallens 4 PathwaysofWelfareandPopulation-relatedPolicies ............... 59 BeatFux PartII AttitudesTowards(TheChangeof)TheFamily 5 AttitudesTowardsFormsofPartnership.......................... 93 MariettaPongraczandZsoltSpéder 6 Family Transformations in the Post-Communist Countries: AttitudesTowardChanges ......................................113 VladaStankunieneandAusraMaslauskaite PartIII Valueofchildren 7 MotivationtohaveChildreninEurope ...........................141 TinekeFokkemaandIngridEsveldt vii viii Contents 8 IntergenerationalChangesintheValueSysteminEurope ..........157 IrenaKowalskaandWiktoriaWróblewska 9 AttitudesandIntentionsTowardChildlessnessinEurope...........177 TomáˇsSobotkaandMariaRitaTesta PartIV FertilityIntentions 10 WillweWitnessanUpturninEuropeanFertility intheNearFuture? ............................................215 ChristineVanPeerandLadislavRabuˇsic 11 FertilityPreferencesandExpectationsRegardingOldAge..........243 KalevKatus,AllanPuurandAstaPõldma 12 TheInfluenceofEducationandFamilyPoliciesonAgeatFirstBirth 259 OsmoKontula PartV ReconciliationofWorkandFamily 13 PreferencesRegardingReconciliationofFamilyandProfessional LifeVersusReality .............................................279 MajdaCˇerniˇcIsteniˇcandAndrejKveder 14 Reconciliation of Work and Family Within Different InstitutionalSettings ...........................................299 IrenaE.KotowskaandAnnaMatysiak 15 Work-FamilyOrientationandFemaleLabourMarketParticipation .319 KalevKatus,AstaPõldmaandAllanPuur PartVI FamilyRelatedPolicies 16 FamilyPolicies:FinancialorInstitutionalMeasures?...............347 AnneliMiettinen,IngridEsveldtandTinekeFokkema 17 Anticipated Impact of Family Policies on FertilityBehaviour AmongtheChildlessandAmongOne-ChildParents ...............369 IngridEsveldt,TinekeFokkemaandAnneliMiettinen 18 PreferencesVersusActualFamilyPolicyMeasures.................391 NadaStropnik,JoˇzeSambtandJiˇrinaKocourková References.........................................................411 Index .............................................................431 Contributors DraganaAvramov PopulationandSocialPolicyConsultants(PSPC),Brussels,Belgium [email protected] LadislavRabuˇsic FacultyofSocialStudies,MasarykUniversityinBrno,CzechRepublic [email protected] MarcCallens ResearchCentreoftheFlemishGovernment(SVR),Brussels,Belgium [email protected] RobertCliquet PopulationandSocialPolicyConsultants(PSPC),Brussels,Belgium [email protected] IngridEsveldt Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, Netherlands [email protected] TinekeFokkema Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, Netherlands [email protected] BeatFux InstituteofSociology,UniversityofZurich,Zurich,Switzerland [email protected] CharlotteHöhn FederalInstituteforPopulationResearch,Wiesbaden,Germany [email protected] ix x Contributors MajdaCˇerniˇcIsteniˇc Scientific Research Centre at the Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts, SociomedicalInstitute,Ljubljana,Slovenia [email protected] KalevKatus EstonianInteruniversityPopulationResearchCentre,Tallinn,Estonia [email protected] JiˇrinaKocourková Department of Demography and Geodemography, Faculty of Science, Charles University,Prague,CzechRepublic [email protected] OsmoKontula PopulationResearchInstitute,Helsinki,Finland osmo.kontula@vaestoliito.fi IrenaE.Kotowska Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland [email protected] IrenaKowalska Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland [email protected] AndrejKveder UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEurope,PopulationActivityUnit,Geneva, Switzerland [email protected] AusraMaslauskaite DemographicResearchCentre,InstituteforSocialResearch,Vilnius,Lithuania [email protected] AnnaMatysiak Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland [email protected] AnneliMiettinen Miettinen, Population Research Institute, Family Federation of Finland, Helsinki, Finland anneli.miettinen@vaestoliitto.fi